Europeans no – A new ECFR poll shows a rapid drop in how many Europeans view the United States as an ally, even as support grows for Europe taking on more of its own defense—an electorate-wide tension that comes as U.S. retrenchment plans move from debate to contingency plan
For many Europeans, the idea of the United States as the dependable backstop is slipping away. In a June policy brief tied to a new European Council on Foreign Relations poll. only 11% of respondents now view the U.S. as Europe’s ally—down from 16% just half a year earlier and from 22% in November 2024.
The shift is stark enough to change how citizens think about NATO’s future. The poll finds that 25% of respondents see the United States as either a rival or an adversary, while about half still describe it as a “necessary partner.”
Those numbers land as European officials are already testing what NATO could look like if Washington reduces its role. Trump has repeatedly threatened to do so. and European leaders have been weighing informal fallback plans—ways to place more of NATO’s day-to-day burden on European governments as uncertainty about Washington’s commitment hardens.
The ECFR poll suggests voters are at least partially willing to follow that direction. It finds broad support across Europe for taking on more of the continent’s own defense burden. including higher defense spending and greater European procurement. But that support weakens when people are asked to weigh those goals against other public spending priorities—showing that the debate isn’t only about security; it’s also about what governments can afford.
Still, the trust question sits at the center of the anxiety. The poll includes 19,481 respondents across 15 European countries and was conducted in May. ECFR reports majorities in each country surveyed who believe the U.S. would not defend them if they were attacked. Most respondents in nearly every surveyed country—Bulgaria being the exception—also said they trust other European countries to help if they were attacked.
That division is mirrored in attitudes toward NATO itself. Europeans are split on replacing the alliance with a Europe-only defense organization: 29% favor replacing NATO with a European-only defense organization, while 28% oppose it.
Europe’s defense debate is not happening in a vacuum. It runs parallel to uncertainty about how far public support will go in Ukraine and how much Europe is willing to reset its energy relationships.
On Ukraine. ECFR says views remain broadly positive. with majorities in most surveyed countries describing Ukraine as either an ally or a necessary partner. But a majority oppose sending troops to Ukraine after it reaches a peace deal with Russia. and there is no broad public consensus for bringing Ukraine into the EU under current conditions.
Energy is where voters appear more decisive. Despite pressure tied to higher energy costs, ECFR reports that support for resuming Russian oil and gas purchases remains limited. Majorities in nearly every surveyed country favor putting renewables and other clean-energy sectors first.
Put together. the poll sketches a narrow path for European leaders: voters want Europe to do more for its defense while still keeping room for the U.S. relationship. they want continued support for Ukraine without backing commitments that feel open-ended. and they want stronger energy security without reopening dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
European leaders are already trying to balance those competing demands. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year. many European leaders described Trump’s presidency as a wake-up call for Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the rules-based order “no longer exists” and warned. “Our freedom is not guaranteed.” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has also described NATO as “irreplaceable. ” while arguing that Europe must take more responsibility for its defense—saying. “NATO must become more European in order to remain trans-Atlantic.”.
The ECFR poll suggests the electorate is giving leaders permission to move toward a more Europe-centered posture. The question now is whether that permission holds when people feel the tradeoffs most directly—through higher budgets. competing domestic priorities. and the political cost of contingency plans for a role the U.S. may not play the same way in the future.
ECFR poll Europe ally perception NATO United States defense commitment European defense spending European procurement Ukraine public support Russian oil and gas renewables