Study finds redshirting steadies, fades by third grade

A new NWEA report finds that “redshirting”—holding children back from kindergarten—has hovered around 5% since the 1990s and 2010s, reached 6.4% during the pandemic, and shows early reading and math gains that even out by third grade. Costs, not hype, shape ma

For parents staring at the kindergarten age cutoff, the question can feel heavier than paperwork. Do you send your child in as one of the youngest—or hold them back and try to buy them an academic edge?. In recent years. “redshirting” has moved from a niche term into something many families seem to talk about constantly. even if fewer actually do it.

A new report from NWEA puts numbers to the debate. The practice has hovered steady at around 5 percent since the 1990s and 2010s. During the pandemic, it climbed to 6.4 percent. “One of the reasons we wanted to look into it is because we felt like everyone talks about it. but only 1 in 20 students actually do it. ” says Megan Kuhfeld. director of modeling and data analytics at NWEA. an education research firm. “So why does it feel like everyone was considering it for their children?”.

Kuhfeld suggests that the loudest group of parents thinking about delaying their children may have gotten amplified attention on social media. But when families faced the real decision, other pressures often took over. “It might seem that this is a good idea but it’s. ‘We’re on the hook for an extra $15. 000 in child-care costs. ’ which may not be practical for a lot of families. ” Kuhfeld says. adding she expects redshirting to stay steady. “The types to consider it will likely continue to. but a lot of people consider it then decide it’s not practical for a lot of reasons.”.

The NWEA study also finds redshirting is not evenly distributed. More young boys were likely to be kept back than girls. White students were more often delayed than nonwhite students. In the 2021 year. there were upticks in rural areas. jumping from 6.2 percent to 9 percent. and high poverty areas. jumping from 2.2 to 4.7 percent. Kuhfeld offers a possible explanation for the pattern: child care is sometimes more affordable in smaller towns. and it may be easier to arrange care through friends. family. or neighbors.

Supporters of redshirting argue it gives children a lasting academic and social advantage as older kindergartners. The NWEA report complicates that promise. Children initially saw higher reading and math scores, equating to about 20 percent to 30 percent of a year of learning. But by third grade, those results evened out, with the children who entered kindergarten early catching up. Likewise. children who started kindergarten later initially showed a large academic advantage in math and reading scores. but by third grades. those gaps were filled.

“People often focus on the short-term gains. but it’s important to keep in mind the perspective of what it means to be the older kid in class. where you turn 18 your junior year of high school. ” Kuhfeld says. “It’s just keeping in mind these longer term outcomes and making the best decision for your child.”.

That longer-term concern is echoed by the American Economic Association, which points to one strong reason not to redshirt: children who started kindergarten after 5 years old are more likely to drop out later on.

The redshirting debate is also starting to spill from personal choice into policy. Some states have moved toward what amounts to forced redshirting. North Carolina public schools shifted its age cut off in 2007, requiring students to be 5 years old or older on Aug. 31, upping the date from a previous mid-October cut off.

An associate professor of education at University of California, Irvine, Jade Jenkins, examined what that forced delay did. Her report found both pros and cons: it helped math and reading scores in third through fifth grades. and students with forced delays into kindergarten also had a 4 percent increase of being identified as academically gifted. But the same report found a 6 percent drop in disability identification.

Jenkins’ research also suggests the impact didn’t land evenly across student groups. It benefitted lower-income, white students but brought no benefit to Hispanic students. Jenkins writes. “Is the valuation of the academic benefits of delayed entry higher than the costs of the hold-out year and the public costs of increased racial-ethnic achievement gaps?. Future research can provide a more precise estimate of this calculation, but we find this unlikely.”.

In classrooms. the discussion is happening alongside a bigger shift in how early education is marketed and measured—less about readiness and more about performance. Kuhfeld points to the way competition begins long before a child ever steps into kindergarten. “Especially in high socio-economic status schools and districts. there’s already an arms race by preschool to get situated for college. which is where a lot of this comes from. ” she says. “There’s this attitude of. ‘We have to take every avenue to get ahead’ and I don’t think that is healthy.”.

For parents. the NWEA findings land like a reality check: redshirting may remain common enough to dominate conversations. but the outcomes it promises appear to fade quickly. The study’s numbers—steady use around 5 percent. a pandemic uptick to 6.4 percent. and early gains that level out by third grade—leave families with a tighter question than the one they started with. Not just whether to wait. but what they’re truly buying with that extra year. and what it costs when the calendar moves forward.

redshirting kindergarten entry age cutoff NWEA early childhood education child care costs third grade outcomes academic gifted identification disability identification North Carolina age cut off 2007 Jade Jenkins University of California Irvine American Economic Association