Schmigadoon! will – Cinco Paul’s “Schmigadoon!” is positioned to win Best Musical at the 79th Tony Awards, with the voting bloc of out-of-town presenters acting as the swing factor—while “The Lost Boys” and “Two Strangers (Who Carry a Cake Across New York)” fight for a different
When the lights come up for the 79th Tony Awards, one vote-heavy detail may end up mattering more than any red-carpet storyline: hundreds of out-of-town presenters.
That’s the group driving the Best Musical outcome. and it’s exactly why “Schmigadoon!”—Cinco Paul’s send-up of classic musicals—has the clearest path to the big prize. The argument isn’t about whether the show is daring. It’s about whether presenters will feel confident selling it to subscriber audiences from Boston to Los Angeles. the kind of wide middle-market theaters that rely on reliable ticket flow. The show’s original TV version first appeared on Apple TV in 2021. and this spring it’s poised to cash in on that familiarity at the theater awards’ biggest moment.
“The Lost Boys” has a shot, but the practical reality of touring hangs over the production. The musical’s stage picture depends on showy spectacle. including all those elevators that carry actors and the gargantuan sets that travel up and down the Palace Theatre’s stage. For out-of-town presenters. that kind of engineering is a barrier; the source’s critique doesn’t mince words about what the tour version would have to risk—whether actors could be crushed by a descending living room. or more likely fall into an elevator shaft.
“Two Strangers (Who Carry a Cake Across New York)” steps into a different lane: it’s framed as a better Best Musical choice both artistically and commercially. Unlike “Schmigadoon!” and “The Lost Boys,” which have TV or movie pedigree, “Two Strangers” needs name recognition to tour. Its format also makes the economics friendlier—it’s a two-hander, meaning it can be produced more cheaply. That, the argument goes, makes it a natural fit for theaters beyond the Hudson River.
The Best Musical decision is only one part of a broader slate of predictions. and the same voting mechanics and tastes ripple through multiple categories. Cinco Paul is also positioned for wins in Best Score and Book of a Musical. with the score and book candidates specifically named: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan’s score for “Two Strangers. ” and the book for “Titanique. ” written by Marla Mindelle. Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue.
As the Tony conversation turns to playwriting. Bess Wohl’s “Liberation” is cited as already carrying enormous momentum: the 2026 Pulitzer Prize went to “Liberation. ” and that may be enough to secure the Tony for Best Play. The streak matters, too. The top honor hasn’t gone to a female playwright since 2009. when Yasmina Rez won for “God of Carnage.” And the Tonys haven’t awarded an American female playwright since 1989. when Wendy Wasserstein won for “The Heidi Chronicles.” Wohl. the source insists. wrote the Broadway season’s best new play.
Whitney White, who directed “Liberation,” is expected to win Best Director of a Play. The likely winner instead is Joe Mantello for “Death of a Salesman. ” and the reasoning includes his advantage of also directing Samuel D. Hunter’s “Little Bear Ridge Road,” nominated for Best Play. Directors of revivals tend to win over directors of new works. the source says. even as it’s less obvious what directors do with something original like “Liberation” or “Ridge Road” than when they put a familiar classic back into the spotlight. “Death of a Salesman” is described through its stark transformation into Willy Loman’s red Chevy. “Cats” is referenced as now taking place in an uptown ballroom where drag artists compete.
That comparison becomes sharper in the musical directing race. Best Director of a Musical is expected to go to Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch for their colorful overhaul of “Cats. ” now given a subtitle. “The Jellicle Ball.” The drag concept is called very interesting—for about 15 minutes. The award. the source argues. should go to Sam Pinkleton for his creepy-fun revival of “The Rocky Horror Show. ” but he won in 2025 for directing the comedy “Oh. Mary!” and the Tonys forgot to nominate him this year.
Revival categories look like close calls. Best Revival of a Musical is framed as a photo finish between “Cats” and “Ragtime,” with “Rocky Horror” more deserving. Yet those same out-of-town presenters could tip the contest toward “Ragtime. ” since the new LGBTQ+ “Cats” is described as a bit too much for their conservative subscribers.
In Best Revival of a Play. “Death of Salesman” is said to look likely. but the source doesn’t expect certainty. The far superior revival of Gina Gionfriddo’s “Becky Shaw” could take the Tony instead. especially because Tony voters in the recent past have used this award to honor living playwrights—allowing the artists to accept in person. The source lists past winners who are identified as living playwrights at the time: Tony Kushner (“Angels in America.
