Abdul El-Sayed’s confidence is colliding with anxiety inside Michigan Democrats and, increasingly, outside them. In the Aug. 4 primary for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat, the GOP’s National Republican Senatorial Committee is running digital ads designed to make E
For weeks. Abdul El-Sayed has been selling something close to a dare: win the Democratic primary in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, and then defeat Republican Mike Rogers in November. In a 45-minute interview last week. El-Sayed didn’t sound worried about the usual question progressives face—whether voters will consider them too far left to handle a general election.
“He generally has the charisma of a doorknob,” El-Sayed told HuffPost. He added. “He carries all the MAGA baggage. but he also has the aesthetic of the guy at a country club who sneers at you from his Lincoln. He’s not really hard to beat.” He went further, leaning on Rogers’ post-Congress life in Florida. “By the time I’m done with him. his golf buddies down in Florida are going to be calling him the names I call him. ” El-Sayed said. He ended with a personal flourish—“I hope that 20 years from now, he still thinks of me.”.
But that swagger isn’t shared by everyone trying to protect Democrats’ Senate map. Party leaders in Washington and in Michigan fear El-Sayed’s progressive agenda could cost them support from moderate voters—ultimately handing the seat to Rogers and the GOP. The anxiety has a clear timeline. The Senate seat has been in Democratic hands since 1978. and the Democrats’ “relatively narrow path to winning the Senate essentially evaporates if Rogers wins in Michigan.”.
El-Sayed’s supporters point to momentum. They say he’s led the last seven publicly released polls of the race. The case against him. pushed by establishment-aligned Democrats. leans on electability—an argument that has derailed progressive candidacies before they even begin. Before this cycle. the last time a progressive candidate defeated the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s pick in a primary was in 2010.
The clash is playing out inside a Democratic electorate that still tends to care more about electability than Republicans do. Even so. both progressive and moderate party strategists quoted in the race say primary voters no longer trust party leaders’ judgment about who can win—especially after establishment candidates lost to President Donald Trump in 2016. narrowly beat him in 2020. and lost again in 2024.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) summed up that frustration during a campaign stop for El-Sayed last month. “The last people who have any right to lecture us about electability are the establishment who lost to Donald Trump twice. ” Khanna said. “If you were part of those campaigns, please sit down or exit stage left.”.
For El-Sayed’s rivals, the preferred counterargument is simple: the party should nominate someone whose appeal extends beyond the left. Party leaders, meanwhile, have focused their pitch on establishment-oriented Rep. Haley Stevens, arguing she’s the most electable option in the Aug. 4 primary.
El-Sayed’s rise has complicated that message. In early surveys in the race, Stevens performed significantly better than El-Sayed against Rogers, according to the reporting here. But “several recent polls have shown El-Sayed doing better or performing equally well.” Without newer polling to back up their claims. Stevens and her allies have shifted to a different kind of case—what sort of campaign she would run and how she might relieve swing voters’ concerns about the party being too liberal.
El-Sayed’s campaign dismisses that framing as outdated. “Haley Stevens is not Elissa Slotkin. and the world has changed. ” he said. referencing the moderate Democrat who defeated Rogers in 2024. narrowly outperforming Kamala Harris. who lost the state to Trump. El-Sayed said. “We’ve only run one play. and it barely worked.” He argued centrists have won in Michigan “because they are the only candidates who have been given a chance.” Then he offered a direct alternative: “The answer is either that’s the only play that can work. which seems to be everybody’s conclusion. or there’s another play that could work better. I’m running the other play. I think it’ll work better.”.
Those internal battles have also spilled into the outside political fight. If Democrats are worried El-Sayed is too risky, Republicans are acting like they’re eager to find out. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has begun running digital ads that attack El-Sayed in ways designed to make him sound more appealing to Democratic primary voters by making him easier to dismiss.
The 30-second ad opens with a clip of El-Sayed promising to back the abolishment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The narrator then links El-Sayed to two figures popular with progressives: “Abdul campaigned with anti-Israel. radical Hasan Piker. ” the narrator says. The ad continues: “He called to abolish private health insurance, and he’s championing socialist tax hikes with Sen. Bernie Sanders.”.
The NRSC and Rogers’ campaign did not respond to requests for comment. But Stevens’ camp read the ad as confirmation that Republicans believe El-Sayed is politically vulnerable.
“There are two candidates in this race rooting for Abdul El-Sayed to win the primary: Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. ” said Arik Wolk. a spokesperson for Stevens’ campaign. “That’s why Republicans are spending money to boost Abdul and Republican senators admitted: Abdul ‘makes it even better’ for them to win in Michigan.”.
