Cowboys 2026 – Emmitt Smith points to a drama-free Cowboys offseason and a defense reshaped through free agency, the April draft and trades. Still, his 2026 record prediction — 9-8 — comes with a schedule loaded against Dallas, including multiple road tests and matchups agai
Dallas’s offseason has been unusually quiet. Emmitt Smith calls that a real kind of progress for a team that’s spent years living under the weight of expectations — and for “America’s Team,” that pressure has often arrived with noise.
Last season, Dallas finished 7-9-1 and placed second in the NFC East for what turned into another uneven year. Now the storyline is simpler: a roster that looks aimed at fixing its most obvious weakness, while the season itself — especially the toughest stretches — promises to be anything but calm.
Brian Schottenheimer enters his second year as head coach after a first season that ended in that 7-9-1 record. During the offseason, Dallas has kept the surface level steady, focused on keeping key pieces intact on offense, while attacking defensive problems through the draft and acquisitions.
The foundation on offense starts with Dak Prescott returning healthy. The team’s belief is that the scoring side will be ready — and that the defense needs to carry its share.
Dallas has re-signed starting running back Javonte Williams. extended stud kicker Brandon Aubrey. and signed star wide receiver George Pickens to his franchise tag for one year. Tight end Jake Ferguson is part of an offense Smith points to as having a reliable set of weapons. anchored by an elite receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Up front, the offensive line remains described as previously dominant, with three former first-rounders set to start the 2026 season.
On defense. the changes are more pointed — the kind you make when last season’s issues can’t be explained away. In April’s NFL draft, Dallas selected safety Caleb Downs No. 11 overall and defensive end Malachi Lawrence No. 23 overall, using five of its seven selections on defensive players. Dallas also traded for Rashan Gary and Dee Winters. aiming for balance after improvements that followed the team trading for Quinnen Williams at the deadline.
The bigger question in 2026 isn’t whether Dallas can score. It’s whether the defense can hold its end of games long enough to make the postseason.
Smith’s prediction puts that tension into numbers: Dallas is set for a 9-8 record.
Dallas’ schedule does not make the task any easier. Sharp Football Analysis ranks Dallas’ strength of schedule as the fourth-hardest league-wide. Finishing second in the NFC East also shapes the matchups: Dallas will face the Ravens (including the Brazil game in Week 3). the Packers. and the Buccaneers as three of the division’s steeper tests.
There are also four challenging road games outside the division against the Rams, Seahawks, Packers and Texans. Dallas is also set to host the reigning AFC South champion Jaguars at some point during the season.
The way the slate is arranged leaves little margin for error — but Smith’s view is that everything still lines up for a division push if the pieces click. After all. Dallas would have a clear path to taking the NFC East title if its defensive improvements match the expectations that already ride on Prescott. Lamb and Pickens.
As the season stretches from the opener through the final weeks. the facts line up into the same theme: the Cowboys’ offseason quietness and roster adjustments are designed for a bigger turnaround. but the schedule keeps forcing them into high-stakes games early. on the road. and against top-tier opponents.
Game-by-game picks
Week 1: at New York Giants (“Sunday Night Football”): LOSS
Week 2: vs. Washington Commanders: WIN
Week 3: vs. Baltimore Ravens (Brazil game): WIN
Week 4: at Houston Texans: LOSS
Week 5: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (“Thursday Night Football”): WIN
Week 6: at Green Bay Packers (“Sunday Night Football”): LOSS
Week 7: at Philadelphia Eagles (“Monday Night Football”): LOSS
Week 8: vs. Arizona Cardinals: WIN
Week 9: at Indianapolis Colts: WIN
Week 10: vs. San Francisco 49ers: LOSS
Week 11: vs. Tennessee Titans: WIN
Week 12: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Thanksgiving): WIN
Week 13: at Seattle Seahawks (“Monday Night Football”): LOSS
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Los Angeles Rams: LOSS
Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (“Sunday Night Football”): LOSS
Week 17: vs. New York Giants: WIN
Week 18: at Washington Commanders: WIN.
Toughest game: Week 4 at Houston
Smith points to Week 4 at Houston as the most difficult test. The Cowboys are on the road three of the first four weeks, and they close out the first month of the season on the road against the league’s No. 1-ranked defense.
Dallas will make the trip to Houston the week after returning from its international game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, against a good Ravens team. He also emphasizes that, despite what some Cowboys fans may think, the Texans have been the better team from Texas over the last two seasons.
Easiest game: Week 11 vs. Titans
The softer spot, in Smith’s view, comes in Week 11 against the Titans. It falls in the middle of the Cowboys’ three-game home stand and could serve as a lookahead with the Eagles on deck four days later on Thanksgiving. Even with that context. he doesn’t expect Tennessee to pose much resistance. arguing Dallas’ explosive offense will be a challenge for a young Titans unit to keep pace.
Must-watch matchup: Week 15 at Rams
For the game that could reshape the tone of the season, Smith lands on Week 15 at the Rams. He expects plenty of fireworks and frames it as a showdown between two of the league’s top offenses.
He also flags an alternative, acknowledging an argument could be made for Week 6 against Micah Parsons and the Packers. But his “must-see” choice rests on Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott meeting with their wide receivers propping up both offenses.
Cowboys schedule 2026
Week 1: (Sept. 13) New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC (“Sunday Night Football”) Week 2: (Sept. 20) Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox Week 3: (Sept. 27) Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS (Rio de Janeiro game) Week 4: (Oct. 4) Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Week 5: (Oct. 8) Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video (“Thursday
Night Football”) Week 6: (Oct. 18) Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m., NBC (“Sunday Night Football”) Week 7: (Oct. 26) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m., ESPN (“Monday Night Football”) Week 8: (Nov. 1) Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Week 9: (Nov. 8) Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Week 10: (Nov. 15) Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox Week 11:
(Nov. 22) Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Week 12: (Nov. 26) Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox (Thanksgiving) Week 13: (Dec. 7) Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN (“Monday Night Football”) Week 14: BYE Week 15: (Dec. 20) Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS Week 16: (Dec. 27) Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC (“Sunday Night Football”) Week
17: (Jan. 3) Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET, Fox Week 18: (Jan. 10) Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys, TBD.
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Cowboys home opponents 2026
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Cowboys away opponents 2026
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl 61 odds
Dallas Cowboys 2026 schedule Emmitt Smith Brian Schottenheimer Dak Prescott CeeDee Lamb George Pickens defense overhaul Caleb Downs Malachi Lawrence Rashan Gary Dee Winters strength of schedule game predictions NFL
9-8? sounds made up lol.
Emmitt saying it’s drama-free is funny because Dallas fans will literally argue about anything. If the schedule is brutal then how is the offseason “quiet,” like aren’t they still stressed about who they didn’t sign?
Wait so they’re quiet now but the defense is reshaped… through free agency and trades right? I swear every time I hear “reshaped defense” it just means they gave up on stopping the run and now they’re gonna get embarrassed on the road. Also 9-8 feels optimistic like they’re already counting wins.
This whole thing feels like sports talk to cover up that they’re not good. 7-9-1 last year and now “America’s Team” is supposedly progressing, but the schedule loaded against them basically cancels that. I don’t even know why Emmitt gets to predict records when he’s not playing, but whatever. If they go 9-8 I bet it’s because of an easy stretch, not this “calm offseason” narrative.