US-Israel split – Iran’s first direct attack on Israel since an early April ceasefire set off a new round of tension between Washington and Jerusalem, as President Donald Trump pressed restraint while Israel struck inside Iran and both sides moved to de-escalate.
On Sunday night, the moment Iran fired its first direct barrage at Israel since the tentative ceasefire in early April, it changed the temperature of the war—and the alliance meant to manage it.
Tehran said the strikes were retaliation for Israel’s prior offensive in southern Lebanon. Israel, for its part, was already watching the clock on what Trump had asked for. In the hours after the attack. Trump said he had urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate so ceasefire talks could continue. Trump also told the Financial Times in an interview on Sunday that Netanyahu “won’t have any choice. ” but to accept a US-negotiated ceasefire. adding. “I call the shots. ” and. “I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”.
Yet by Monday, Netanyahu appeared to respond anyway.
Israel launched strikes against a petrochemical plant in southern Iran—its first strikes inside the country since the ceasefire. US officials said the US military did not participate in the attacks.
Within days, both sides tried to cool things down. Iran’s military said it had concluded its operations against Israel for now. Netanyahu instructed his military to halt preparations for another attack after Trump posted on Truth Social that both countries “immediately stop ‘shooting.’”
On the surface, the sequence made it look like Netanyahu had defied Trump. But later reporting described a different dynamic: sources told the Wall Street Journal that Netanyahu had made clear to Trump in a conversation on Sunday that he had to retaliate. while Trump had urged him to keep the response limited. Either way. the signal was unmistakable—when it comes to the war. the incentives pushing the two leaders in opposite directions are becoming harder to paper over.
The personal friction between them has been sharp for months. The airstrikes landed just a week after a tense phone call in which Trump called Netanyahu “fucking crazy” and accused him of ingratitude over what Trump felt was Israel’s disproportionate military actions in Lebanon. On Sunday. Trump also said he warned Netanyahu that if he escalated the war further. he might soon be left to fight Iran alone.
The growing split isn’t new; it’s just harder to hide. Israel’s end goal since the operation began—an effort initially known as Operation Epic Fury in the United States and Operation Roaring Lion in Israel—has been regime change in Tehran. The United States, by contrast, has been more focused on regional stability.
As was the case in Gaza, Israeli officials felt the ceasefire with Iran had been imposed by the United States and that their objectives had not yet been met.
What makes the current moment especially combustible is timing. Both leaders are heading into elections.
Netanyahu faces the very real possibility of losing power in national elections in late October. Trump’s Republicans may lose one or both houses of Congress in midterm elections in November. Israel’s war, meanwhile, has remained extremely popular. It would be harder for Netanyahu to sell the effort to Israeli voters if the war ended with Iran’s regime still in place—after months in and out of bomb shelters—when Iran could be rebuilding its missile forces. its proxy networks. and perhaps even its nuclear program. Netanyahu is also dealing with his own political pressure. including his ongoing corruption trial and criticism over the security failures that led to the October 7. 2023. terrorist attacks.
US officials, for their part, face political arithmetic of a different kind. Trump is still aiming to salvage a victory from Epic Fury. and he has shown he won’t cut a deal with Iran at any price. But ending a war unpopular with American voters—especially one that has driven up the cost of living—would likely be in his party’s interest as quickly as possible.
The relationship has always carried the risk of misalignment. Israel’s military is pushing ever more aggressively into Lebanon in response to rocket attacks from Iran’s ally Hezbollah, despite US-led efforts to reach a ceasefire there.
Michael Koplow. chief policy officer at the US-based Israel Policy Forum. put it plainly: “There was no way that Netanyahu — when he’s so close to an election when he’s underwater. and when people are already angry about what’s going on in northern Israel [where Hezbollah is firing missiles] — could simply not respond to direct Iranian ballistic missiles on Israeli territory.”.
Even as de-escalation steps were announced. both leaders have been careful to signal that they are not letting the other “call the shots.” Netanyahu has faced growing criticism from electoral opponents for turning Israel into a client state of the United States and for failing to stand up to Trump. That criticism will intensify if Israel is pressured into agreeing to a US-brokered ceasefire viewed as favorable to Iran.
Trump, meanwhile, is taking heat from opponents and members of his own coalition for taking marching orders from Israel. He continues to emphasize that he’s the dominant partner in the relationship.
In the weeks ahead, Lebanon is poised to be the biggest stress point in the partnership. Israel views Hezbollah as an imminent threat and wants to separate it from the negotiations with Iran so Israel can keep striking in Lebanon as it sees fit. The Iranians. as they did on Sunday. are eager to link the two battlefields and demand that any ceasefire also cover Lebanon. That places the Trump administration in an awkward position: Hezbollah is far less existential for the United States than it is for Israel. and Israel’s actions in Lebanon are increasingly seen as an obstacle to ending the wider war.
Trump has already pushed Israel to curtail some of its operations and avoid strikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
It will complicate any effort to end the fighting if the United States has to negotiate a ceasefire with not just its adversary. Iran. but with its ally. Israel. Still, there appears to be a floor to just how bad relations can get. Even with Trump’s willingness to publicly humiliate Netanyahu—he has been more outspoken than many other US presidents—he is also more ready to align with Israel’s actual policies in Iran. Lebanon. or the Palestinian territories. For Netanyahu, publicly breaking with Trump has its own limits.
What remains unclear is whether last weekend’s exchange of missiles and strikes marks something deeper than a temporary flare-up. The real test for whether the US-Israeli relationship has fundamentally changed is likely to come when one or both of these leaders are out of office.
US-Israel relations Iran-Israel conflict Donald Trump Benjamin Netanyahu ceasefire talks Operation Epic Fury Operation Roaring Lion Lebanon Hezbollah Truth Social missile strikes