Trump’s approval sinks past 38% as coalition cracks

Trump approval – President Donald Trump’s approval has slid to 38% with 58% disapproving, a prolonged dip that has kept him below 40% since late April. The drop stands out because it appears to break the usual “floor” of support tied to the MAGA base, with growing discontent a

For weeks, President Donald Trump has been stuck in a slump. Now the numbers landing on Monday are making it harder to look away.

The New York Times’ national polling average showed 38% of Americans approving of Trump’s performance and 58% disapproving. The approval rating hasn’t broken a 40% average since late April. Bad polling alone is nothing new for a president—Trump has seen horrific runs before and bounced back—but this stretch is different in how far below that familiar line he remains.

What makes this collapse stand out is that it challenges an idea many political observers have relied on: that there’s a bottom level of support, anchored by his MAGA base, that keeps numbers from falling too far. Approval this far underwater suggests that floor may be moving—or giving way.

The shift isn’t confined to one group. The Washington Post noted last week that a growing number of white voters without college degrees disapprove of Trump’s performance. At the same time, young and nonwhite voters who swung right in the 2024 election have jumped back to the left. Independents’ support, meanwhile, has only crawled downward compared to when Trump’s term began.

Republicans worried about winning in November have reason to feel the pressure in that broader movement away from Trump. But the bigger consequence may be the collapse of the coalition that sent him to office. When disapproval spreads across multiple blocs—rather than staying contained within a predictable partisan boundary—the path back becomes steeper.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston, put it in terms that match what the numbers are starting to suggest. He told the Los Angeles Times that “Polarization has raised the floor and lowered the ceiling for approval ratings.”

Rottinghaus also said, “Dramatic swings are less common because approval ratings are now fixed to partisanship.” In his view, approval ratings today increasingly reflect “who the president is rather than what the president does.”

That helps explain why so many people have treated approval ratings like something more stable than they really are—until now. The same pattern shows up in another classic measure of national mood: whether the country is moving in the right direction or moving in the wrong direction. That question. the piece notes. has become linked to whether one supports the person in the Oval Office. making it a less reliable barometer for the public’s overall sense of where things stand.

And with Trump’s approval stuck at 38% and disapproval at 58%—with the approval average failing to rise above 40% since late April—the question stops being whether a recovery is possible. It becomes whether the usual political gravity still applies. or whether the coalition built for 2016 and sharpened during 2024 is loosening in real time.

Donald Trump approval rating polling MAGA base polarization independents white voters without college degrees young voters nonwhite voters 2024 election New York Times national polling average Washington Post