Major primary battles to watch, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, and a special election in South Carolina as voters head to the polls in six states.
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- Voters in six states, including Wisconsin and Minnesota head to the polls for key primary battles.
- In Wisconsin, Democratic socialist Francesca Hong faces controversy in the governor’s primary, while a Trump-endorsed candidate seeks a congressional seat.
- Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary features a tight race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig.
- Former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, backed by Donald Trump, is the frontrunner in Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
Major battles in Wisconsin and Minnesota highlight a six-state primary field on Tuesday, Aug. 11. And much like in Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary, a progressive upstart candidate is making headlines in the Upper Midwest.
Outspoken state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, leads polls in a chaotic Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor despite being publicly ridiculed for her questionable past social media comments. Outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat who endorsed her rival Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, is publicly questioning if Hong could win the general election.
And in Minnesota, President Donald Trump is putting his winning endorsement record at stake by backing controversy-prone former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for governor in the Republican primary. The winner will face Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a likely lock in the Democratic primary, to replace embattled Gov. Tim Walz, who is not seeking a fourth term amid a federal investigation into widespread welfare fraud in the state.
“It seems like what happens here in the region will definitely be must-watch,” said Andy Aoki, a political science professor at Augsburg University in Minneapolis.
And in South Carolina, U.S. Senator Darline Graham, two congressmen and a former governor are among the 10 Republicans competing in a special primary election to replace her brother, the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the Palmetto State’s general election ballot in November.
Even though Trump endorsed Graham, who was sworn in last month and became the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate, to complete the remaining months of her brother’s current term, she’s not a lock to win the special contest. The crowded field could lead to a runoff if no candidate captures 50% of the vote.
Three other states, Alabama, Connecticut, and Vermont, will hold primaries ranging including congressional, state house seats and governor’s races in the two New England states.
Can Hong get past controversies?
Perhaps the only thing that could stop Hong, a Wisconsin state legislator, from winning the Aug. 11 Democratic gubernatorial nomination might be her past. She has sizeable, double-digit leads in a majority of polls. But a recent Marquette University poll found that 34% of Democratic voters are still undecided, and they could vote against Hong.
Less than two weeks before the primary, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ended his campaign, clearing Hong’s pathway.
Besides Hong and Crowley, other Democratic candidates for governor include state Sen. Kelda Roys and former Evers Cabinet secretary Joel Brennan. The latter two have polled in the single digits.
The democratic socialist frontrunner came under scrutiny for a 2020 social media post that raised the idea of canceling Thanksgiving. The controversy intensified after a CNN interview on Aug. 3, where Hong declined to disavow the resurfaced post, saying, “Thanksgiving is a time that is incredibly painful for many people in our communities.”
Those comments came on the same day Hong told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, part of the USA TODAY Network, that her since-deleted 2020 post calling for the idea of ridding Thanksgiving and other holidays was part of a series of “jokes” she made years ago.
The outrage prompted the leading Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, to say in a post on X: “Just so everyone knows where I stand, I won’t cancel Thanksgiving as governor.”
Hong eventually walked back the anti-Thanksgiving message, telling USA TODAY on Aug. 7, “There’s nothing more magical than being in a cranberry marsh, and cranberry stuffing is one of my absolute favorite dishes to make. I’m not going to cancel Thanksgiving.”
But Crowley, her opponent in the primary, said in an interview that Hong isn’t “ready for prime time.”
Democrats should be concerned about Hong if she becomes the nominee, said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which forecasts U.S. elections. Wisconsin is a swing state, narrowly carried by Trump, with a Republican legislature.
“That is a risky position, to have as a Democratic socialist in one of the most consequential swing states in the country,” Taylor said.
Burden said Hong has done remarkably well creating buzz with her grassroots campaign, speaking out against building AI data centers and the unwanted presence of ICE, posting yard signs and door-knocking on voters’ doors, said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“She’s the favorite going in it,” Burden said. “She has all the energy; she has better organization than the other campaigns, as the rest of the field is quite fractured.”
But Hong’s controversial comments may have some voters who were willing to go along with her candidacy now wondering whether she’s a liability if she wins the Democratic ticket.
