A prolonged Florida drought is pushing Everglades wading birds toward failed nesting as freshwater levels drop in Florida Bay, cutting off prey fish and reducing foraging quality.
For days on Florida Bay’s shallow waters, Shauna Sayers has been watching the same question play out: will the birds find enough food close to where they nest?
Sayers. a wading bird research specialist with the National Audubon Society. helps monitor bird populations throughout Florida Bay—a shallow lagoon partly inside Everglades National Park. Her team tracks species including roseate spoonbills. which she described as indicator species: “if they’re doing poorly. the Everglades is also doing poorly.”.
This year’s drought pressure has been harder on the birds that nest later. While spoonbills appeared to show relative success. Sayers said the behavior of other wading birds has been “concerning. ” and that the pattern fits a brutal reality of the Everglades’ food chain: less water can mean fewer small prey fish—and fewer successful nests.
Sayers said changes to freshwater flow in the Everglades are reflected in the plants and animals that depend on abundant sources. The prolonged dry period in the region she monitored resulted in the “loss of small prey fishes.”
“The prey fish are vital to parts of the ecosystem,” Sayers said. “They make up the food base for many higher predators on the food chain, one of those being the wading birds, and that can impact their nesting.”
Her team monitors tricolored herons, little blue herons, snowy egrets and reddish egrets—species that, Sayers said, “nest a little later” than roseate spoonbills. She pointed to timing and presence in the Bay as the warning signs.
“Usually we would start seeing them initiate nesting in late March to April, and mating around that time,” Sayers said. “However, they had a low presence in the Bay. Anecdotally, I feel like it definitely relates to the low water levels. There’s likely multiple factors at play. but the impact to the foraging quality. if there’s low water — that typically means low prey fish abundance. which can deter nesting for birds.”.
“If there’s no accessible food sources nearby, birds won’t nest,” she added. “And if they do, then there’s potentially a high chance that the nest would fail.”
Florida Bay’s geography shapes why these signals matter. The National Park Service describes Florida Bay as a large and shallow lagoon of about 1. 400 square miles. bordered by the Florida peninsula to the north and the Florida Keys to the east and south. About 1,000 square miles of the bay are located within Everglades National Park.
The National Park Service also says the bay is divided into banks that “provide unique habitat for many plants. invertebrates. fishes. birds. mammals. and reptiles. ” with each basin having “its own physical characteristics.” Within that mix are threatened or endangered species like the Florida manatee and species of “special concern. ” including the roseate spoonbill.
South Florida is already under strain from broader climate and water-flow stresses. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has described the region as having the “largest remaining subtropical wilderness” in the country and the “only shallow coral reef formation” in the continental U.S. The agency also places it “on the ‘front lines of climate change. ’” citing scaling water temperatures and stressors like acidification of the ocean. low oxygen in the water and algal blooms that threaten marine ecosystems.
Those marine ecosystems. NOAA says. “provide food and shelter to more than 6. 000 species of marine life and contribute $4 billion annually in tourism.” NOAA also ties the reduced freshwater flow to historical development: drainage canals meant to bolster coastal development and agriculture and aid with flood control have “reduced the flow of freshwater in Florida Bay.” That reduction has been linked to the dying of seagrass. plankton blooms and changes in the populations of fish and invertebrates.
The Everglades Foundation says the Everglades—threatened by nutrient pollution. an interrupted water flow. algae blooms. drought and development—plays a vital role as a source of fresh water for the roughly 9 million people living in the counties that “make up the Greater Everglades ecosystem and rely on its clean water.” The foundation also says the wetlands “recharge the Biscayne Aquifer. ” which provides drinking water for Miami-Dade. Broward and Monroe counties.
Then drought arrives again. In 2026. Florida faced its worst drought in decades. with 99% of the state suffering from some form of it for months on end. Even as recent rains have somewhat improved conditions in certain areas, 98.6% of Florida remains under drought. Everglades National Park wasn’t spared: the Everglades Foundation says water levels in early 2026 were more than half a foot lower than last year. and more than a foot lower than the year prior to that.
The USA TODAY Network-Florida reported that parts of Florida’s Everglades have dried down three times over the past five years—an increase from once every 20 to 30 years reflected in historical record.
For Sayers, the most stark concern has been the tricolored herons. She said they have had a severely diminished presence in Florida Bay.
“Based on talking to people who observed them last year, they were starting with seeing around 200-something nests in April,” Sayers said. “We didn’t even see one nest in April.”
Sayers said the 200 or so nests in 2025 were recorded on a single key within the Bay—Tern Key. Even in early June, she said Tern Key has remained largely empty of nests.
“Interestingly, it hasn’t had any activity, and it’s been a very consistent key every year to have spoonbills and tricolored herons,” Sayers said. “But we just haven’t had any nesting there this year.”
As more rain has fallen on South Florida, Sayers said she has seen a return to expected behaviors for many wading birds. She cautioned that it’s still too early to assume the same outcome as last year.
Though she’s not sure populations will reach the heights they did last year—“birds just do what they want to do”—she said “more and more” nests are appearing. “Which is a good sign.”
On Sandy Key, her team found around 50 nests in May, then 200 nests in early June after struggling to find any at all in April.
“It’s beginning, I think, but there are a lot of keys to monitor, so I’m not sure it’ll be quite the same level as last year,” she said.
Everglades Florida Bay drought wading birds tricolored herons roseate spoonbills nesting freshwater flow prey fish National Audubon Society Everglades National Park NOAA climate change Biscayne Aquifer