Another pro-Stevens consultant was even sharper, speaking on condition of anonymity. “As much as Democrats hate AIPAC right now. they hate Republicans more. ” the consultant said. referring to the pro-Israel lobbying group that progressives often view as a central power player. The consultant also said that affiliated super PACs are spending millions to attack El-Sayed and back the congresswoman.
For some Michigan Democrats. there’s also a more granular worry taking shape: El-Sayed’s electability concerns may be driving lingering support away from him and toward a third option trying to split the difference between El-Sayed and Stevens. Operatives in both parties working in Michigan said it was clear that at least some Democratic primary voters have concerns about El-Sayed’s electability. Some of those voters have pointed to state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. who has tried to position herself between the two leading camps and has faded to third in recent polling.
El-Sayed downplayed the GOP-backed ad’s importance. portraying it as a sign of Republican panic rather than a verdict on his candidacy. “I think they’re trying to get ahead of things because it’s a short campaign after the primary. and they see me coming. ” he said. “If their intention really is to boost me. I’m gonna make them rue the day whatever dumbass consultant came up with that idea.”.
At the same time, his campaign appears to be taking electability seriously in its own way—by changing the way it reaches voters. His schedule is sending him through counties full of voters who flipped from backing former President Barack Obama to Trump.
He also launched his first ad of the campaign with a patriotic visual strategy: it features no fewer than 17 shots of the American flag and ends with a Sanders moment meant to calm voters’ concerns about identity. Sanders jokesly reassures voters who may worry about whether Michigan would elect a Muslim: “Don’t worry about his name.”.
One recurring problem in this cycle is that electability pitches from establishment-aligned candidates haven’t always been backed by polling. The reporting here points to examples: Joe Biden famously went months without ever trailing Trump in a poll. while Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) performed less consistently in surveys. Gov. Janet Mills’ attempt to argue that progressive oysterman Graham Platner’s scandals would render him unable to beat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also failed in part because Platner consistently outperformed Collins in head-to-head matchups in public surveys.
Stevens. according to the reporting. is now facing a similar challenge—having less polling support than her campaign needs. and leaning harder on the mechanics of how she would run. Stevens’ allies argue she has a track record of relieving swing voters’ concerns about the party being too liberal. She flipped a Republican-leaning seat in the 2018 midterm elections.
El-Sayed calls that approach hogwash too.
He said his strategy will balance trying to win over voters who backed Trump with turning out Democratic voters who might otherwise stay home, rather than simply copying the narrow focus of some progressive efforts that emphasized driving up turnout.
His argument centers on the role of money in politics—“rigging the system against us”—and the cost voters feel directly. “It’s why you pay more for what you buy but get less for the work you do,” El-Sayed said. He tied it to government spending. saying. “And watch as your tax dollars get misappropriated to do dumb things like drop bombs on other people instead of investing in you and your kids.”.
Even some Democrats who don’t necessarily share all of El-Sayed’s politics agree that the old electability model may no longer fit. Andrew Bates, a spokesperson for Biden’s 2020 campaign, offered a view that tries to split the difference between caution and imagination.
“It’s not a binary choice between overcautious. under-imaginative old guard types on the one hand. and folks who seem to think that any society could exist without law enforcement and borders on the other. ” Bates said. “The people who win majority-making races create their own big tent that’s both true to themselves and fits their community; they don’t force themselves into a prepackaged box.”.
In Michigan, the primary isn’t just deciding who represents a wing of the Democratic Party. It’s deciding whether Democrats can keep the seat they’ve held since 1978—or whether Republicans. with their targeted ads and their clear interest in the outcome. will get the matchup they’ve been pressing for.
Michigan Senate primary Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers Haley Stevens NRSC Medicare for All abolish ICE Israel aid AIPAC Bernie Sanders Mallory McMorrow
So the GOP is advertising against him already? Sounds like they’re scared.
Wait I thought El-Sayed was the progressive one, but now I’m hearing anxiety inside Democrats?? Like… are they mad at him or just assuming he can’t win? Also “doorknob charisma” is such a random insult lol
Idk what any of this means tbh. If Mike Rogers is in Florida now, doesn’t that automatically make him bad? Like golf buddies calling him names?? Seems made up to me. Democrats always talk big then lose
This reads like a preview of a loss. GOP ads trying to “make E for weeks”?? that part is cut off so maybe it’s just nonsense. But anyway, if progressives are “too far left” then how is he not worried? Feels like he’s confident because he thinks everyone will ignore the baggage part.