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Talarico leads Paxton with independent voters

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A new Fox News poll shows Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate.

The poll, released Thursday, July 30, found Talarico leading with 51% support compared with Paxton’s 48%. The 3-point difference falls within the survey’s margin of sampling error, the poll noted.

Talarico has the support of 98% of Democrats and 68% of independents, while 89% of Republicans back Paxton, according to Fox News.

The poll also found that 24% of non-MAGA Republicans support Talarico.

Paxton performed best among white evangelical Christians, rural voters, regular worshippers, men, voters ages 65 and older, and white men without a college degree. Talarico drew his strongest support from Black and Hispanic voters, moderates, women, college graduates and voters younger than 30.

The poll was conducted July 23-27 with a sample of 1,006 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

“Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. “He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”

The Fox News poll comes a few days after the Texas Public Opinion Research released its own poll Tuesday, July 28, showing Talarico with a 5-point lead over Paxton.

The poll was conducted from July 15-17, polling 1,048 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. 

Natassia Paloma may be reached at npaloma@gannett.com, @NatassiaPaloma on X, natassia_paloma on Instagram, and Natassia Paloma on Facebook.

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