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Trump’s Paxton nod jolts Texas runoff and Senate GOP unity

Trump endorses – In the final stretch of Texas’ Republican Senate runoff, President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn—an abrupt break that critics say leaves the White House and Senate GOP more divided heading into a November matchup with Democra

By the time Texas voters reached the May 26 runoff ballot, the race had already been tense. Then President Donald Trump stepped in—and the math for the Senate GOP changed again.

Trump. who has eliminated congressional Republican dissidents through the 2026 primaries. threw his weight behind Ken Paxton. the state attorney general. over four-term Sen. John Cornyn just a week before the critical runoff. Trump’s endorsement did not land quietly. It came after Cornyn. once the second-highest ranking Senate Republican. declined for months to publicly back a candidate in a bitter primary and became a target for the administration’s efforts to keep Republican lawmakers aligned.

Trump called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior.” He also portrayed Cornyn as lacking support “when times were tough. ” despite Cornyn’s consistently conservative voting record. Trump’s comments were the clearest signal yet that the White House is willing to destabilize an already strained relationship with Senate Republicans.

Cornyn has pushed back by focusing on Paxton’s record. In a May 20 digital ad. Cornyn’s campaign highlighted Paxton’s alleged scandals. including claims about Paxton’s net worth ballooning to $12 million during his time in office. owning almost a dozen homes. and allegations of infidelity and his divorce. The ad did not name Democrat James Talarico directly. but warned Paxton could become the spark for the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988.

“Paxton’s scandals will dominate the election,” the Cornyn ad voiceover said, adding: “Ken Paxton is filthy rich, but he’s morally bankrupt. ‘Crooked Ken’ is a mortal threat to the America First agenda.”

Whether Trump’s move convinces Paxton’s backers—or disorients the party—could determine not only the winner of a Texas runoff, but how easily Republicans can govern through 2026.

A vote between two Republicans, but the consequences reach beyond Texas

Trump’s endorsement comes after top Senate leaders and former Trump campaign advisors unsuccessfully lobbied the White House on Cornyn’s behalf. Mark Jones. a professor of political science at Rice University in Houston. said the Cornyn campaign and its allies never persuaded Trump that Paxton was a greater liability for Republicans than Cornyn.

Jones said Cornyn still technically had a path, but framed it as narrow: he “wouldn’t want to say that Cornyn has no chance of victory on Tuesday,” adding that Cornyn’s chances of winning were “very remote” and “more likely than not, he’s now a dead man walking.”

A SoCal Strategies survey of likely GOP voters in Texas, conducted after Trump’s endorsement, found Paxton leading Cornyn by 21 points.

Paxton’s allies responded to the endorsement with confidence. Gregg Keller. spokesman for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC. said Trump’s move reinforces what supporters already believe about Paxton’s fit for the Republican Party. particularly in Texas. Keller said Paxton is “a guy who the grassroots love. ” and described him as “a conservative through and through. ” asserting he “doesn’t need to fake or pretend” to be MAGA or “America First.”.

On Cornyn’s side, the campaign rejected the tone of reconciliation. After Paxton and his allies indicated they were shutting off attack ads aimed at Cornyn and urged conservatives to reconcile early after a bruising primary, the Cornyn campaign pushed back publicly.

On May 21, in a post on X, the Texas GOP chair Abraham George called on both Senate candidates to “pull all negative advertising” and finish the runoff campaign on a “positive note” ahead of the fall campaign.

But Cornyn’s team did not match that approach. In a May 21 post on X responding directly to Paxton. Cornyn said Paxton is “desperate to avoid accountability.” The campaign said it plans to “burn in” facts about Paxton’s record. including a plea deal offered by prosecutors in April to a Waco man charged with repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy.

On May 22, Cornyn’s campaign posted: “(Election Day) is judgment day,” adding: “We fought for Texas. We worked for Texas. And we’re not going to quit telling the truth about someone who could put it all at risk.”

One presidential endorsement, widening fractures in a Senate GOP that already feels unsettled

Trump’s endorsement is landing amid a broader friction between the White House and Senate Republicans. Political observers point to lawmakers beginning to buck the administration over the war in Iran and to the planned White House ballroom efforts that have drawn attention. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his primary reelection bid after voting to convict the president in his second impeachment trial. Cassidy later voted to advance the war powers resolution to end the war in Iran. after previously opposing the measure before his reelection loss.

If Cornyn falls, he could join a small but critical group of Republican senators willing to break with the president—because they are either retiring or lost their primary after opposition to Trump.

