Aurora possible – A coronal mass ejection headed toward Earth late on June 26 may spark a G1-to-G2 geomagnetic storm, raising the odds of northern lights across much of the U.S. northern tier from Monday, June 29, into Tuesday, June 30.
The sky could turn into a living postcard on Monday night—if you’re close enough to the Canadian border to catch the northern horizon.
Northern lights may be visible overnight on Monday, June 29, into Tuesday, June 30, from states along the U.S.-Canadian border. The forecast is tied to a coronal mass ejection—described as a cloud of charged particles—that left the sun late on June 26 in Earth’s direction. NASA models forecast its arrival, and the impact could reach up to a G2-class geomagnetic storm.
That kind of storm isn’t the biggest category for aurora. A G1 or G2-rated geomagnetic storm is not considered a major aurora outbreak forecast. Still. it can be enough to bring visible aurora to the far northern tier of the United States—most likely across parts of Montana. North Dakota. Minnesota. and northern Wisconsin.
Even with the best odds, timing and conditions will matter. After last week’s solstice, long daylight hours are stretching the rhythm of the night sky. And with the full Strawberry Moon rising on Monday. June 29. in the south. aurora may be harder to see for anyone who finds themselves under brighter light.
The most promising states sit largely in the northern half of the country. The nine states with the best chance include the northern parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine.
Aurora still may be glimpsed beyond that core band. It’s also possible that aurora could be visible from Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
What happens next depends on how the charged particles interact once they arrive. The weekend-to-midweek window is shaped by KP conditions—KP 4 or KP 5 can sometimes bring visible northern lights to the far northern tier, especially near the Canadian border.
Space weather forecasts also differ in detail as the days come and go. SpaceWeather.com says this coronal mass ejection could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm when it reaches Earth. A forecast by space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes the outlook this way: “Enhanced conditions are expected to return early to mid on 30 Jun due to the CME that left the Sun late on 26 Jun.”.
The UK Met Office forecast puts the emphasis on increased activity. “CME arrival on day 3 is expected to increase activity to Active to G1 Minor Storms with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms. ” its Space Weather forecast states. “These most likely with any following magnetic cloud, with the risk continuing into day 4 (01 Jul).”.
Forecasts can shift quickly—space weather doesn’t wait for our plans—so people looking for aurora are being urged to check updates in real time. NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast is one option. Downloading apps such as Aurora Now. My Aurora Forecast. or Glendale Aurora can provide up-to-the-minute alerts and live solar wind data.
Behind the scenes, one factor is especially important: the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz component. Bz is included in some of those apps and on SpaceWeatherLive.com. It affects how easily solar energy enters Earth’s magnetosphere. When Bz points north, Earth’s field resists it. When Bz swings south, the two fields connect and allow plasma to stream in. A sustained southward Bz of −5 nT or stronger usually signals an imminent display of aurora.
If you do step outside, the small practical choices can make a difference. Watch from the north, avoid bright lights, and consider using long-exposure settings on a phone or camera. Cameras often detect faint aurora before the human eye can clearly see color.
The science itself is straightforward: the northern lights are caused by the solar wind—a constant stream of charged particles flowing from the sun—that interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While most particles are deflected, some spiral along magnetic field lines toward the poles. There, they collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms high in the atmosphere. The collisions excite the gases, and they release energy as shimmering light.
For Monday night into Tuesday morning, the question is simple: will the sky hold clear—and will the aurora show up where people can see it? In the right locations, during the right window, it might be worth looking north.
northern lights forecast aurora geomagnetic storm G2 coronal mass ejection Strawberry Moon June 29 NOAA 30-minute aurora forecast Bz component SpaceWeatherLive Aurora Now app
So like… will this shut down GPS or is it just pretty lights? Also why is it always June doing this.
I live in Ohio and I’m sorry but I don’t care about northern lights unless it’s guaranteed. They always say “possible” like that doesn’t mean anything lol. Strawberry Moon is gonna make it impossible anyway right?
Isn’t Aurora basically like the sun messing with power grids? My cousin said it causes outages when it’s a G2 thing. But this article says it’s not a “major outbreak” so I’m confused. Like if it’s not major why are they forecasting it so hard?
Monday night?? That’s literally the day I’m stuck working late. Also “close enough to the Canadian border” like ok so not my area in Idaho? I’m reading this and it says most likely Montana and North Dakota and Minnesota and Wisconsin, which is like… a whole lot of places. Guess I’ll just look anyway even though it’ll probably be cloudy.