U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico promise to serve all in El Paso
U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico discusses key public issues in Texas during the first stop of his Frontera Tour July 11, 2026 in El Paso.
- The Cook Political Report and Fox News have both moved the Texas U.S. Senate race to a toss-up.
- Recent polling shows a statistical tie between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico for the Senate seat.
- The Cook Political Report also shifted the Texas governor’s race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
The Cook Political Report and Fox News both moved the U.S. Senate race in Texas to a toss-up, signaling growing Republican concerns about the fight to replace Sen. John Cornyn.
The Aug. 20 report follows recent August polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton as statistically tied within the polls’ margin of error.
In addition to the Senate shift, the Cook report also shifted its rating on the Texas governor’s race toward Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa as she challenges Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term.
Here’s a look at what is being said about the latest developments in the Texas Senate and gubernatorial races.
Cook Political Report, Fox News name Texas Senate race a toss-up
The Texas Senate race is drawing attention as a Democrat could defeat a Republican for a long-time Republican-controlled seat.
Cornyn, who lost the May Republican primary runoff to Paxton, has held that seat for more than two decades. However, recent August polling shows Democrats are making ground on Republicans — still within the poll’s margin of error — but with Talarico having a slight edge over Paxton.
“While Talarico remains right-side up in his favorables — at least so far — the deeply flawed Paxton is underwater by as much as double digits in some surveys and is notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling. In addition to a bevy of public polls, private Republican polling has had the race tied for some time,” the report said.
The report also noted that while Paxton comes with his own baggage to the race, Talarico is not without his own, noting the Democrat’s comments that “God is non-binary” and that there are multiple genders Republicans have used against him.
It also notes that the race can swing back to Republicans once millions of dollars of attack ads are aired against Talarico.
“But there may not be much to do to improve Paxton’s fortunes other than to make him the lesser of two evils for partisan voters. That could be enough to save him narrowly, but at this juncture we have to call Texas a Toss Up,” the report said.
Earlier in the week, on Aug. 18, Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom” moved its label of the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
Karl Rove, former deputy White House chief of staff under President George W. Bush, told the program’s hosts that Texas is a true toss-up, citing Paxton’s campaign’s minimal war chest and limited campaign appearances, unlike Talarico.
“So this is going to depend mightily upon the decision of President Trump to spend or not spend the half a billion plus dollars that he has in his two super PACs,” Rove said. “If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up. If he doesn’t spend, this could be a really bad night for Republicans.”
A Fox News poll released July 30 showed Talarico at 51% to Paxton’s 48%, within the poll’s margin of error and a statistical tie.
Abbott-Hinojosa Texas governor race grows more competitive, Cook says
While recent August polling shows Democrat Hinojosa closing the gap with Republican Gov. Abbott to a one-point difference, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” for several reasons.
Recently, Hinojosa launched an attack ad on Abbott accepting money from data centers. The report also said Hinojosa has a unique appeal that can draw in Latino voters because of her Rio Grande Valley roots.
But Abbott’s campaign has a $67 million war chest, 20 times hers, and even though he has to navigate fallout from Paxton’s Senate race, the report said Hinojosa still needs to raise more money to stay truly competitive until November.
“Abbott will have to use his gargantuan cash advantage to put together a turnout operation that not only helps his own campaign but buoys the entire red team — including legislative and congressional candidates — with him running strong atop the ticket. The fundamentals still favor Abbott, but this is now a race to watch,” the report said.