The ATP French Open fourth round on May 31 pits Rafael Jodar against Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Zverev against Jesper de Jong, with quarterfinal spots on the line. Jodar is riding momentum after surviving tight matches, Carreno-Busta brings experience a
Paris turns into a pressure cooker in the fourth round, and on May 31 the bracket delivers two matches that could swing a whole tournament rhythm in a single afternoon.
First up, Rafael Jodar and Pablo Carreno-Busta meet in the all-Spanish clash at 12:30 CEST in the ATP French Open 1/8-finals. It will be their first meeting.
Jodar enters in the middle of a surge, with four wins in his last five matches. His week began with a straight-sets demolition of Kovacevic in the opening round. He faced the most danger when it mattered—offering and saving only one breakpoint. The second round was rougher. He had to grind past Duckworth in four sets. Then came the kind of match that tests belief: in the third round against Michelsen, Jodar trailed 1-2. He lifted his level from there. and the serving came through in the fourth and fifth sets. which was the main reason he finished the comeback in five sets.
Carreno-Busta isn’t arriving as a passenger, either. He also has four wins in his last five matches. In Paris, he began by upsetting Lehecka in straight sets, serving well and not offering any breakpoints. In the second round, Kokkinakis retired at the beginning of the third set against Carreno-Busta. The third round brought another win under pressure: he upset Tirante in four tight sets. Last season in Paris, he lost to Tiafoe in the second round in straight sets.
For bettors, the matchup already comes with a storyline. Carreno-Busta is listed as the heavy underdog by the bookies. but the pitch here is that this isn’t a mismatch as one-sided as the price suggests. Jodar struggled against Duckworth and Michelsen. Carreno-Busta had a tough draw and still came out on top. The expectation is that the Spaniards keep it close—and that closeness is where the value sits.
The best bet to make is Carreno-Busta covering the games handicap. The value bet offered is Pablo Carreno-Busta +6.5 games handicap at 1.80 @bet365.
A few hours later, at 15:30 CEST, Jesper de Jong steps onto Court knowing he’s been through a tourniquet match already—and Alexander Zverev is waiting in the other corner. Their head-to-head stands at 0-2.
De Jong comes in with four wins in his last five matches. His run in Paris started with a four-set win over Wawrinka in the opening match. In the second round, he demolished Cina in straight sets. The swing came early in that kind of rhythm: he trailed 1-3 in the opening set, then turned it around. But the third round is where his confidence was earned the hard way. After playing for almost five hours, de Jong upset Karen Khachanov in five tight sets.
Zverev’s form looks equally sharp, with four wins in his last five matches as well. His first two rounds in Paris were cleaner: straight-sets wins over Bonzi and Machac. In the third round, he outlasted Halys in four sets. He had chances to close it out in straight sets but served poorly in two games. Even with that wobble, Zverev has momentum and pedigree: he was the finalist here in 2024. Last season, the German lost to Djokovic in the quarterfinals in four sets.
The market leans hard toward Zverev. The bookies price him as the clear favourite, and the expectation matches that: de Jong’s five-set battle against Khachanov was draining, while Zverev is expected to impose himself—especially on his serve and backhand side.
The bet here is again about covering the most likely script. The value bet is Alexander Zverev -7.5 games handicap at 1.67 @bet365.
ATP French Open May 31 2026 Rafael Jodar Pablo Carreno-Busta Alexander Zverev Jesper de Jong best bets games handicap