Even with the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran described as stuck, U.S. forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the past two months. That heightened movement is occurring alongside repeated U.S. shootdowns of I
The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran may be at a standstill, but the Strait of Hormuz is proving something harder to ignore: traffic hasn’t simply “paused” in the way many feared.
In the last two months—roughly the same stretch that the ceasefire has been in place—U.S. forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessels going in and out of the strait. Most of them were large cargo and container ships, according to figures shared by sources with Bloomberg.
That tally works out to about 17 ships per day. It remains far below the daily rate of more than 100 ships before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran on Feb. 28, but it is also significantly more than other reporting had suggested.
Other counts show the gap. U.S. Navy data published by the Joint Maritime Information Center tallied 558 cargo ships and oil tankers crossing the strait during the three-month period from March 1 to June 3. A maritime data company, Kpler, counted 895 ships between March 1 and May 19.
The higher figure likely reflects how ships are changing their behavior to reduce visibility. The estimate presumably includes vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification Systems. which broadcast their positions. as well as ships using both the Iran-sanctioned route and the alternate route along Oman’s coast.
Iran’s control is rooted in how the waterway was reorganized early in the conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps established its lane soon after the war started, charging tolls on ships granted permission and attacking any vessel that tried to cross unauthorized.
To reduce the threat near the IRGC-controlled corridor, the U.S. Navy began mine-clearing operations in April and sent two destroyers through the strait to re-establish freedom of navigation near Oman’s coast. That effort was followed by Project Freedom last month, aimed at getting more ships out with U.S. help, but it ended after only a few days.
Still, the U.S. military managed to carve out what has been described as an Omani lane and has been quietly aiding ships get through the strait while they travel “dark.” Over a recent three-week span. U.S. Central Command guided about 70 ships in and out of the Persian Gulf. sources told the New York Times late last month. Central Command has insisted it’s not escorting ships. saying instead that it is offering advice to commercial vessels in the region.
The guidance matters because the threat isn’t theoretical. The U.S. military keeps an eye on traffic with radar, drones and other tools to help ships transit safely, while also advising them on when to turn off AIS and how to respond to Iranian threats, according to the Wall Street Journal.
For ship operators, the pressure is not only about risk—it’s also about timing. The alternate lane has become even more important as global oil markets are poised to head off a cliff in a matter of weeks, when crude reserves are expected to reach critically low levels.
Iran has treated the strait as leverage that cannot be surrendered. The Islamic Republic’s ability to stop Hormuz traffic has emerged as its key bargaining tool over the U.S. and the regime has not moved away from that strategy. turning the Persian Gulf into more of a combat zone even after the ceasefire began.
Last month, the IRGC launched attacks into the Gulf and attempted to lay new underwater mines. The U.S. responded by destroying Iranian boats and bombing missile sites in Iran that tried to shoot down U.S. aircraft.
On last weekend’s reports of escalating incidents, the U.S. disabled a ship attempting to breach its naval blockade by firing a missile into the engine room. Also last weekend, U.S. forces conducted “self-defense strikes” in Goruk, Iran, and Qeshm Island.
After Iran shot down a U.S. drone, fighter aircraft destroyed Iranian air defenses, a ground control station, and two attack drones that threatened ships in transit, Central Command said.
Then, on Friday, Central Command said U.S. forces shot down Iranian missiles and drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors. while again hinting at its protective role over commercial ships. In a statement. Central Command said: “The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic.” It added that U.S. forces subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further maritime attacks.
Central Command announced Saturday evening in the U.S. (early Sunday in the Mideast) that two more Iranian drones were downed.
Even with the threats continuing, ships are finding ways back into motion. Lloyd’s List reported on Wednesday that nearly 40 non-Iranian linked vessels have exited the Gulf in the past three weeks. bringing total departures of once-stranded ships since March to 142. The outlet attributed the steady wave of Hormuz transits to “quiet U.S. naval overwatch” and a growing willingness among ship operators to finally exit despite the risks.
The U.S. has also described encounters that show how quickly shipping decisions can change in real time. Shipowners told Bloomberg that Iranian fast boats approached a group of vessels transiting through the strait. but turned away after helicopters suddenly appeared. The report did not identify the helicopters. and Central Command declined to comment when asked if they were from the U.S. military.
As pressure grows on global energy supplies, the pattern may begin to harden into something routine. Christopher Smart. a former trade adviser and Treasury official in the Obama administration. wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Thursday that “it’s hard to imagine a world in which the Strait never reopens. ” but it is also difficult to imagine the world economy depending again on the region for 20% of its oil and gas needs. He added: “Desperate buyers always manage to find new sellers when the old ones can’t deliver. The longer the world lives without the Gulf’s supplies, the easier it gets.”.
The people working those routes are living inside that tension right now: fewer ships than before, more than some expected, and a chokepoint that stays dangerous even when diplomacy looks stalled.
Strait of Hormuz Iran drones U.S. Central Command shipping traffic AIS Oman lane IRGC Project Freedom Goruk Qeshm Island