“It’s just opened the door, a bit, for Crowley to potentially take this primary,” Burden said, believing that the anti-Hong sentiment vote may get split among the three other candidates. “Hong still has a lot of things working in her favor, but the door is open.”
Taylor cites the close matchup between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and U.S. Rep. Kelly Stevens in Michigan’s widely dissected Democratic Senate primary. El-Sayed had huge leads in the polls, similar to Hong’s current poll status in Wisconsin.
“And El-Sayed barely won,” Taylor said. “That said, Crowley could eek it out in Wisconsin.”
Meanwhile in the GOP primary, Tiffany will likely advance and take on the Democratic winner in the general election on Nov. 3.
Will Cooke’s cash determine Wisconsin’s competitive congressional primary?
Rebecca Cooke, who runs a nonprofit and has worked as a fundraiser for other Democrats, has raised $8.6 million — 17th overall among 3,636 House candidates nationwide as ranked by the Federal Election Commission — in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic race.
The amount is 17 times more than her primary opponent, Emily Berge, a mental health counselor and former president of the Eau Claire City Council, who has raised nearly $730,000, and more than Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who raised more than $7.5 million.
Cooke, who came in second in the 2022 Democratic primary and won it in 2024 before losing to Van Orden by less than 3 percentage points, is hoping the third time’s the charm.
The Democratic primary winner will face Van Orden.
Cooke is backed by national Democrats and also includes an early endorsement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which thinks Van Orden’s seat in western and southwestern Wisconsin is ripe for flipping and has targeted the race as crucial to Dems regaining control of the House.
Van Orden also sees Cooke as a threat, as they exchange barbs on social media, Burden said.
“Democratic voters are largely seeing her as the more electable option,” Burden said. “It’s fair to say the third time could be the charm for Cooke; She just needs to get past Berge to get there.”
Could Sean Duffy’s son-in-law join Congress?
Even though Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of Transportation Sec. Sean Duffy, has Trump’s endorsement, he’s facing tough criticism in Wisconsin’s deep-red 7th Congressional District Republican primary, due to concerns over his young age at 26 and lack of political experience.
Trump called Alfonso, the youngest candidate running for Congress, a “Young Star” and a “MAGA warrior” in his January endorsement to succeed Tiffany, who’s running for governor. The president’s backing hasn’t wavered; during a telephone town hall he held late last month for supporters, he heaped more praise, calling Alfonso “a winner.”
“Michael is with us all the way, and he always will be,” Trump said. “He’s never going to let you down.”
Alfonso, who calls himself a “pro-Trump conservative,” is married to Duffy’s daughter Evita.
The first-time candidate, who is going after the congressional seat his father-in-law also held, also has the support of the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action organization, and Duffy himself spent $1 million from his former congressional campaign account to boost Alfonso.
“It’s become a very Trumpy district,” Burden said. “Alfonso has an ad with Trump supporting him from the Oval Office. That’s a very powerful image in this district, especially among Republicans.”
Despite the anointment from D.C., Alfonso has liabilities.
“Alfonso’s barely old enough to serve in Congress, and some voters saw him skipping debates and forums as signs of immaturity, raising questions about if he was actually ready for the job,” Burden noted.
Among Alfonso’s challengers is Marine Corps veteran Kevin Hermening. Also in the running is Jessi Ebben, an Ashley Furniture executive. She’s supported by seven local county sheriffs and the conservative political action committee, Club for Growth. Wisconsin billionaire Diane Hendricks has also thrown her name in the race.
As the primary neared, Alfonso was the subject of an attack ad calling him a “nepo baby,” created by the American Future Fund Political Action, a third-party committee, according to a Federal Election Commission filing.
Will Sen. Darline Graham stay in her brother’s South Carolina seat?
Can supporters for Sen. Darline Graham, R-South Carolina, propel her to victory in a crowded 10-candidate field competing in a special primary election to get her name on the general ballot on Nov. 3?
Among her challengers who bucked Trump and are running in the special primary are Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford, and business owner Mark Lynch, who ran against Lindsey Graham in the June 9 GOP primary and lost.
