Super El Niño threatens US grocery prices this summer

A powerful “super El Niño” is forecast to strengthen this year, raising the odds of drought and flooding across major food-exporting regions. With the US already facing grocery inflation of 2.9% and food prices projected to rise about 3.4% in 2026, experts war

When the first reports of a strengthening “super El Niño” started circulating, the discussion wasn’t about weather forecasts for sightseeing. It was about what happens to grocery shelves when climate swings hit multiple harvest regions at once.

This year’s forecast points to a powerful El Niño pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean—strong enough to disrupt global weather systems and strain international food supply chains. While “super El Niño” isn’t an official scientific category. forecasters use the term when conditions in the Pacific are unusually strong and persistent. Experts say the knock-on effects can range from reduced crop yields abroad to higher grocery prices for consumers.

The risk lands harder in the United States because the country relies heavily on foreign imports for its food and beverage supply. especially fresh fruits and vegetables. Even before any climate disruptions. inflation has already set the tone: grocery inflation is tracking at 2.9%. and overall food prices are projected to rise by roughly 3.4% in 2026. Analysts warn that a severe El Niño could intensify those pressures if extreme weather compromises harvests or bottlenecks exports in major producing nations.

The climate mechanism behind the threat is rooted in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Under normal conditions, trade winds blow west along the equator, moving warm water from South America toward Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths through a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are opposing patterns that disrupt these normal conditions. During El Niño. the trade winds weaken. warm water shifts eastward. and rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation change across the globe. What makes a “super” event is the scale of warming and the persistence of atmospheric disruption: weak events are typically below +1.0°C above average sea surface temperatures. while very strong El Niño conditions can exceed +2.0°C—at which point impacts spread farther and become more severe.

Right now. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is estimating an 82 percent chance of El Niño development between May and July. with a 96 percent chance it will persist through the winter. NOAA also reported that “the equatorial subsurface temperature index…increased for the sixth consecutive month. ” pointing to “widespread. significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific.”.

Because El Niño alters rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple continents at once, agricultural impacts rarely stay contained to a single region. Too much dryness or too much wet weather can lead to drought and flood risks—damage that can follow through farming into the supply chain.

USDA data shows that about 15 to 17 percent of U.S. food and beverage consumption comes from imports. The leading U.S. agricultural imports are processed food and beverages, along with tropical products. Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and China are among the top trade partners.

Several key categories are drawing close attention.

David Warrick. senior vice president of strategy at Overhaul and former head of Microsoft’s Global Supply Chain. said that among imported products at risk. “rice is the most immediate concern. ” naming Thailand. Vietnam. and India as key exporters vulnerable to drought conditions tied to El Niño. After rice. Warrick flagged coffee. cocoa. palm oil. and sugar—tropical commodities he described as highly sensitive to El Niño-driven heat and drought. For American consumers. he said. that could translate to pressure on everyday grocery staples like cooking oils. chocolate. packaged foods. coffee.

Warrick also warned that when multiple major exporters are hit at the same time, “import-dependent countries scramble, and prices spike fast.”

Wheat is another major concern, particularly shipments from Australia. Scott Lehmann. vice president of operational risk management at Sphera. told that Australian wheat is entering “a compromised planting season. ” with drought and fertilizer shortages expected to weigh on yields. Lehmann said rice remains especially vulnerable because multiple exporting countries may face weakened monsoon conditions simultaneously. “When multiple major exporters are simultaneously stressed, the usual compensating mechanisms are not available,” he said.

Even beyond crops, livestock systems can be affected. Heat stress in cattle can reduce feed intake and slow growth, and dairy production is particularly sensitive to temperature spikes—another pathway through which climate patterns can affect the food supply.

The question many consumers will ask is whether a super El Niño can push prices sharply upward.

Dr. Andrew Coburn. founder and chairman of Risilience and chief scientist at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at Judge Business School. said climate-driven disruptions can hit crops and livestock at the same time. He warned that drought and heat stress can reduce yields, lower milk production, and damage food systems in multiple ways. In extreme scenarios. he said. “price shocks of 10 percent to 50 percent across core commodities” are possible. with some crops potentially seeing even larger increases. He also emphasized that “In the past. price shocks struck one commodity at a time. ” while a simultaneous cross-category surge would hit consumers more broadly.

Coburn added that because demand for basic staples is inelastic—people must eat regardless of cost—small supply deficits can trigger disproportionate price surges. Warrick pointed to a timeline in which an El Niño development extending through the summer could produce significant retail price increases within three to six months. He said that timing accelerates for perishable goods with tight cold chain requirements. while shelf-stable staples may feel the impact later as importers use longer lead times to hedge against volatility.

“The underlying lesson is that by the time consumers see it at the checkout, the supply chain has been absorbing that pressure for months,” Warrick said.

Lehmann agreed that this pricing lag is real, but said the current economic environment may be compressing the traditional timeline. “In a normal cycle. weather-related disruptions take two to three quarters to transmit into retail prices. ” he said. adding that elevated fertilizer costs. freight rates. and lean inventory stocks are already shaping how quickly shocks can reach consumers.

“Simultaneous shortfalls in wheat, rice, and oilseeds against constrained fertilizer supply and elevated logistics costs is a different order of pressure,” Lehmann said, adding that it makes it significantly less likely the food system absorbs the shock before it reaches consumers.

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