Chuck Todd warned that President Donald Trump’s attacks on Sen. Lisa Murkowski could hasten a break from within the GOP, potentially tightening the path for Democrats to take control of the Senate—especially if an Alaska seat changes hands.
For a moment on Friday, the argument wasn’t about whether Sen. Lisa Murkowski would keep her seat in Alaska. It was about what happens if she doesn’t keep playing the same role in the Senate’s numbers.
Former NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd said President Donald Trump’s escalating attacks on Murkowski could push the math in a way Republicans can’t ignore. Todd warned that Trump’s approach makes it more likely that Democrats would need “3” seats rather than “4” to take control—an outcome Todd linked directly to Murkowski’s long-telegraphed ability to change how she caucuses.
“The more Trump goes after Murkowski. the more likely the real number Dems will need to take control of the Senate is ‘3’ not 4 — as she has hinted at before. she can decide to caucus with the other side if she chooses. ” Todd argued. emphasizing that the GOP currently holds a slim four-vote majority.
He added a second thread, tied to Alaska’s open seat politics. “And if a Dem (Peltola)wins the AK Senate seat, it would be on brand for her to say, ‘my state has indicated they want a Dem senate….’” Todd wrote.
Todd’s warning lands against a tense backdrop inside the Republican ranks. Alaska has a statewide “jungle” primary system in which all candidates compete together in the primary. and the top four advance to a ranked-choice general election. In this race, former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) currently leads in the polls over two-term incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK).
Peltola’s political rise in Alaska is part of why Trump’s focus on Murkowski has sharper consequences than it might otherwise. She became the first Democrat since 1972 to win Alaska’s statewide House seat in 2022, then lost reelection in a narrow contest in 2024.
Trump’s feud with Murkowski has deep roots. He has long attacked her following the Alaska Republican’s vote to impeach him after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. In 2022. Trump endorsed a GOP candidate to try to unseat Murkowski. but she survived the challenge and has remained in the Senate.
That puts the spotlight even more tightly on how many Republicans can stay lined up behind Trump—especially because Murkowski is one of only two GOP senators left who have defied him. The other is Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who is up for reelection this year.
Trump’s most recent push came at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s 2026 Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton. In that speech, he attacked Murkowski for not supporting his voter ID bill, the SAVE Act. “We have a few Republicans who are fighting it. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. You should call her and tell her to get on the ball. She’ll never win another election, I can tell you,” Trump fumed.
Todd’s warning ties the moments together: Trump targets Murkowski over the SAVE Act. Murkowski has already shown she is willing to stand apart from Trump. and the Senate’s razor-thin GOP majority leaves little room for miscalculation. In that setting. Todd’s central claim becomes harder to dismiss—if Murkowski chooses to caucus with Democrats. Todd said the number Democrats need to control the chamber could drop to “3” instead of “4. ” shifting the urgency of every election and every vote.
Whether Murkowski makes any change is a matter for her. But in Alaska, where the electorate is shaping the Senate race through open primaries and ranked-choice general elections, the possibility of a Democratic win by Peltola adds fresh pressure to an already unsettled Senate landscape.
And as Trump keeps pressing Murkowski in public, Todd’s argument leaves Republicans with a stark question: when the chamber’s margin is so small, how much leverage does one senator really have—and how much damage can be done before it snaps into a new reality?
Chuck Todd Donald Trump Lisa Murkowski Senate control caucusing Democrats Republicans Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan Alaska jungle primary ranked-choice general election SAVE Act voter ID Faith and Freedom Coalition Washington Hilton Susan Collins