primaries may – Three May elections tested President Donald Trump’s reach inside the Republican Party, producing wins for Trump-backed candidates—even as a New York Times/Siena poll shows his approval at a second-term low of 37 percent. The contrast points to who actually vot
When Trump-backed candidates swept three May contests, it looked like a message from the electorate: his influence was still strong.
In Indiana. five challengers backed by Trump defeated Republican state senators who opposed the president’s efforts to redraw state electoral maps. In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy—who angered Trump by voting to convict him in his second impeachment trial after January 6—lost decisively to a MAGA candidate backed by the president. In Kentucky. Trump turned his attention to House Republican Thomas Massie. an eight-term lawmaker who championed the release of the Epstein files and criticized the Iran war. Massie was defeated last night by Ed Gallrein, a Trump surrogate and political newcomer.
Trump has framed these results as proof that his grip on the party remains undiminished. But the same month carried another number. one that doesn’t flatter him: a New York Times/Siena poll released Tuesday put his approval rating at a second-term low of 37 percent. His unpopularity—on its face—creates a tension Republicans can’t ignore heading toward November.
Ready for prime time, that contradiction is tied to a less glamorous part of the electoral calendar. Primary elections are where ideological fights inside each party get hashed out. As Matt Yglesias, speaking through a Vox profile, once put it, “nuance enters the political process.”
Yet only 1 in 5 eligible voters turn out for midterm primaries, and those voters tend to be whiter, older, wealthier, and more partisan than the electorate overall. The result is a political atmosphere where ideas on the outer fringes of each party can dominate the room.
That helps explain why Trump-backed candidates have been able to win even while his approval has fallen. The New York Times/Siena poll found that. despite Trump’s low approval numbers. diehard Republicans remain loyal: three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters still approve of the job Trump is doing.
The stakes get sharper because primaries matter even more amid the so-called “redistricting wars.” Both parties are trying to redraw electoral maps and squeeze out additional safe seats. Gerrymandering and political self-sorting have made general elections far less competitive since the 1970s.
Today, most members of Congress come from districts that are either safely Democratic or safely Republican. Only 18 of 435 House races are considered toss-ups, according to the Cook Political Report. That means many members of Congress are effectively chosen in their party’s primary election.
Katherine Gehl. a political reformer. described the effect bluntly in 2022. telling Andrew Prokop: “The root cause of our political dysfunction is that November elections in this country are for the most part meaningless. Most November voters are wasting their time, which is…profoundly undemocratic and unrepresentative.”.
Reformers argue that if the system is going to change, the primary is the place to start. Gehl is among those pushing to scrap partisan primaries altogether—an effort Nevada adopted in 2022. In November of that year. Nevada voted to institute a nonpartisan primary where all candidates. regardless of party. compete in the same election. The top five candidates then go on to the general, where voters cast ballots for multiple candidates ranked by preference.
California, Washington, and Alaska also use a type of nonpartisan primary. Maine and New York City both use ranked-choice voting for some elections. Advocates say these setups can reduce polarization by forcing candidates to appeal to a wider swath of the electorate.
Whether any of those systems would have changed what happened to Bill Cassidy or Indiana Republicans is impossible to say. But the logic reformers point to is clearer: changing the primary structure—at least in theory—could insulate some independent-minded Republicans from the furor of Trump’s base.
For now, the May results are already giving Republicans something to wrestle with. Trump may be unpopular, but the party’s internal contests are still being decided by a narrow slice of voters—people who, even with declining approval, keep rewarding the candidates he backs.
Donald Trump primary elections midterm elections Indiana Louisiana Kentucky Bill Cassidy Thomas Massie Ed Gallrein redistricting wars gerrymandering Katherine Gehl nonpartisan primary ranked-choice voting