Ethereum faces another 25% drop before any bottom

Ethereum could – Ethereum has slid below $2,000 on June 2 and remains under pressure, with traders now pricing a 71% chance of a move down to $1,500. The technical picture—RSI at 34.26, ADX at 21.6 rising toward 25, and key moving averages acting as resistance—keeps the downsi

Ethereum’s slide doesn’t feel like a normal dip. It looks more like a steady hand moving the price lower—again and again—until a level breaks or buyers finally refuse to let it.

On June 2, Ethereum fell below $2,000 and hasn’t looked back. The pressure intensified after a session that began near $2,004, barely cleared $2,018, then flipped quickly. Sellers stepped in just after ETH pushed above the broken $2. 000 mark. and the move ended with an intraday low of $1. 814.90—a clean rejection that left little room for hesitation.

Traders have taken that lack of stability and turned it into expectations. On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, current odds for Ethereum’s next move point to a 71% chance that ETH drops to $1,500 before any comeback. Those odds are up 25% since mid-May.

The broader market has been hammered too—Bitcoin has fallen below $67,000, its worst level since April, and Ethereum’s cousin in the ETF world is also bleeding—but Ethereum’s move is worse in both pace and tone. Ethereum’s ETF story has now logged 15 consecutive trading days of net outflows.

And the bearish buildup isn’t only price-driven. The market has also been reacting to several factors beyond typical macro pressure: key developers at the Ethereum Foundation have “jumped ship,” some vocal, high-profile supporters have sold their bags, and ETF outflows have kept piling up.

Technicals are doing their part to keep the downside case credible. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has been intact since Ethereum’s all-time high of $4. 954 in August 2025 still defines the chart. For now, there’s a critical level around $1,700. If ETH doesn’t find buyers and stage a meaningful bounce at or above that zone today or in the next few sessions. the space between the current price and the $1. 400 support cluster is thin.

That $1,400 cluster matters because it was a major resistance-turned-support region in early 2023. Hitting it would mean roughly a 25% move below current levels based on the minimums from 2025—the exact kind of distance the prediction market appears to be pricing in.

The indicators are not screaming “buy the dip” yet. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 34.26. RSI runs from 0 to 100, and readings below 30 are usually the point where markets are considered sold too hard too fast. Ethereum isn’t there. Being in the mid-30s doesn’t guarantee a bounce—it just suggests sellers have had control for a while. and there’s room for a bigger dip before oversold effects typically start to matter.

Trend strength shows a similar contradiction. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 21.6, technically “weak” because ETH is not dropping as fast as it was previously. But ADX is rising toward 25. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, and readings above 25 confirm an actual trend developing. For traders watching both direction and momentum, ADX creeping upward while the price stays heavy isn’t comforting.

Moving averages add another layer of resistance. On the long timeframe. the 50-day moving average is still above the 200-day moving average—a “golden cross.” But Ethereum is trading well below both averages right now. which turns those levels into ceilings instead of supports. The 50-day EMA sits around $2,194 and the 200-day is near $2,510. At current prices, those averages are levels ETH has to fight uphill to even reach.

The gap between the two EMAs is closing fast. raising the risk of a “death cross”—the inverse of a golden cross and a bearish indicator in technical analysis. Meanwhile, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is firing with a momentum reading of -0.35. The Squeeze fires when volatility compresses—like a spring coiled—and measures which direction the energy releases. But even this signal has a catch: it may suggest prices are compressing before a bounce. yet it doesn’t necessarily mean the direction flips. It can also reflect a standoff where bulls and bears have stagnated the market.

For anyone clinging to a rebound, the case is built around mean reversion. With RSI near 34. a squeeze in play. and ETH down roughly 60% from its all-time high of $4. 954 in August 2025. the argument is that selling may be overdone. The $1,700 zone is the psychological spot bulls are expected to defend.

There’s also the roadmap. The Ethereum Foundation has confirmed a Glamsterdam upgrade for Q3 2026. It targets a major gas limit expansion and 10,000 transactions per second on the layer-1 network. If institutional sentiment stabilizes around that catalyst. buying could return before prices get much worse. and some buyers may treat the current discount as opportunity rather than warning.

The problem is timing. The bounce thesis depends on macro triggers that aren’t imminent. and the technicals aren’t offering a clean reversal signal yet. The 15-day ETF outflow streak is also framed as more than a temporary mood swing—it’s institutional money leaving. tied to a broader rotation out of crypto and into AI equities. where earnings visibility is described as more tangible. On the chart. the selling pattern stays stubborn: ETH has printed lower highs and lower lows consistently. and every bounce attempt since breaking $2. 500 has been capped and reversed. Even the $2,000 level—once support for weeks—broke with conviction yesterday.

So for now, the question isn’t whether Ethereum can bounce at all. It’s whether it can stop the slide before the next major decision levels arrive. With Myriad’s 71% odds pointing to $1,500, the market is effectively daring buyers to prove they can show up before the floor does.

Ethereum ETH price Myriad prediction market Dastan Decrypt ETF outflows RSI ADX moving averages Glamsterdam upgrade crypto market