Young men chase thrills in prediction markets—then lose

young men – For Thomas Christian Owens, a first-time Kalshi account started as a “birthday gift” and quickly turned into losses, while young traders like Steven Zhang say the thrill is knowing every bet could go wrong. A new wave of interest in prediction markets—along wi

When Thomas Christian Owens opened his Kalshi account for the first time this year, he told himself it was simple: a little birthday-gift money, some fun, and a chance—if he got lucky—to add something extra to support himself and family.

He made the account in January and put in $500. Three months later, he started betting. “It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,” the 29-year-old manufacturing engineer said in an interview with CBS News.

He wasn’t chasing a life-changing score. But over the next month, the math turned on him. Just over a month after he started trading, the Oklahoma City resident found himself in the red. He said he ended up keeping his bets small—under $100—after his account balance fell to $1. 700. below the $2. 500 he had deposited.

“I had almost $4,600 at one point but squandered that, for sure,” Owens wrote in a text message.

Owens’ story is playing out in a wider pattern of young men drawn to prediction markets for thrills. fast money. and even a form of financial reassurance. In an April survey from Navigator Research, close to 40% of young men between 18 and 34 use prediction markets. On Kalshi. roughly 3 million of the platform’s 4 million active users are male. and six in 10 of the platform’s total users are between 18 and 34.

For some, the appeal is immediate—less about economics than about the feeling of being in the game. Steven Zhang. a 20-year-old student at the University of California. Los Angeles. said he first heard about Polymarket in 2024 while studying in a library with a friend. He’d seen a social media ad inviting people to bet on what President Trump would say during a presidential debate. “I remember we put $20 into Polymarket. in a crypto wallet. and then we made some bets. and we lost it all. ” Zhang said.

He now trades on Kalshi. betting on highly uncertain outcomes such as what TV announcers will say during NBA games and the U.S.-Iran conflict. He keeps his risk deliberately small. saying he has about $150 in his account and that the money he uses is “the amount of money that I’m comfortable losing.”.

For Zhang, the thrill is the uncertainty itself. “Knowing that you could be right or wrong, I think, is part of the game,” he said.

Kalshi users like Owens and Zhang describe a platform built for wagers that can swing quickly. Prediction markets let users bet on “yes” and “no” questions called event contracts, priced between $0 and $1. If a wager succeeds, users get a $1 payout per contract. If the prediction is wrong, they lose money.

Some of Owens’ early wins were sharp enough to keep the door open. One early basketball “combo” bet bundled multiple event contracts into a single trade and netted him $456 from a $50 wager—an 800% return. Another combo bet saw him correctly predict three pro basketball games, turning $196 into nearly $1,700.

He mostly traded on sports-related events, including bets on his hometown NBA team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those wins are part of why young men keep showing up even when the odds aren’t friendly. Experts say the pattern isn’t surprising. Michael Liersch. a behavioral finance expert and chief planning officer at investment adviser Edelman Financial Engines. told CBS News that men tend to express more confidence than women in financial decisions and risk-taking. which he linked to “a strong belief about being right.”.

David Bieri. an associate professor at Virginia Tech. added that men may be less affected by an “endowment effect”—the tendency for people to value what they have so strongly that they don’t want to lose it. Bieri told CBS News that men “have maybe less of what economists call an endowment effect. ” which means they may not care if they lose money “as readily” as women might.

When men strike it lucky, they don’t just get a balance sheet change. Bieri said there’s social status. too—bragging rights in “high-prestige markets.” “There is social status from being seen as successful in these high-prestige markets. ” he told CBS News. adding. “Which young man does not want to be the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’?”.

But the broader reality can be harsher than the pitch that draws people in. Even as prediction markets promise the possibility of quick certainty—priced down to cents—the outcomes don’t average out well for most users.

Jordan Bender. managing director of gaming equity research at financial firm Citizens. said it shouldn’t be expected that betting will reliably make people winners. Research from Citizens found that the median return on investment for a prediction market user was -8%. meaning users would lose $8 for every $100 spent.

“People shouldn’t expect to walk into betting of any type and walk away a winner,” Bender said.

The losses show up fast in Owens’ own experience. And his reason for joining wasn’t greed—it was pressure at home. When he opened his Kalshi account. he said he hoped any winnings would supplement his income and help him support family members. “I’m not supporting anybody as a dependent right now. but I have a few family members that are really down on their finances at the moment. so trying to help them out. too. ” he said.

That connection to financial stress is echoed in survey data. Northwestern Mutual found that 75% of men feel financially behind and think speculative investments. including prediction markets. can help them catch up—compared to 69% of women. John Roberts. chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual. told CBS News in an email that headlines about rising prices and possible Social Security cuts can add to the pressure.

For many, the hope is that risk becomes a shortcut.

For most, it doesn’t.

Ownership of the biggest gains also looks lopsided. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that more than 67% of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts.

At the same time. prediction markets have been under scrutiny for alleged insider trading. with men at the center of multiple high-profile cases. That includes a Google employee accused of making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on confidential company information. A U.S. special forces soldier was arrested after allegedly betting on the removal from office of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before news of the U.S. raid was made public. Former Rep. George Santos of New York is also under scrutiny for alleged insider trading on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s male-heavy customer base is another part of the story people are trying to understand. CBS News reached out to Kalshi with questions about its male customer base but did not receive a response prior to publication.

Polymarket, too, addressed questions differently. A Polymarket spokesperson didn’t address a series of questions posed by CBS News for this story and instead responded with a statement saying: “Polymarket is open to eligible adults 18 and older. and we continue to build on our mission to share human-informed knowledge with the world through open. capital-backed markets.”.

Owens says he’s learned the lesson the hard way: the game can look winnable early, and then it drains you quickly. He started with $500, hit moments of excitement—$456 from a $50 wager, $1,700 from $196—and then watched his balance slide to $1,700, below what he put in.

Now he keeps his bets under $100.

Zhang, meanwhile, keeps his entry point small, saying he’s in only for what he can afford to lose. Both men are chasing the same thing—certainty for a moment, a thrill in the outcome, bragging rights if they’re right.

For most people stepping into prediction markets, the momentum doesn’t last. The platform might offer fast rounds, but the market’s built-in math keeps a steep cost on the table—one most users don’t notice until they’re already in the red.

Edited by Cara Tabachnick and Alain Sherter.

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