President Donald Trump and other Republicans have argued Los Angeles’ mayoral vote count was “rigged” after progressive city council member Nithya Raman surged past reality star Spencer Pratt. But a CNN data analyst argued the accusation doesn’t fit the math—b
When President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Republicans were being “cheated” in California’s “crooked” elections, he wasn’t just reacting to a headline—he was reacting to a shifting count in the Los Angeles mayor’s race.
On Sunday. Nithya Raman. a progressive city council member. narrowly overtook reality star and right-wing candidate-of-choice Spencer Pratt’s second-place spot in the local race. The change likely set her on a path to a November runoff against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The vote swing didn’t happen in a vacuum. Trump and other conservatives said it felt “fishy” that Raman leapfrogged Pratt so long after last Tuesday’s election. even as California’s election result delays remain familiar to voters and lawmakers.
The reason conservatives say their suspicions won’t cool—while election officials work through a backlog—is also the reason a data-focused critic says their story doesn’t add up. California has more mail-in ballots to count than any other state. and state law lets ballots postmarked by Election Day arrive at election offices and still be counted up to seven days later.
As Republicans accused Democrats of fixing the race. CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten pointed to what he called a basic flaw in the conspiracy theory—one rooted in who the Democratic establishment supposedly wanted. Speaking on “CNN News Central” Monday morning. Enten described the idea that Bass was part of a scheme to alter outcomes as “the dumbest conspiracy theory I have ever heard. ” adding. “because the Democratic establishment and Karen Bass wanted Spencer Pratt in the runoff.”.
Enten argued that if Bass was “crushing” Pratt in the polls. she would have had every incentive to face him rather than risk a tougher challenge. “She wanted to face Pratt; she wanted nothing to do with Raman. ” he said. explaining that this is why. in his view. the accusations “make no sense. people.”.
Enten’s numbers were meant to show the mismatch between the allegation and the underlying incentives. He said Bass had an 18-point edge on Spencer Pratt while Pratt would be four points behind Raman in the potential matchup. The favorability snapshot he cited was even starker: Raman was up five compared to Bass’ 22-point under. and Pratt. he said. had a 32-point crater.
Even with the momentum Raman showed and the early figures Monday morning, officials have not been able to declare a final result. By Monday morning, Raman held around a 3,100 lead on Pratt, according to the numbers available at the time.
California law gives election officials a full 30 days to process ballots, and so far only 83% of votes had been counted.
Los Angeles mayoral race Nithya Raman Spencer Pratt Karen Bass Donald Trump Truth Social vote counting mail-in ballots Harry Enten California election law
“Cheated” again, huh.
I didn’t even know LA was still counting stuff. So they’re saying it’s rigged but also just mail ballots taking forever? Kinda makes both sides sound dumb, not gonna lie.
Harry Enten said it doesn’t add up because Bass “wanted” Spencer Pratt?? Wait how would Bass want her opponent in a runoff if she’s supposed to be crushing him. That’s what I don’t get. Also 7 days later ballots sounds like a loophole to me.
This is why I hate California elections. They act like backlog is normal like always, but then the numbers suddenly flip and everyone’s like “math says no.” If Trump posted “crooked” and “cheated” maybe there’s smoke. But then again Spencer Pratt is some reality guy so idk why everyone cares so much. Sounds like nobody knows anything until the runoff.