Steven Spielberg’s extraterrestrial thriller “Disclosure Day” is aiming for roughly $35 million in its North American opening and about $65 million in 73 offshore markets, even as its Rotten Tomatoes score has dipped from 90% to 85%. Analysts frame the launch
Steven Spielberg’s extraterrestrial thriller “Disclosure Day” is set to make its first big bid for summer box office momentum this weekend, with expectations of about $35 million in North America and around $65 million across 73 overseas markets.
If the Universal and Amblin release lands near those figures stateside. the $115M net production cost would put the film in position to debut at No. 1. But the buzz arriving at theaters carries a note of caution. The film’s review score on Rotten Tomatoes has eased from 90% down to 85% at the time of publication—still above Spielberg’s “War of the Worlds” (76%) and “A.I.” (76%). but slightly below “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” (91%) and “Minority Report” (89%).
Part of the question around “Disclosure Day” is whether audiences will embrace its different flavor of Spielberg sci-fi. Many are describing it as a throwback to 1970s thrillers like “The Parallax View. ” with no UFOs and no stomping metallic. laser-emitting creatures. Instead. the film leans on very attuned animals and on Emily Blunt. who plays a character acting like she’s psychic. The cast also includes Colin Firth. Josh O’Connor. Colman Domingo. Wyatt Russell. and Eve Hewson. and there are some cameos by aliens.
Spielberg’s commercial ceiling, at least historically, can depend on what kind of movie he’s making. His top domestic opening ever as a director is 2008’s “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. ” which posted a three-day cume of $100.1M and a five-day total of $151.9M. But for original titles—while the reporting includes “Jurassic World” and “Ready Player One” even though those were based on books—there’s often a ceiling at the box office. “Jurassic Park” opened in 1993 with a three-day/previews of $50.1M; “Minority Report. ” starring Tom Cruise. posted a three-day of $35.6M; and “A.I. ” a 2001 $100M feature production. opened to $29.3M.
Timing has helped Spielberg on occasion. “Ready Player One” posted a three-day of $41.7M and a four-day of $53.7M over Easter 2018. “Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull” opened over Memorial Day. “War of the Worlds” was a 2005 July 4th tentpole with a three-day stateside of $64.8M and a six-day total of $112.7M.
The other big driver is legs—how far a movie stretches after its debut. Spielberg films have often shown strong opening-to-final runs. with “Jurassic Park” posting an eight-times multiple and “Saving Private Ryan” at seven-times. But his original sci-fi tends to land around a 3x multiple. “Minority Report” and “War of the Worlds” are examples cited for that pattern. while “A.I.” is listed as a 2.7x multiple. with a final domestic total of $78.6M. In earlier theatrical runs. the reporting points to massive multiples for “Jaws” at close to 37x. “E.T.” at 30.4x. and “Close Encounters” at 25.5x.
For “Disclosure Day,” the targeting also comes with expectations about who shows up. The first choice for the film is said to be guys over 25. though the broader audience is described as being behind “Project Hail Mary. ” “Ready Player One. ” and “One Battle After Another.” Overseas comps in like-for-likes are also being watched: Warner Bros’ Paul Thomas Anderson multi-Oscar winner “One Battle After Another” is listed at $27M in a foreign bow with previews. while Denis Villeneuve’s “Arrival” in 2016 opened with previews to $26.4M. As a mature, sophisticated sci-fi movie, “Disclosure Day” is expected to play well in the UK, France, Germany, and Australia.
The competitive field could also matter even when the spotlight is on Spielberg. Paramount and Miramax’s “Scary Movie” is expected to decline 60% with about $21M in U.S./Canada after its $54.3M franchise-record opening. Its running stateside cume through Tuesday is $64M. The film won the day’s top spot in North America with $5.5M. edging Focus Features’ “Obsession. ” which did $5.1M in second.
Moviegoers are expected to keep returning for “Obsession,” the Barker-directed movie projected to post a fifth frame around $20M. The highest-grossing fifth weekend for a horror movie is said to be “Sixth Sense” at $22.8M. followed by “Paranormal Activity” at $21.1M. “Obsession” has a running domestic total of $161.2M, officially ahead of “Stars Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu,” at $158.3M.
Other weekend snapshots are in play as well. Amazon MGM Studios’ second weekend for “Masters of the Universe” and A24’s “Backrooms” third weekend are both projected to do about $12M apiece. “He-Man and friends” is listed with a running domestic cume of $34.7M, while “Backrooms” has reached $143M.
Elsewhere in theaters, Bleecker Street’s Adam Shankman-directed, RuPaul-starring comedy “Stop!. That!. Train!” is playing in 1,157 locations with an outlook in the low single digits. The film’s blurb describes two train stewardess BFFs—switching from a dull railway to the luxurious Glamazonian Express. During a massive storm. they are said to work with snooty first-class crew and President Gagwell (Ru-Paul) to prevent disaster in L.A. “Stop!. That!. Train!” has a Rotten Tomatoes score among critics of 92% fresh.
Jujubee, Ginger Minj, Latrice Royale, Brock Hayhoe, Paul Scheer, Joel McHale, and Sarah Michelle Gellar are also credited among the stars of the comedy.
Disclosure Day Steven Spielberg box office Rotten Tomatoes Universal Amblin Emily Blunt Colin Firth North America opening overseas markets Scary Movie Obsession Masters of the Universe Backrooms Stop! That! Train!