The worry that Democrats could get shut out of California’s governor election is fading fast. Analysts now say a “Democrat lockout” is far less likely than it looked just a little while ago.
The shift has a clear starting point: former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropping out after a Chronicle report in which a former staffer alleged he had sexually assaulted her. That exit, the party hoped, would reshape the race in a way that keeps Democrats competitive in the state’s Top Two setup.
Sacramento data expert Paul Mitchell, who built an online model that simulates thousands of election scenarios, says the math is working against a two-Republican outcome. Misryoum newsroom reporting notes that Mitchell’s program “really believes that the odds of two Republicans splitting the vote is more remote, almost nonexistent.” And in the model, Swalwell supporters don’t vanish—they move. Mitchell forecasts their support migrating to Tom Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter, with the possibility that both candidates could become top contenders. That, in turn, would raise the chance of a Top Two general election with no Republican on the ballot—described as a “quite a twist,” in an email.
But not everyone is ready to bet the farm on the twist. Misryoum analysis indicates other analysts agree the lockout is unlikely now—still not impossible, though. Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, said he’s been thinking two Republicans is possible, but not probable. He continued to argue that it’s not probable that there would be two Republicans on the ballot in November.
Then there’s the polling snapshot released Tuesday, which has become the current talking point for every conversation about momentum. Misryoum newsroom reported that the poll showed Swalwell leading with 18% support, followed by Fox News commentator Steve Hilton with 17%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 14%, Steyer with 14%, and Porter with 10%. The other top Democratic candidates scored at 5% or lower. The survey was conducted before Swalwell exited the race and resigned from Congress.
Since PPIC’s February survey, Swalwell’s share jumped from 11% to 18%—the biggest rise among any candidate—while Porter’s support fell the most, dropping from 21% to 10%. Baldassare also flagged that Swalwell’s name will remain on the ballot, and it’s probable he’ll still get votes. That matters in California, where name recognition can act like gravity. In fact, Baldassare pointed to a previous example: in 2014, former San Francisco Democratic state Sen. Leland Yee received 380,361 votes out of 4 million cast just two months after being indicted in a federal corruption investigation, finishing third in the primary.
Baldassare also emphasized something else that sounds small until you realize how campaigns operate—how people describe themselves. He noted that 69% of Swalwell’s supporters said they’re liberal in the new PPIC poll, “meaning that they’re going to be looking for a liberal, and that’s a sizable number of people who will make it possible for at least one Democrat to get into the top two.” Misryoum newsroom reporting also points out that California has roughly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans.
Outside the numbers, endorsements are starting to show where some of that migration might land. Misryoum newsroom reported that Steyer received the endorsement Monday from the board of the 310,000-member California Teachers Association, which had previously backed Swalwell. CTA President David Goldberg praised Steyer for walking the picket line with teachers and for promising to reform Proposition 13—though he also acknowledged that change would face an uphill battle. Around the same time, analysts said President Donald Trump’s endorsement this month of Hilton “probably consolidates at least a lot of the MAGA support behind Hilton,” lowering the chance of two Republicans advancing.
Still, even the cautious voices admit the race is fluid. Ruth Bernstein, the senior principal with EMC Research—Swalwell’s longtime pollster—said it’s possible that if lower-polling Democrats try to revive their campaigns after Swalwell’s exit, support could spread between more candidates rather than consolidating around one or two Democratic options. That scenario, Bernstein argued, could again open the door to two Republicans.
So yeah, the likelihood of a Democratic lockout has decreased. But “not impossible,” Bernstein said—an ending that feels a little incomplete, like the story isn’t done yet. And somewhere in California, you can almost imagine the moment: a press room door clicking shut, someone’s phone buzzing with the latest numbers, and everyone pretending they’re not suddenly paying close attention to the same race again.
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