After a couple of feel-good wins in Miami, the Braves can close the four-game set with another victory on Thursday night. Ha-Seong Kim returns to the lineup, and Chadwick Tromp makes his first start of the year as Atlanta takes aim at Sandy Alcantara. For Miam
The Braves have been carrying a little extra lift out of Miami, and Thursday night is the chance to turn that momentum into something more permanent: a clean finish to the four-game set.
Ha-Seong Kim is back in the lineup, returning after his absence. The pitching matchup is set too. Chadwick Tromp makes his first start of the year as Atlanta takes aim at Sandy Alcantara.
For the Marlins, the faces look familiar, but not identical. Owen Caissie is still in the lineup after he was shaken up on Dominic Smith’s “triple” last night. That’s the kind of detail that matters in a game like this, where one hit can change more than just a scoreline.
Miami’s lineup is also a near match to the one it used when it clobbered the Braves on Monday. The difference comes at first base: Christopher Morel is in for Connor Norby, and Caissie is dropped down to seventh. In other words, it’s recognizable—until you notice the exact places the Marlins changed.
Both teams are dealing with lineup novelty. The Marlins have 44 batting orders in 50 games coming into this one, while the Braves have used 37 batting orders in 50 games.
That matters when you look at the specific pitching context. Only the first five guys in Miami’s order have ever faced Spencer Strider. In 14 plate appearances against him. the combined line is a .212 wOBA and .287 xwOBA. with the better production coming from Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez while everyone else hasn’t yet shown anything positive.
For Atlanta, the situation flips with Alcantara’s durability and tenure. Everyone but Tromp has faced him at least once. with head-to-head matchups ranging from 16 plate appearances against Ha-Seong Kim up to 51 against Ozzie Albies. The performances are mixed—led by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris—while the rest of the group hasn’t produced much beyond a bright spot for Albies. who at least has good results.
Taken together, the Braves have 243 career plate appearances between that group of eight hitters and Alcantara. The collective line is a .317 wOBA. which is “eh. ” and a .281 xwOBA. which is “bleh.” The numbers don’t scream certainty. They suggest a game that could swing based on a handful of at-bats.
We’ll see what happens—especially with the lineup adjustments, the return of Kim, and Tromp getting his first start of the year as Atlanta tries to make two feel-good wins in Miami turn into a four-game statement.
Ha-Seong Kim Chadwick Tromp Braves vs Marlins Sandy Alcantara Owen Caissie Dominic Smith Christopher Morel Ronald Acuña Jr. Michael Harris Spencer Strider Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves