MLB trade deadline rumors: biggest questions ahead
Bob Nightengale breaks down the biggest trade deadline questions as contenders and sellers weigh their next moves.
Fifty trades went down in the final 31 hours of last year’s MLB trade deadline. Ninety-four prospects changed organizations within a week, 58 of them dealt on that final deadline day alone.
Every one of those deals was slapped with a grade within the hour of being announced. Winners and losers were declared, farm systems were mourned and by the following morning most of baseball had decided which teams were going to win in October.
A year later, when we check the work it looks a lot different.
Some so-called winners didn’t hold up. The Mets rented a closer and collapsed anyway. Houston brought back Carlos Correa and missed the postseason for the first time since 2016. Texas spent six prospects on pitching, finished 81-81 and three days after the season ended let future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy walk.
But three deals from that week are still shaping the standings today, and they did it in three different ways. One cost a top-five prospect in the sport. One barely made the headlines. One was a two-month rental that turned into a five-year contract.
Here is what actually had significant impact after the 2025 trade deadline.
Mason Miller did his part, the Padres didn’t
San Diego paid more than anybody. On July 31, 2025, they sent shortstop Leo De Vries, then the third-ranked prospect in baseball, plus three more arms to the Athletics for Mason Miller and JP Sears.
A.J. Preller was right about the pitcher. In the year since the trade, Miller has thrown 68⅔ innings, allowed six earned runs, struck out 132 and gone 235 straight batters without giving up an extra-base hit. There may not be a better reliever in the sport.
The Padres’ GM was wrong about how far out his team was. They only got three playoff games out of it. They scored five runs in the wild card round and lost to the Cubs.
But, they have a second chance. They are under .500 now, and Miller’s name is back in the trade rumors because he is under club control through 2029. The team control is the most valuable thing the Padres have this week.
Nobody noticed the Blue Jays best trade
Toronto got Louis Varland and first baseman Ty France from Minnesota for two prospects. It was the smaller of the two trades the Blue Jays made that day and it drew almost no attention. Shane Bieber got the headlines.
Varland pitched in 15 games that postseason, more than any reliever had, working in every round on Toronto’s way to Game 7 of the World Series. He made the All-Star team this summer. He cannot reach free agency until 2030. The Blue Jays are in a position to hold on to a good reliever or flip him this week.
The Twins were selling that week and moved four pieces, including shedding Carlos Correa’s salary. Minnesota is a game out of the wild card spot right now, and the return for that 2025 sell-off is part of the reason why.
How Josh Naylor changed the Mariners
Seattle needed a bat and rented one. Josh Naylor had two months left on his contract when the Mariners gave up three prospects for him, and there was no guarantee they would see him again after October.
He hit .299 with nine home runs and 19 steals in 210 plate appearances without being caught once, then hit .340 in the postseason. Seattle won the American League West for the first time since 2001, beat Detroit in the Division Series and pushed Toronto to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.
In November, two weeks after the World Series ended, the Mariners signed Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million contract with a full no-trade clause. He said he felt comfortable there after the trade. The rental is now the middle of their lineup through 2020.
What this means for 2026
None of these three deals can be judged by what it cost. San Diego gave up the third-ranked prospect in baseball and got three games in October. Toronto gave up two players nobody would have protected from the Rule-5 Draft and got an All-Star closer who did work in October. Seattle gave up three prospects for a rental that stuck around and is now anchoring their lineup.
What the three deals have in common is on the other side of the ledger. Miller is under control through 2029, Varland through 2030 and Naylor’s contract has him in Seattle through 2030 as well.
So when looking at the moves that will be made through Monday Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. take the long view, that’s what separated the winners from the losers of last year.