Trump’s war – Republicans are pressing President Donald Trump to decide whether to pour money into Texas as indicted and impeached Attorney General Ken Paxton battles Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. With Trump’s MAGA Inc. sitting on a $356 million war chest and Texas’
On a political night where money usually moves first, Republicans in Texas are waiting—watching—wondering if President Donald Trump will put his weight behind the man he helped propel onto the statewide stage.
Ken Paxton. the Texas attorney general whose record includes felony fraud charges and an impeachment by the Texas House. is now fighting to hold his place after ousting four-term Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff last month. The shift came on the heels of Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement that made Paxton the Republican U.S. Senate nominee in Texas, a move that pushed political forecasters to change their outlook. Texas, which Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024, moved from likely Republican to lean Republican.
The stakes aren’t just about one race. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. and they’re defending multiple seats in states expected to be competitive this fall. including North Carolina. Ohio. Maine. Alaska and possibly Iowa and Texas—while also targeting two Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan. both states Trump won in 2024.
At the center of the debate is Trump’s money. His super PAC. MAGA Inc. is sitting on a $356 million war chest. yet it has not committed money to help Paxton. MAGA Inc. spent nearly $377 million to elect Trump in 2024 and $1.7 million this cycle to boost Republicans Matt Van Epps and Clay Fuller in special congressional elections in Tennessee and Georgia.
“It would be very helpful if the president would help the people he endorsed,” Senator Cynthia Lummis, a retiring Republican from Wyoming, said when asked if Trump should put his financial might behind Paxton.
Inside the Republican establishment, concern is sharper than normal. Texas is an expensive place to run a Senate campaign, with 20 television media markets. The Republican establishment already burned through tens of millions of dollars boosting Cornyn. who was widely considered a safer bet for retaining the seat.
Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, the Senate Leadership Fund, has its own war chest—intends to spend $342 million in battleground states this fall—but its strategy does not include Texas. Senate Leadership Fund declined to comment.
“There is no doubt that Ken Paxton needs outside money to help him win this race,” said one Texas political operative.
That point—simple and blunt—doesn’t match the question Republicans are being forced to answer in public: whether Trump will back Paxton with the kind of investment that could keep Texas from slipping into the competitive column Democrats want.
Paxton’s fundraising numbers have made the pressure feel immediate. Through May 6. he raised $7.6 million and reported having just $2.3 million in the bank. a sharp contrast to his opponent’s strength. Paxton faces a rising star in the Democratic Party. state Representative James Talarico. whose campaign reported raising $40 million through March with $9.9 million on hand.
Paxton has denied any wrongdoing. His legal troubles and political fall have been part of his story for months: he was indicted for felony fraud and was impeached by the Texas House.
Talarico is drawing attention not only because of his cash advantage but because of his message. He has pulled in crowds in deeply Republican counties in Texas by openly talking about his Christian faith and his policies to take on billionaires he says are bent on keeping the working class angry and divided to protect their interests.
Republicans, for their part, have accused Talarico of holding heretical views and attacked him on immigration and gender issues. A June 9 Texas Pulse poll shows a tied race.
Senate Democrats are pressing the advantage created by the GOP’s own choices. “Paxton is now forcing the GOP to develop a completely new strategy for a state they never believed would be in play,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ super PAC.
In the Senate, the politics of money quickly runs into the politics of loyalty. While some Republicans see Trump’s endorsement as a responsibility, others are careful about sounding as if they’re directing the president.
“I won’t begin to tell the president what he should do,” Senator John Curtis of Utah said.
Asked if the president’s potential investment in Texas would be helpful to Senate Republicans, Curtis maintained it’s up to Trump. “That’s his funding,” Curtis said. “That’s his decision.”
Behind the scenes, at least one Senate Republican spoke in more straightforward terms, describing the assumption running through Washington. “The assumption is that he is” going to invest in Paxton. a Senate Republican. who spoke on condition of anonymity. said of Trump. “I think he should. He put his foot on the scale for his candidate that won. So we are assuming that he will.”.
Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser at MAGA Inc., told Politico the super PAC is raising money to spend on campaigns but doesn’t disclose when or where it will spend. LaCivita described Texas as an open Republican seat “that we’ll have to ensure that we win.”
The urgency is hard to miss. The final two years of Trump’s presidency are at stake. If Republicans lose control of Congress, Democratic-led congressional committees could investigate the Trump administration, and a Democratic Senate majority would have more control over the president’s nominees.
Spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
With Trump’s next move still unclear, attention has shifted to a second possible source of strength: Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
Analysts say Paxton faces a significant fundraising challenge against Talarico. and some blame Trump for creating a race that didn’t need to be this close. Cal Jillson. a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. said. “National Republicans understand Paxton’s vulnerabilities – at least that he’s likely to run in a close race – and they want to be in a position to do what’s required to pull him through.”.
Jillson also pointed to Trump’s endorsement as a catalyst. “And lots of people are pointing the finger directly at Donald Trump because it was his endorsement that created that stampede to Paxton in the runoff.”
Abbott’s bank account makes the question more than theoretical. Texans for Greg Abbott, Abbott’s political committee, reported nearly $96 million in cash on hand in February.
Eduardo Leal. Texans for Greg Abbott’s press secretary. said Abbott is supporting the entire Republican ticket. but declined to say if he would fund Paxton. “Republicans are united and focused on delivering a decisive victory. and we’re confident Texans will once again reject the radical left’s agenda. ” Leal said in a statement.
For now, Republicans are left with a familiar but uncomfortable feeling: a party’s ambitions hinging on whether money will show up where it’s expected.
Paxton has the endorsement that changed his political trajectory. Talarico has the fundraising advantage, the traction with voters across party lines, and a race that a poll shows tied. And in Washington, with MAGA Inc. holding $356 million and Senate Republicans preparing to spend $342 million elsewhere. the question has become less about whether Texas can be won—and more about whether the GOP will treat Texas like a must-win from the start.
Donald Trump MAGA Inc. Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Senate race Senate Leadership Fund Cynthia Lummis John Curtis Greg Abbott Texans for Greg Abbott Texas Pulse poll