Texas Senate – With four months until Texas’ November midterm election, new independent polls show a razor-thin Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Republicans say President Donald Trump and other top party leaders plan to campaign in Texas
The math in Texas is getting uncomfortably close again.
In the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, four independent polls conducted between June 1 and June 21 show Paxton ahead by just 1.25 percentage points. Paxton is at 45.75% while Talarico is at 44.5%, leaving the outcome all but pinned to turnout.
Four months out from the November midterm election, Republican leaders are already moving to tighten the narrative around Paxton—and to prevent Democrats from seeing Texas as reachable.
President Donald Trump, along with other Republican leaders including Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, has said he will campaign in Texas for Paxton. Paxton reportedly said during a recent tele-town hall that Republicans will hold a special midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. A source told CBS News Texas that the first two weeks of the facility have been reserved by the RNC. though it has not been officially booked yet.
Michael Williams—an Alabama?. no. a former Texas Railroad Commissioner and former Texas Education Agency Commissioner—argued Trump should come to Texas “starting right away. ” saying he motivates the grassroots. “I think he needs to pitch a tent in Texas,” Williams said. “He needs to change his voter registration from Florida and move somewhere in Texas. He needs to be here on the regular, campaigning for Attorney General Paxton.”.
Williams praised the idea of the Dallas midterm convention, saying, “Conventions energize your voters and energize your volunteers. It gives you an opportunity to get free TV time for your candidates. That would be a great idea.”
The urgency comes after months of speculation—speculation that ended when Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn on the second day of early voting for the primary runoff. Paxton won that primary runoff by a landslide margin of 28 percentage points.
Republican Senate leaders had urged Trump to back Cornyn, believing Cornyn would have easily defeated Talarico while Paxton would face a harder fight.
For Williams, the point isn’t only whether Paxton wins—it’s whether Republicans keep control of the broader map.
“He put his thumb on the scale. He broke it. He owns it. Therefore, in order to make sure that we not only win Texas, that we do not lose the U.S. Senate, that we do not change the narrative about Texas and Texas Republican victories, he needs to be here,” Williams said.
During the midterm election, Williams said Texas is “ground zero.”
He described a long-running Republican storyline about the state—one that. in his view. Democrats must not be allowed to challenge. “The narrative has always been that we’re red, that we’re redder than red. Democrats don’t have a chance in Texas. The last thing we want to do is to give Democrats one inkling of an idea that they can win a statewide race in Texas.”.
Williams argued that if Texas goes the other way, the damage could spread beyond one Senate contest. “If you lose Texas, it’s my sense that you’ll lose one or more of those other five U.S. Senate seats that are up for election right now. But this is one that Democrats have not won,” he said. He added that Democrats “have not won a U.S. Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988” and “haven’t won a statewide race of any kind since 1994.”.
Even with Texas’ structural Republican advantage for decades, Williams said the party can’t treat this year like autopilot.
“This is a different cycle. In this particular cycle, it is extremely important for Republicans to mend the sort of division between Senator Cornyn and [Attorney] General Paxton and his voters,” Williams said.
His warning is focused on the voters Paxton needs most—those who supported Cornyn earlier and now may stay home or look elsewhere. “Paxton is going to have to work really hard to make sure that those 30% of voters who voted for Senator Cornyn to. number one. show up and. number two. vote in the U.S. Senate race, as well as those other down-ballot races, and vote for Paxton. That’s going to take some humility on the General’s part. There are certain Republicans who right now are saying I don’t know if I can vote for A.G. Paxton.”.
The Cornyn-Paxton rift is now part of the campaign’s pressure test, even as both sides talk about keeping the Republican tent wide.
In a conversation with Patrick on his newly launched podcast called “Lt. Dan,” Paxton said he hopes to get together with Cornyn. “If it’s up to me, we will. You have to have both parties willing,” Paxton said. “I don’t know what John is going to decide. I haven’t heard back from him. I’d be happy to talk to him. I’d love to have his help and support.”.
Cornyn has not endorsed Paxton individually, but he has repeatedly said he supports the Republican ticket. Williams said he doubts Cornyn will back Paxton with a full endorsement.
“That full-throated endorsement is not coming. so. at this point. I think it’s less about what the Senator does and more about what the AG does. ” Williams said. “The AG has to go back and rally Cornyn voters. He has to speak directly to traditional conservatives, maybe I should call them the Bushites. He has to talk to that part of the party that built this party and make sure they’re on board going forward.”.
The race is also escalating in dollars and messaging.
Ad Impact Politics estimates political ad spending in Texas this year will total $850 million overall, nearly $290 million higher than originally thought last year. In the Senate race alone, Ad Impact Politics predicts $446 million will be spent.
Talarico began airing a new ad in many Texas media markets last week, including the DFW market. The ad is called “Drowning” and focuses on lowering costs. Paxton released his own ad called “Hypocrite,” focusing on Talarico’s record. It aired in the Corpus Christi market, where Texas Democrats held their party convention, which wrapped up Saturday.
With independent polls showing a tight spread and Republicans looking to repair internal lines fast, the campaign’s central question is no longer just who has the better message. It’s whether the coalition that powered past Republican wins can stay intact when the margin is this thin.
Texas Senate race Ken Paxton James Talarico Donald Trump Dan Patrick John Cornyn Lt. Dan podcast American Airlines Center Dallas RNC midterm convention Michael Williams political ads Drowning Hypocrite