U.S. stock futures held mostly steady as investors weighed signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks in Switzerland and waited for a pivotal Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report later this week. Oil prices swung with uncertainty around the Strai
US stock futures paused on Monday as investors tried to balance two forces: early signals of momentum in US-Iran peace talks, and a looming inflation test later this week.
Contracts on the S&P 500 hovered near flat, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures stayed similarly subdued. Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.2% as Wall Street prepared for a muted open after Friday’s holiday closure.
The mood in markets shifted slightly after mediators said the US and Iran made “encouraging progress” in peace talks in Switzerland. The two sides also agreed on a roadmap aimed at sealing a final deal within 60 days—an outcome that helped ease nerves tied to President Donald Trump’s threat of strikes on Iran if Tehran does not rein in Hezbollah’s actions against Israel.
Oil traded with that uncertainty. Brent crude futures fell 1% to below $80 a barrel. while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped slightly to trade near $76 a barrel. as traders weighed Trump’s warnings against the possibility that the deal progress could allow oil flows through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz to return to something closer to normal.
Investors are now turning their attention to Thursday’s inflation data: the May reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. Economists expect core PCE—excluding food and energy costs—to show a modest acceleration from April levels. The report is arriving at a tense moment for markets that are already debating whether interest rates will remain higher for longer after the Fed’s latest meeting shifted to a more hawkish tone.
This week’s data has become a key test for traders trying to judge whether price pressures are still stubborn enough to support a rate hike later this year.
Across the morning’s session, Asia leaned higher. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.8% after climbing almost 8% last week to all-time highs. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.6% after surging more than 11% last week on strong demand for semiconductor stocks. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.8%, while Chinese blue chips climbed 1.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%.
Oil and energy markets also reflected the tug-of-war around the talks. Brent climbed as much as 2.2% at the open to $82.30 a barrel. while WTI advanced above $78. after Trump threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel. The negotiating effort. held in Switzerland’s Bürgenstock. began inside a 60-day window. after Trump signed a memorandum of understanding last week that started the deescalation process.
Negotiations also had a rough start. Iranian media reported the Islamic Republic halted talks in Switzerland following Trump’s threat, though people familiar with the matter said they continued. Iran accused Israel of violating a truce in Lebanon.
Even as Tehran claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. millions of barrels of oil continued to flow through the waterway over the weekend. Other energy commodities moved too: benchmark European natural gas prices advanced as much as 3.9% on Monday. A fifth of global liquefied natural gas was exported through Hormuz prior to the start of the war in late February. according to figures cited in the market coverage. US gasoline futures climbed alongside diesel.
All of it fed into the same pressure point: traders need clarity on both the inflation timeline and the durability of diplomacy. With the Fed’s path in the balance and oil still sensitive to any wobble in the US-Iran negotiations. Monday’s calm—especially in the S&P 500 and Dow futures—looks less like certainty and more like investors holding their breath.
stock futures S&P 500 Nasdaq Dow futures US Iran peace talks Switzerland inflation personal consumption expenditures core PCE Federal Reserve oil prices Strait of Hormuz Brent crude West Texas Intermediate
So are we getting peace or strikes? Markets can’t decide lol.
PCE again?? feels like every week is “looming” inflation. I’m just trying to buy groceries and it’s not going down.
Wait they said “encouraging progress” and then oil drops? That doesn’t make sense to me, like if it’s progress shouldn’t gas be cheaper immediately? Maybe they’re talking about something else.
I saw Iran peace talks and thought the Strait of Hormuz would open like tomorrow… but then it says blockaded and oil is weird. Also Trump threat of strikes on Iran like that’s just background noise to stocks? I feel like the Fed is gonna mess everything up with higher rates anyway.