10-year Colorado – As Lake Mead and Lake Powell keep shrinking, the Trump administration is preparing a 10-year framework that could require steep Colorado River reductions for California, Arizona and Nevada—potentially up to 3 million acre-feet a year.
When Arizona water officials met with federal counterparts in Phoenix this week, the message landed with force: the Trump administration is drawing up a 10-year framework that could shift Colorado River negotiations from voluntary saving to mandatory cutbacks.
The Colorado River is the lifeline for Southern California and much of the Southwest. but its two largest reservoirs—Lake Mead and Lake Powell—are severely depleted and still dropping.. Federal officials told state leaders that they are developing a 10-year “framework” with specific rules requiring water reductions that would be reassessed every two years. according to Tom Buschatzke. director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources.
Buschatzke said the outline would go beyond what negotiators for California, Arizona and Nevada have offered so far.. Those states have proposed using roughly 1.6 million acre-feet less annually over the next two years.. Under the Trump administration’s plan. Buschatzke said the three states could face mandatory cutbacks of up to 3 million acre-feet per year—about 40% of their combined allotments.
That magnitude is hard for officials to treat as theoretical. Buschatzke said the prospect of those large mandatory cuts is a sobering possibility for Arizona.
The federal push comes as the stakes around the river grow more immediate.. The Colorado River provides water for about 35 million people and 5 million acres of farmland. stretching from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico.. Farms use about three-fourths of the water drawn from the river. much of it for growing alfalfa and other hay for cattle.
Over the last three years, states have leaned on voluntary water cutbacks and federal payments to farmers who agree to leave fields dry part of the year. But the reservoirs continue to fall sharply.
Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, is now just 30% full.. Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir, is at 24% capacity, upstream along the Utah-Arizona border.. The administration has already taken emergency measures to keep Glen Canyon Dam able to generate hydropower. releasing extra water from another upstream reservoir to raise Lake Powell’s level.
An extremely warm and dry winter has made the outlook worse. So little snow has fallen in the Rocky Mountains that the runoff expected to reach Lake Powell this spring and summer is forecast at just 13% of average, the lowest on record.
Federal documents have also laid bare the growing urgency.. In January, the Trump administration released a draft outline of several options for handling deepening shortages.. One alternative was labeled “basic coordination,” described as feasible even without an agreement among the states.. Others laid out different ways of apportioning cuts, including plans titled “enhanced coordination,” “maximum operational flexibility” and “supply driven.”
At the time. Scott Cameron. the Bureau of Reclamation’s acting commissioner. urged state officials to negotiate an agreement by mid-February. calling for a “consensus-based approach.” That deadline passed. and leaders of seven states failed to reach a deal.. Negotiators have deadlocked on how to reduce water use. with disagreements dividing three downstream states—California. Arizona and Nevada—against upstream states of Colorado. Wyoming. Utah and New Mexico.. The four upper states have called for a mediator to try to break the impasse.
California’s lead negotiator welcomed the federal government’s willingness to step in.. “I think it is a smart approach. ” JB Hamby said. “to both having longer-term planning and adapting to variable hydrology on a more regular basis.” He said the strategy appears better than setting long-term rules based on assumptions and then “being locked into them for decades.”
The conflict sits on a long-running foundation that many now say has become unworkable.. The river was originally divided under the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which overpromised how much water the river could reliably provide.. In practice, decades of heavy withdrawal have left the river seldom meeting the sea.. In Mexico. the river’s delta—once a vast mosaic of wetlands and forests—has mostly dried up. leaving only scattered wetlands along a sandy river channel that runs through farmland.
Since 2000, the Colorado has shrunk dramatically as climate change has intensified dry conditions in the Rocky Mountains.
In the bureaucratic language of federal environmental review. Peter Soeth. a spokesperson for the Bureau of Reclamation. said the agency has “identified preliminary elements of a preferred alternative” and has “initiated consultations” with states. tribes and Mexico.. “Given the risk and uncertainty. ” Soeth said. the approach is “designed to provide stability while allowing flexibility” to incorporate recommendations that states agree on.. The Bureau of Reclamation said it will announce its decision sometime in the summer.
For California, Arizona and Nevada, the federal framework points toward a future where water sharing could be dictated by rules that stretch well beyond the next two years—unless the states can break the deadlock in time to shape what happens next.
Colorado River Trump administration Bureau of Reclamation Lake Mead Lake Powell water cuts mandatory reductions Arizona Department of Water Resources JB Hamby water negotiations