Jessica Taylor. an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. said Trump’s endorsement may energize his base while making the Senate harder to operate in an election year. She argued Trump has made senators “free agents” by reducing their need to worry about reelection and by loosening what she described as “fealty to Trump.”.

Her warning echoes complaints from some Republicans about how Trump’s approach reshapes incentives inside the party.

Sen. Lindsey Graham. R-South Carolina. said the Paxton endorsement will make the Texas contest more expensive for Republicans because Paxton is more vulnerable to a Democratic upset than Cornyn. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-South Dakota, said many conference members were “disappointed” that Trump did not back Cornyn.

The tension arrives alongside other flashpoints. GOP members have expressed unease about a Justice Department initiative—a newly announced $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that could funnel payments to Trump allies. including individuals convicted in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Sen. Mitch McConnell. R-Kentucky. called the idea “a slush fund to pay people who assault cops. ” saying in a May 21 statement: “Utterly stupid. morally wrong — take your pick.”.

Jesse Hunt. a GOP strategist and former spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. said these developments create a “unique dynamic” for the White House because of the number of Senate Republicans who are either retiring or lost their reelection bids after clashing with Trump. Hunt argued that many senators are coming to accept “this is Trump’s party now.” He also said he believes the only thing that matters for Leader Thune is “holding the Senate majority.”.

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Other experts disagree with the trade-off. Taylor said Trump is acting in a way that doesn’t help the party keep its congressional majorities or govern through the remainder of 2026.

A November race that both Republicans now fear could be competitive

Texas polling suggests the winner of the May 26 runoff may face a tougher general election than many Republicans expect.

Cook Political Report rates Texas as “likely” Republican. But its forecast says nominating Paxton would make the race more competitive.

Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points in 2024. Yet a poll released earlier this month by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found no matter which Republican advances, the contest could narrow.

If Paxton advances, about 45% of voters said they would back the attorney general compared with 45% for Talarico. If Cornyn advances, Cornyn received 45% compared with 44% for Talarico, the poll found.

Democrat James Talarico has gained national attention since his primary campaign against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, raising $27 million in the first three months of 2026. Former President Barack Obama joined Talarico on the campaign trail earlier this year when the two posed for a photo at a taco restaurant in Austin.

Some conservatives dismiss the idea that Texas is in play this year. arguing that once their MAGA machine turns fully toward Talarico. support will erode. Trump has amplified those doubts while mocking Talarico. Speaking to reporters May 15 on Air Force One as he returned from China. Trump called Talarico a “weird. a weird candidate.” He also mocked Talarico by falsely claiming the 37-year-old legislator is a vegan.

In a March 19 interview with “The Bulwark Podcast,” Talarico “definitively, categorically” denied the accusation, saying: “Our campaign basically runs on barbecue these days.”

Trump also said Talarico believes there are “six genders,” an attack tied to Talarico’s objections to an April 2021 Texas bill that would have required public school students to play on athletic teams based on their assigned sex at birth.

During the debate, Talarico said modern science recognizes “many more than two biological sexes — in fact, there are six.” He added that it surprised him as well.

Supporters for Talarico argue it won’t matter which Republican emerges from the runoff. Texas state Rep. Ron Reynolds. D-Missouri City. a Talarico supporter. told MISRYOUM: “Donald Trump and Ken Paxton are two adulterous. felonious. impeached peas in a pod — so it’s no surprise that they’re banding together.” Reynolds said. “We’re ready to defeat whichever extreme Republican primary voters choose on Tuesday.”.

For Republicans hoping to settle the race and move on, the endorsement has introduced a new kind of urgency: not just choosing a nominee, but managing a party already splitting between allegiance to the White House and anxiety about governing.

It’s why the runoff’s final day feels like more than an intra-party contest—especially in a year when Senate control, and the ability to pass legislation, hinges on whether Republican leaders can agree on anything at all.

Donald Trump Ken Paxton John Cornyn Texas Senate runoff James Talarico Senate Republicans Cook Political Report Justice Department anti-weaponization fund Mitch McConnell MAGA campaign finance

4 Comments

  1. I don’t get why Cornyn is getting blamed when he’s literally been there forever. Sounds like the GOP is eating itself for real.

  2. Ken Paxton is the one who got indicted right? Or am I mixing him up with someone else. Either way Trump calling him a “true MAGA Warrior” feels like he’s just picking whoever causes the most chaos.

  3. This article says it “jolts” the runoff but it’s probably gonna help Paxton, right? Like, Trump endorsing one guy a week before seems planned. Also they keep saying Cornyn didn’t support “when times were tough” but how would we even know what he said behind closed doors. The Texas GOP is not unified, shocking.

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