Strait of – As the Iran conflict stretches on and prices hover near $100 a barrel, several Latin American oil and resource-rich countries are drawing attention for potential short- and long-term gains—even as everyday costs keep rising across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a choke point again, and the world has felt it in its shopping carts. For weeks, oil prices have hovered around US$ 100 per barrel while the Iran-related conflict continues and it remains unclear whether the United States and Iran will reach an agreement.
Specialists say the disruption is changing how global energy flows are discussed. and that shift is pulling Latin America into the spotlight. With supply pressures tied to the Hormuz bottleneck—through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply and liquefied natural gas (LNG) move—some countries in the region could benefit from higher prices. even if there are no easy “winners.”.
A sustained $100-a-barrel oil price, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy, could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day of additional crude supply in South America by the mid-2030s.
The upside is being weighed against the day-to-day toll. From Argentina to elsewhere, the war’s reach is showing up largely through the cost of living. The increase in fuel prices is feeding broader expenses. and if the conflict lasts longer. the International Monetary Fund warns it could push the world toward a recession.
Miriam Grunstein. co-founder of Mexico’s Brilliant Energy Consulting. puts the opportunity plainly: “Por el alza del precio del petróleo. los países productores aparentemente podrían verse beneficiados.” She adds that countries exporting oil—including Argentina. Brazil. and Guyana—are receiving the benefits of the higher price. Still. she says the region is also hurt by high food prices driven by the war and by the increased cost of nafta.
Benjamín Gedán, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University and a former South America director for the National Security Council, similarly frames the tradeoff: he agrees the exporters benefit, while pointing to the wider strain on households.
Guyana. even with its small size. has emerged as one of the clearest examples of how quickly money can surge when oil arrives—while the question shifts to how it is spent. Rystad Energy data shows that after the crisis in the Middle East began on February 20. Guyana’s weekly oil-related income rose from US$ 370 million before the war to US$ 623 million.
Will Freeman, a Latin America studies researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), says Guyana has “un lado positivo” from the conflict’s onset. But he also emphasizes the scale: Guyana’s economy is smaller compared with the magnitude of the “ingresos extraordinarios” it is receiving.
In Freeman’s view, higher revenues do not automatically translate into broad improvements. “Es importante analizar cómo se distribuyen y gastan las rentas petroleras en Guyana, ya que las evaluaciones sobre el impacto generalizado del crecimiento y la prosperidad del país tras 2020 son diversas.”
Guyana’s economy has indeed climbed since oil production began in 2019, but poverty remains high, and the country faces a central challenge: managing “new” wealth in a way that is inclusive and stable.
Grunstein adds a warning that is as political as it is economic. She says Guyana’s governance is weak. and she argues that real gains will depend on whether the government of President Irfaan Ali manages the income in a way that supports actual development. “Si la renta petrolera va a ir a proyectos que verdaderamente impliquen el desarrollo del país. entonces sí. Guyana gana. pero con su bajísima gobernanza y su bajo Estado de derecho. es dudoso decir que es un país verdaderamente ganador. ” she said.
The oil transformation in Guyana began in 2015, when U.S. company ExxonMobil discovered nearly 11,000 million barrels in deep waters. In 2024, Guyana recorded its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth after expanding 43.6%, which authorities attributed to oil production and exports.
Across the southern part of the region, Argentina is drawing attention not just for oil income but for investment momentum. In Neuquén Province, the Vaca Muerta formation is described as the region’s most dynamic growth project. It has opened 15 new exploration blocks and is the largest commercial shale deposit open to international exploration and production companies outside North America.
Rystad Energy frames the potential interest as part of a broader shift: resource-rich regions are increasingly sought as the conflict exposes the fragility of global supply chains around the Strait of Hormuz.
Jai Singh. head of Oil and Gas Research in the United States for Rystad Energy and one of the report’s authors. said Argentina stands to benefit as an investment destination for oil companies. Singh also said the timing matters: European major oil firms were pulling back toward core oil and gas operations. while U.S. oil companies were looking more abroad for opportunities. “Argentina. en particular. acapara el interés no solo debido a la prolífica formación de shale de Vaca Muerta. sino también por los incentivos introducidos por la administración del presidente (Javier) Milei. ” he said.
Even with those forecasts, the conflict is still pushing prices upward in ways that can hit households hardest. Analysts consulted in April said the pass-through of higher fuel costs into production and wholesale prices could extend over the coming months—an especially painful prospect in a country where inflation has been a long-running struggle.
Mexico sits at the center of a different tension: it is both a producer and a large importer of refined fuel. The article notes that 75% of the LNG Mexico consumes and 50% of its gasoline are imported from the United States—an arrangement made more complicated as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
Grunstein says Mexico could benefit from higher oil prices as a producing country, but other factors blunt the impact. She points to a sharp jump in the Mexican blend—“a niveles sin precedentes en mucho tiempo”—and to the fact that gasoline is imported. Mexico has responded by adopting a price-control policy. and the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum applies subsidies to soften the increases. “Entonces, lo que gana en petróleo lo pierde en la gasolina,” Grunstein said.
Freeman puts politics and credibility into the same frame. He warns that Mexico “ya no es la potencia exportadora de petróleo que supo ser. ” and he argues that prolonged economic suffering would not help Sheinbaum and Morena. which he says have had “una especie de inmunidad política” that other Latin American parties and leaders have not enjoyed.
Venezuela, meanwhile, is described as operating under its own pressure points, even beyond oil prices. More than four months after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. operation in Caracas. the article says the government in interim charge under Delcy Rodríguez is betting on a “new chapter” built around restructuring public debt and the debt of the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
The piece ties that pivot to a broader effort to reset ties: it says Caracas is moving toward the United States, restoring diplomatic relations that were broken in 2019, and seeking the lifting of sanctions that weighed on the country while it opens its energy sector to U.S. investments.
A CFR investigator described it this way: Venezuela is trying to rebuild its oil industry and move out of a “depresión” that has been deep and prolonged. “Cualquier aumento de precio para su principal producto de exportación es, en esencia, positivo,” he said.
Rystad Energy also argues that Venezuela has returned to global supply discussions after the capture of Maduro in January and after a reduction in the availability of medium-heavy sour crude coming from the Middle East. The company’s report. published at the end of April. estimates that at a sustained $100 per barrel. Venezuela could add 910. 000 barrels per day by 2035.
Brazil is described as somewhat shielded by its large oil production, but it is not immune. The article says analysts are focused on the need to blunt the effects of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—particularly because fertilizer supply transits there. feeding Brazil’s agricultural sector. one of its main export engines. Freeman warns that those strains create a risk of social unrest. He points to Brazil’s annual inflation rate of 4.4% while saying Brazilians are unhappy with the economy and lack patience to endure more hardship.
Taken together, the picture in Latin America is a mix of incentives and exposure: higher crude prices can translate into more money, but the conflict’s most immediate effect can still be felt as fuel and food becoming harder to afford.
The world, the piece adds, may end up forced to change in more fundamental ways—strengthening and diversifying the energy supply chain and accelerating the shift toward renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
For the countries watching the oil price tick upward, the task ahead is not just capturing benefits. It is deciding how to manage them, and how to survive the consequences of a conflict whose disruptions may be sticking around.
Iran conflict Strait of Hormuz oil prices US$100 per barrel Latin America Argentina Brazil Guyana Venezuela Mexico PDVSA Rystad Energy IMF Claudia Sheinbaum Javier Milei Irfaan Ali Nicolas Maduro Delcy Rodriguez