Norman just ran for the South Carolina GOP primary for governor and finished third.
With so many candidates for the Republican Senate race, a runoff seems likely. If a candidate can’t nab 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters then advance to a special primary runoff on Aug. 25.
Voters to settle clash between Flanagan and Craig for Minnesota Democratic Senate primary
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is trying to win the Democratic Senate primary to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, but four-term U.S. Rep. Angie Craig is attacking her over a welfare scandal that happened on outgoing Gov. Tim Walz’s watch.
The two candidates are in a dead heat. Craig has a slim 42% to 40% lead over Flanagan, well within the margin of error, the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll finds.
Craig holds a significant lead among older voters, who typically participate at a higher rate than young voters in primary elections, the poll said. Among voters age 65 and older, Craig held 55% of the vote, compared to Flanagan’s 37%. Craig is also ahead in the 50-to-64 age demographic, while Flanagan, a progressive, leads among younger voters.
But 15% remain undecided and they could be the deciding factor, Aoki, the Augsburg University political science professor, said.
“This race is a lot harder to assess because they share somewhat similar views overall,” Aoki said. “Voters will be doing some nitpicking on key issues.”
The candidates are doing it themselves. During a tense public radio debate on July 27, Craig said Flanagan as lieutenant governor, “continues to take absolutely no accountability for any of the fraud issues, and she continues to blame the governor. And I’m going to be honest: It’s pissing me off.”
She added that Republicans, including GOP Senate primary favorite and former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, “are dying to run against” Flanagan on that topic.
Meanwhile, Flanagan continues to chastise Craig for voting in support of the Laken Riley Act, the immigration law long coveted by Trump, providing ICE agents with broader detention authority.
Civil and immigrant rights organizations said the law poses a threat to civil liberties and leads to increased racial profiling. Many Minnesota leaders believe the law fueled the state’s deadly Operation Metro Surge, the controversial federal immigration crackdown in Minneapolis and St. Paul, earlier this year.
“Voting three days into the second Trump administration for Donald Trump’s immigration bill that allowed him to terrorize our communities, the loss of life, the economic impact, the trauma — it’s horrific,” Flanagan told Craig.
Craig said she has regrets about voting for the bill, calling Trump an existential threat to the country.
Flanagan is not only endorsed by the state Democratic Party, but also fellow progressives, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, also of Minnesota, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Smith, the outgoing Minnesota senator.
Craig is endorsed by seven senators and several congressmembers, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and, surprisingly, Gwen Walz, Gov. Walz’s wife. The governor has remained neutral and not endorsed either candidate.
“I have a real hard time getting a sense of who’s going to win, with all of these unusual factors floating around,” Aoki said. “That’s the beauty of politics. You never know what will happen.”
Can Mike Lindell stave off late surge from GOP candidate for governor?
For months, it looked like former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, endorsed by Trump, had sewn up the GOP nomination for Minnesota governor, but a recent poll shows state House Speaker Lisa Demuth within striking distance: With 34%, Lindell is ahead of Demuth at 28%, according to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released on Aug. 7.
Demuth and fellow GOP candidate Kendall Qualls would make history by becoming Minnesota’s first Black governor.
Lindell is the presumptive favorite; He also “would be their weakest candidate,” because he’s never run for or held a political position, and his inexperience will be obvious Taylor, the Cook Political Report editor, said.
“If Lindell gets the nomination, he will get crushed,” Taylor said, as Minnesota’s GOP gubernatorial candidate winner will likely face Klobuchar in November’s general election to replace Walz.
Klobuchar is a virtual lock for governor, Aoki thinks. Klobuchar is a four-term senior senator who first won 20 years ago and serves as a Senate Democratic Steering Committee Chair, whose roles include setting the chamber’s agenda, unifying and dealmaking for her party. She ran unsuccessfully for president in 2020.
“She’s an electoral monster. I’ve heard from Republicans in the state who say ‘No way are we going up against that.'”
“And, of course, if she still has presidential ambitions, running the statehouse would be a good place to do it,” Aoki concluded.
Contributing: Phillip M. Bailey, Molly Beck, Clara Strecker, and Laura Schulte, USA TODAY