SpaceX IPO – Two days after going public, SpaceX surged to a $2.95 trillion market value—briefly surpassing Amazon and re-adjacent to Microsoft—while multiple analysts warned the valuation may be artificially inflated. The debate now hinges on whether AI-driven hype can ho
For a brief window on Tuesday morning, SpaceX looked untouchable.
With early market gains building on Monday’s advance, Elon Musk’s rocket-and-AI company posted a market cap of $2.95 trillion as of 10:05 a.m. ET. That number pushed it ahead of Amazon’s $2.66 trillion and just above Microsoft’s $2.93 trillion—before it slipped back below Microsoft again.
The pace didn’t just turn heads. It briefly moved SpaceX into the position of the fourth-largest company on Wall Street by market value, placing it ahead of Amazon and Microsoft in the rankings for a moment. It currently sits at fifth.
Above all of it sits a bigger leaderboard. Apple is the third-largest publicly traded company on Wall Street with a $4.4 trillion market cap. Alphabet follows at $4.5 trillion, while Nvidia leads at $5.1 trillion.
SpaceX’s momentum has been equally dramatic since it began trading. The company started trading midday Friday with a market cap of just under $1.8 trillion—an astonishing jump in days.
That speed is exactly what has set off alarms among some investors who believe the valuation isn’t matching the fundamentals.
Before and after the launch, warnings stacked up.
Prior to the IPO, Morningstar launched coverage of SpaceX. Analyst Nicolas Owens put a fair value estimate of the company at roughly $780 billion—less than half of the company’s target at the time. He wrote that investors would have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO and said the company “has been significantly overvalued.”.
Others reached different numbers but a similar conclusion. Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business known as the “dean of valuation,” said he believed SpaceX’s equity value was roughly $1.3 trillion—nearly half a trillion less than the company claimed.
Ed Elson. an analyst who also co-hosts the Prof G Markets podcast with entrepreneur Scott Galloway. took aim at the implied pricing. On his Substack. he wrote: “The stock is set to be priced at 107 times sales. which would make it one of the most expensive stocks in history.” He added: “It will be twice as valuable [as] Walmart while generating less revenue than Macy’s.”.
Even with that criticism, the early trading run followed a familiar pattern for Wall Street’s most hyped listings.
An IPO can surge in its first few days, especially when excitement is high and the timing lands near peak demand. Offerings are often scheduled to hit right when investors are most eager. And there may still be room for SpaceX to climb.
But gravity has its own schedule.
A recent study by Truist that examined 30 major IPOs found that all of them finished their first year with stock prices that were notably lower. The most successful company was down 20% after one year. The worst fell 90%. On average, the first-year drawdown was 55%.
The company’s story is drawing attention not only because of what it does, but because of what markets assume it can become.
SpaceX is tapping the same investor appetite that has powered the latest wave of AI-driven enthusiasm. The boost has also shown how tightly sentiment can move market value—so quickly that it can temporarily reorder Wall Street’s hierarchy.
Still, the tension right now isn’t just about hype. It’s about what comes next.
One of the most immediate flashpoints is an unusual lockup schedule for SpaceX workers.
Typically, employees face restrictions that bar them from selling their shares for 180 days. SpaceX will allow some insiders to sell up to 20% of their locked-up shares after the company reports earnings for the three months through June. If the stock is trading at least 30% above the IPO price at that time, they can sell another 10%.
From there, sales follow a rolling schedule: another 7% unlocks at the 70-, 90-, 105-, 120-, and 135-day post-IPO marks. After SpaceX files its second earnings report, another 28% can be sold. Whatever remains at the 180-day mark can be sold at will.
Those timelines matter because they create a built-in test of how much of the current valuation is anchored in demand versus how much can evaporate when supply increases.
And that’s where the market-cap leapfrog starts to look fragile.
Amazon isn’t likely to face the same level of volatility, barring a larger market meltdown. The company’s fundamentals are described as remaining strong and supported by current revenue and sales, rather than estimates of future income.
SpaceX, on the other hand, might be surpassing Wall Street’s biggest companies today—and could, in time, join them permanently. But this current game of market-cap leapfrog is likely to be short-lived once earnings come out and the lockups begin to expire.
SpaceX Elon Musk IPO market cap Amazon Microsoft valuation analysts Morningstar Nicolas Owens NYU Stern Aswath Damodaran Ed Elson lockup period employee shares Truist IPO study