Ben Shelton stuns Alcaraz, advances to US Open semifinal showdown with Tiafoe
Ben Shelton takes down defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set thriller and advances to an all-American U.S. Open semifinal against Frances Tiafoe in NYC on Sept. 11.
An American man hasn’t reigned victorious at the US Open since Andy Roddick won in 2003, a decades-long drought that has dominated headlines in recent years. But the men representing red, white and blue have a good shot at putting an end to that streak with an American man guaranteed in the 2026 US Open final.
No. 8 Ben Shelton vs. No. 11 Frances Tiafoe both advanced to the semifinals, setting up an All-American showdown on Friday, Sept. 11 in New York. Shelton defeated defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a thrilling five-set quarterfinal match on Tuesday to move on, while Tiafoe completed a five-set comeback over Alex Michelsen.
No. 4 Coco Gauff was the last American to win the US Open in 2023. She advanced to the women’s semifinal round, along with No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, No. 2 Elena Rybakina, who will be the new No. 1 after the tournament, and No. 3 Jessica Pegula.
From tournament favorites and proven champions to dangerous dark horses capable of bigger surprises, our experts give their takes on the men’s and women’s draws with predictions of the semifinal round:
US Open predictions in women’s semifinals
Scooby Axson’s predictions
Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t been her dominant self, but she has gotten through to the semifinals, especially with a less-than-stellar serve. Jessica Pegula was the pick from the beginning, so there will be no deviation there. A three-set, three-hour game is likely, with the Buffalo native prevailing.
Pretty sure Coco Gauff couldn’t care less how she looked against Mirra Andreeva, but gutted out a victory despite 42 unforced errors and a serve that on any other day would have gotten her beat. If she plays that way against Elena Rybakina, she will be packing her bags in less than an hour. Rybakina seems fully recovered from an injury that forced her out in Cincinnati, and now that she has the No. 1 ranking, she can drive that confidence to the final.
Danielle Lerner’s predictions
Neither Aryna Sabalenka nor Jessica Pegula have played their best tennis this tournament, but Pegula has some extra juice playing in her home Slam and knowing that, at 32, her window to win a major is closing. She’ll prevail in a gritty three-set match and get revenge on Sabalenka for knocking her out of last year’s US Open semis.
The way Coco Gauff’s serve wilted in her lackluster quarterfinal performance should not inspire confidence. But she woke up just in time to save several match points and dominated the third set. It reminded me of her awful start and subsequent comeback against Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final, the American’s first major title. So while it may not be smooth sailing, I have faith that Gauff will right the ship and beat Elena Rybakina.
Cydney Henderson’s predictions
Death, taxes … and an Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula showdown in the US Open. The two tennis superstars are set to meet on Arthur Ashe Stadium for the third consecutive year. So far, Sabalenka has had Pegula’s number in New York. Sabalenka defeated Pegula in straight sets the 2024 US Open final, Pegula’s first and only Grand Slam finals appearance, and knocked Pegula out of the semifinals last year. Sabalenka owns the head-to-head matchup, 9-4, and enters Thursday’s semifinal with a chip on her shoulder after losing her World No. 1 ranking to Elena Rybakina after spending 99 consecutive weeks atop the WTA standings. I’m picking Sabalenka.
Speaking of Rybakina, she’ll face Coco Gauff in her first US Open semifinal appearance. Rybakina and Gauff dominated early in the tournament and didn’t drop a set through the fourth round. But both players showed they’re human in the quarterfinals, with Gauff and Rybakina each fighting back from a set down to win. I initially picked Gauff to win the whole tournament, but the serving and forehead woes that snuck up in her matchup concern me. The head-to-head between Gauff and Rybakina is tied at 1-1, with Rybakina taking their last matchup 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 at the Canadian Open semis last month. With that being said, I’m taking Rybakina.
US Open predictions in men’s semifinals
Scooby Axson’s predictions
This is Ben Shelton’s tournament to lose. A big serve and a bigger confidence, especially after beating Carlos Alcaraz in that epic five-set match. Frances Tiafoe also spent more than four hours on the court, so both men should be good to go. Shelton, who will vault to No. 4 in the rankings, will take this historic match in straight sets, with a chance to break that much-talked-about American men’s Grand Slam drought.
Karen Khachanov should be well rested after spending only an hour and 38 minutes in his match with Alexander Blockx, but will run into top seed Alexander Zverev, who has gotten better as the tournament has progressed and has seemed to have gotten those lengthy five-setters out of his system and should roll to the final for a chance at his second Grand Slam title this year.
Danielle Lerner’s predictions
Sorry Frances Tiafoe, but your good friend Ben Shelton is taking this one to the bank. Shelton’s scorching serve and athleticism are already tough to beat, but if his net play is as dynamic as it was in the thriller against Alcaraz, the semifinal won’t need to go five sets.
Unseeded Karen Khachanov made an admirable push to get back to the US Open semis for the first time since 2022, but his run ends against top seed Alexander Zverev. Zverev was taken to five sets in his first two matches but has since won 10 sets in a row, and I don’t see his form dipping. Not to mention that Zverev owns a 6-3 career record against Khachanov, including wins in four of their last five meetings.
Cydney Henderson’s predictions
Ben Shelton owns the head-to-head against Frances Tiafoe 3-1, most recently defeating his fellow American 7-6(2), 6-4 at the DC Open quarterfinal last year. Both Shelton and Tiafoe are vying for their first Grand Slam finals appearance after marathon quarterfinal rounds. The semifinal matchup may come down to which player can regroup the quickest after emotional wins. Shelton will enter the matchup with a new level of confidence after knocking out Alcaraz. Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev meets Karen Khachanov in the semifinal after cruising past Botic van de Zandschulp 6-2, 7-5, 6-1 on Wednesday night. Zverev, the top seed, has played his way into the tournament and will take down Khachanov to make his third Grand Slam final appearance this year.
US Open semifinal bracket
Thursday, Sept. 10
- No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 3 Jessica Pegula | 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- No. 2 Elena Rybakina vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff | 8:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Friday, Sept. 11
- No. 1 Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov | TBD (ESPN)
- No. 8 Ben Shelton vs. No. 11 Frances Tiafoe | TBD (ESPN)
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