The 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson begins Thursday, May 21 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, with Scottie Scheffler the defending-champion favorite at +160 and Jordan Spieth at +1600. A golf model that says it has nailed 17 majors is calling for a major upset:
Two majors are already finished, and now the PGA Tour moves to McKinney, Texas—where the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson tees off Thursday, May 21. Play starts at 8 a.m. ET at TPC Craig Ranch, and the leaderboard won’t be shaped by just one star group.
Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth—both Dallas-area natives—are in the field. They’re also priced among the top favorites in the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds. Scheffler, the defending champion, is favored at +160. Spieth sits third at +1600. Si Woo Kim follows at +1500, while Brooks Koepka is next on the board at +2200.
After that, the list opens up. No golfer below has odds shorter than +3500, which means there’s room for the week’s kind of story: the shot that suddenly turns into a run, the swing that holds when the rest of the field starts pressing.
The model’s biggest call is where the tension lands. It’s fading Spieth at +1600, projecting that he finishes outside the top 5 despite playing a course he’s familiar with. The reasoning it points to is specific: Spieth has finished inside the top 20 in both majors this year. But it also notes he’s still searching for his first top-10 since the 2025 Memorial Tournament and his first win since 2022—something the odds don’t care about. until Sunday does.
Scheffler remains near the center of the market at +160, while others with names on most fans’ lips—Si Woo Kim at +1500 and Brooks Koepka at +2200—are positioned to push the favorites if they convert their chances.
Yet the surprise the model wants readers to focus on isn’t another “safe” pick. It’s Pierceson Coody at +4000. The 27-year-old Texan is pegged as a top-5 contender. The case it lays out is built on this season’s profile: Coody has seven top-25 finishes on the PGA Tour this season. including a pair of top-10s. It also emphasizes that he’s ranking 26th in strokes gained off the tee and 14th on tour in average driving distance.
The same model says a key part of Coody’s fit is how he can “shrink the course”—turning distance and ball-striking into shorter looks when others are forced to play longer, riskier shots.
That doesn’t stop with Coody. The model says it’s also targeting additional longshots. including one that is going off around 70-1 and making a stunning run for the title. It also directs bettors to its projected leaderboard for tournament-long wagers. one-and-done contests. and PGA DFS lineups—after simulating the tournament 10. 000 times.
There’s one more detail that has become part of how people read these predictions: the model says it has nailed 17 majors, including three in 2025. It says that total includes the 2026 Masters—described as its fifth Masters in a row—and also last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
For anyone scanning the odds right now, here is the full list of 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds (odds via FanDuel and subject to change):
Scottie Scheffler +160
Si Woo Kim +1500
Jordan Spieth +1600
Brooks Koepka +2200
Ryo Hisatsune +3500
Michael Thorbjornsen +3500
Taylor Pendrith +4000
Davis Thompson +4000
Pierceson Coody +4000
Keith Mitchell +4500
Austin Eckroat +4500
Rasmus Højgaard +5000
Wyndham Clark +5000
Tom Kim +5500
Eric Cole +5500
Michael Brennan +6000
Sungjae Im +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500
Blades Brown +6500
Mac Meissner +6500
Max Greyserman +7000
Stephan Jaeger +7000
Jordan Smith +7000
Richard Hoey +7000
Matti Schmid +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Adrien Dumont de Chassart +8000
Max McGreevy +8000
Johnny Keefer +10000
Taylor Moore +10000
Zecheng Dou +10000
John Parry +10000
William Mouw +10000
Thorbjørn Olesen +10000
Patrick Rodgers +10000
Chris Kirk +10000
Kevin Yu +10000
Tony Finau +10000
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +10000
Karl Vilips +10000
Haotong Li +10000
Kevin Roy +10000
Doug Ghim +10000.
2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds TPC Craig Ranch Scottie Scheffler +160 Jordan Spieth +1600 Pierceson Coody +4000 PGA Tour May 21 2026
So Scheffler is +160 like that’s just free money?? I don’t even golf and I could see that.
“Two majors already finished” like ok but does that mean the CJ Cup is basically part of the majors? I’m confused lol. Also Spieth +1600 feels like they’re just guessing.
They keep saying Spieth is a Dallas-area native but he’s from… like I thought he was in California? Maybe I’m mixing him up with someone else. If the model says he misses top 5 I guess that’s because everyone wants an upset, not because of his actual swing.
Brooks Koepka odds at +2200 sound too high, he always shows up when it’s hot. And “15 majors nailed” or whatever the model said… models are always wrong until they aren’t. I’ll just watch and be mad when my pick doesn’t work.