” 2018). Mart Crowley (“The Boys in the Band. ” 2019). Charles Fuller (“A Soldier’s Play. ” 2020-21). Richard Greenberg (“Take Me Out. ” 2022). Suzan-Lori Parks (“Top Dog/Under Dog”. 2023). Branden Jacobs-Jenkins (“Appropriate. ” 2024) and Jonathan Spector (“Eureka Day. ” 2025). The source adds that Tony voters had to go back to 2017 for a deceased playwright—August Wilson for “Jitney.” Another advantage cited for “Becky Shaw” is its producing entity. Second Stage. while
the lead producer of “Salesman” is identified as the controversial Scott Rudin. who returned to Broadway this season after an extended sabbatical.
In the acting races, Joshua Henry (“Ragtime”) is expected to win Best Actor in a Musical. Many theatergoers and critics love his big performance. but the source’s view is sharper: Henry represents how musical theater has turned into another episode of “American Idol. ” where singers hold on to high notes and beg the audience for applause mid-song. throwing the music out of whack and damaging performance integrity. The source says it goes to musicals to hear people sing, not to hear people applaud.
Still, the source’s preferred winner in the same category is different: Sam Tutty for “Two Strangers.” When he opened in the show last autumn, a star was born.
Best Actress in a Musical is described as one of the weakest groups in decades. and blame lands on the Tony nominating committee for missing bigger picks: Kristin Chenoweth for “The Queen of Versailles” and Lea Michele for “Chess.” Caissie Levy is said to have a good shot. but the source found the entire “Ragtime” revival loud. ponderous and pretentious. With a need for a comic anecdote. the source’s vote goes to Marla Mindell for her Celine Dion send-up in “Titanique. ” which is said to have rocked the St. James after doing the same for almost a decade at downtown theaters.
Lesley Manville is expected to be honored for “Oedipus,” described as a Real Prestige Project. The source says the Brits haven’t had this obvious pick since Simon Russell Beale won for “The Lehman Trilogy” four years ago. But the New York theater community. the source suggests. won’t give the award to one of their own; the source’s pick is Susannah Flood for “Liberation.”.
In plays. John Lithgow is expected to be picked Best Actor in a Play for “Giant.” The source argues that Alden Ehrenreich for “Becky Shaw” and Ruben Santiago-Hudson for “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone” are even more wonderful. noting that both ended up in the Feature Actor category despite their lead roles.
Those featured categories bring more specific expectations and preferences. Ehrenreich is expected to win Best Featured in a Play, and the source says he deserves to, as does Santiago-Hudson.
Sentiment, the source says, will rule in Best Featured Actor in a Musical and Best Featured Actress in a Play. The awards are predicted to go to 80-year-old Andre De Shields for “Cats” and 96-year-old June Squibb for “Marjorie Prime.” Still. the source insists the awards should go to Layton Williams for “Titanique” and Betsy Aidem for “Liberation. ” who are credited with one of the season’s great double-cast performances.
For Best Featured Actress in a Musical. Rachel Dratch in “The Rocky Horror Show” is said to deserve the win for her witty crossdressing turn as the Narrator in this musical revival. The source adds that this is Dratch’s second Tony nomination. while Shoshana Bean has three nominations and will probably win for her generic mother in “The Lost Boys.”.
The Tony Awards will be telecast by CBS.
79th Tony Awards Best Musical Schmigadoon! Cinco Paul The Lost Boys Two Strangers (Who Carry a Cake Across New York) Liberation Bess Wohl Whitney White Joe Mantello Cats The Jellicle Ball Ragtime Becky Shaw Death of a Salesman Joshua Henry Sam Tutty Marla Mindell Titanique Oedipus Susannah Flood CBS telecasts
So basically out-of-town people pick the musical? That seems rigged lol.
I didn’t even know presenters were like, hundreds of voters. Thought it was critics. If Schmigadoon! is on Apple TV, that’s kind of unfair advantage??
Schmigadoon is gonna win because it’s “familiar” from TV, right? So then Lost Boys is just doomed because it’s not on the right app? Seems like they should vote on stage, not who watched it.
When they say “swing factor,” I immediately think drama backstage like someone forgot a ballot. Also “two strangers” sounds like a love story, but it’s apparently a musical? Idk I’m just hoping the one with the catchiest songs wins because the rest is always politics.