A new Fox News poll released this week gives Sen. Susan Collins a narrow lead over challenger Graham Platner in Maine’s crucial Senate race, overturning earlier polling that had Platner ahead by as much as 9 points. The poll also shows Platner trailing Democra
For weeks, Maine’s Senate race has felt like it was leaning toward change—until a new poll landed and made the race look, briefly, like the incumbent might keep her seat.
Fox News released a new poll this week covering both Maine’s Senate contest and the gubernatorial race. and it’s the first major survey to show Sen. Susan Collins besting progressive challenger Graham Platner. The shift matters because polling in May had Platner up by anywhere between 7 and 9 points. and the race only tightened further in late June when a New York Times/Siena poll showed Platner up by just two.
This Fox poll is the first major one to put Collins in front. Anchor Dana Perino introduced it on air Wednesday with a framing that sounded like a warning to Democrats: control of the Senate “hang[ing] in the balance. ” and the Maine contest being seen as “a must-win” if Democrats are trying to flip the chamber. Perino then zeroed in on the new numbers—Collins up narrowly among all voters. while Platner leads among “the extremely motivated.”.
Reince Priebus. the former RNC chair appearing as a political analyst. pushed back on the idea that one snapshot could settle a Senate race in a way that would help the campaign plan too early. He pointed out that the comparison matters: Collins’s last victory came in an election with “extremely high turnout” and she won by nine points in 2020. But. Priebus said. “this is not a midterm. ” and the context changes because it’s a “presidential year vote.” For the practical question campaigns are asking. Priebus argued that what matters most is how voters turn out in a midterm—what he called “midterm turnout surgery.”.
In his view, Collins’s path runs through persuasion and contrast. She needs to “turn this into a question of Graham Platner. ” drive Platner’s negatives higher. and spend money emphasizing her own “personality.” Priebus also said Collins will need to identify the people who vote in Maine in a midterm election.
The discussion then sharpened on where support is coming from. Priebus said he found it notable that Collins’s vote in rural Maine was “way up. ” and that among people who don’t have a college degree. her numbers were also “way up.” That. he argued. undermines a campaign narrative Platner has used—one that frames his support as rooted in “working-class. rural Maine.” Instead. Priebus said the pattern suggests Platner’s base is “a rich. super-educated. non-religiously affiliated liberal.” And in his reading. the fact that Collins is ahead even in an “all-registered vote” is “pretty good news.”.
The poll also tested another theme that could become more prominent as campaigns adjust: judgment. Perino highlighted a data point showing 54% saying Platner lacks the judgment to serve, while 53% say Collins has “been in office too long.”
As the segment pivoted away from Maine, the poll’s other numbers stayed rooted there.
The Fox survey was conducted between June 23-27 among a sample of 1,003 Maine registered voters and has a 3-point margin of error.
It also offered a telling comparison across races. Platner was found to be running significantly behind Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Hannah Pingree. The poll showed Pingree leading her GOP rival by 11 points—meaning Platner was trailing her by 14 points.
On favorability, the poll showed a more direct mismatch between the candidates’ “feel” with voters. Platner had a higher net negative favorability rating than Collins, with 43% of voters viewing him favorably versus 53% viewing him unfavorably. Collins, by contrast, had a 47% to 50% split—placing her only three points underwater, compared with Platner’s 10-point gap.
None of it settles the race by itself. But the moment the poll appears—after months in which Platner led in May and was only narrowly ahead in late June—puts Collins back on the board, and forces the campaign calculus to change again before voters have even had their say.
Susan Collins Graham Platner Maine Senate race Fox News poll Dana Perino Reince Priebus Hannah Pingree gubernatorial election midterms favorability rural Maine