WMO warns – The U.N. weather agency says there is an 80% chance El Niño begins this summer, with probabilities near or above 90% for it to last through at least November—raising fears of drought, heavy rainfall, marine heat waves, and heat risks that could ripple across m
By early summer, the oceans are sending a warning—and now the United Nations is urging the world to treat it like urgency rather than forecastable trivia.
On June 2, the World Meteorological Organization issued a fresh warning about the looming El Niño climate pattern. The WMO said there is an 80% likelihood that an El Niño event will begin this summer, a shift that could reshape global temperature and rainfall for months.
El Niño forms when sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean run above average. a natural climate swing that affects weather worldwide. The WMO is pointing to the practical stakes: oceans are holding excess heat. and while El Niño can limit hurricanes. scientists warn storms can still form.
The global concern is not just that El Niño will bring extremes. but that it will stack those extremes on top of long-term climate warming. The WMO said the prospect of a strong El Niño raises fears of additional heat. including marine heat waves. and that the impacts could continue as a ripple effect for months.
The forecast comes with near-term momentum. The WMO said El Niño conditions are developing and set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns.
The world’s top climate messenger did not soften the message. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He added. “Impacts will hit even harder. travel even farther. and cross borders with devastating speed.”.
The WMO’s forecast extends beyond summer. Probabilities for El Niño to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. While uncertainty remains around El Niño’s peak strength and timing, the WMO said most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate—and possibly strong.
That strength matters because El Niño can tilt rainfall patterns and drought risk toward specific regions. The WMO said El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America. the southern United States. the Horn of Africa. and central Asia—and drought over Australia. Indonesia. and parts of southern Asia.
WMO officials urged preparation because the combination of drought, heavy rainfall, and heat is the danger. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean. ” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. She pointed to the recent baseline: “The most recent El Niño. in 2023-24. was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”.
The question many readers will have—how confident scientists really are—collides with the reality that the process is already underway. Daniel Swain. a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. said the formation of the pattern is already “clearly well underway.” In a recent update on his WeatherWest website. Swain wrote that the atmosphere and oceans are cooperating and appear consistent with model forecasts for “a significant El Niño to develop by mid-summer.”.
The U.S. government’s outlook aligns with that timing. NOAA’s most recent forecast predicted El Niño would likely form in June or July, and its next update is expected on June 11.
At the same time, the storm story is more complicated than a single headline about fewer hurricanes. The WMO said seasonal forecast outlooks link El Niño formation to a busier-than-normal hurricane season in the Pacific and possibly a slightly below-normal season in the Atlantic basin.
That mix—heat across oceans. shifting rainfall across continents. and changing storm patterns across basins—arrives against a fast-moving scientific landscape. Even the language carries caution: scientists say this could be a very strong El Niño. potentially a “Super” El Niño. though it is not an official term used by the WMO or NOAA.
Some of the most telling evidence is happening right along the equator. The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the El Niño region along the equator west of South America have risen sharply. With near-record sea surface temperatures pushing westward in the El Niño region. the WMO described it as a telltale sign of the beginning of an El Niño.
Together, the facts are building a clear picture: a pattern the public associates with weather swings is moving from forecast to reality, carrying the risk that heat extremes—both on land and in the ocean—could intensify during a season when the global climate is already stressed.
El Niño WMO climate warming drought heavy rainfall heat waves marine heat waves NOAA tropical Pacific ENSO