With the 2026 All-Star Game still weeks away, Tuesday’s three-game Dodgers-Pirates series opener at PNC Park instead delivers a matchup built like an event: Paul Skenes, the reigning Cy Young winner, starts against Shohei Ohtani and a Dodgers club fresh off tw
At PNC Park on Tuesday. it won’t be the All-Star Game arriving early—it’ll be one of its most electric invitations. The reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is set to take the mound against reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani. with the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in town to open a three-game series.
The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with the game available on MLB.TV.
Skenes comes into the matchup with a 2.83 ERA. His run of recent results has been more complicated than the number suggests. He hasn’t recorded a win since May 12 against the Rockies.
The bigger worry for Skenes is not that he can’t get out of trouble—it’s that trouble has been cutting his outings shorter than fans are used to. He was unable to complete five innings for just the third time this season. Against the Astros. he allowed three runs on six hits before being pulled with two outs in the bottom of the fifth inning. Pittsburgh’s bullpen collapsed after that, and Houston won 11-9.
Even in that imperfect start, there were signs of the kind of velocity and command that can still flip a game. Skenes reached a career-high 109 pitches in that outing, but he only logged 62% strikes.
Skenes’ story adds another layer to the matchup. While he grew up in Southern California, he was actually a fan of the Angels rather than the Dodgers. Still, the numbers show he’s been able to find a rhythm against this Los Angeles lineup. In four starts against the Dodgers, Skenes has posted a 3-1 record with a 2.70 ERA and 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
The most intriguing battle within the series is the first one on the docket: when Skenes delivers the first pitch to Los Angeles’ leadoff hitter. Shohei Ohtani. The two have squared off 11 times. Ohtani has struck out six times, but he has also managed one home run in their first meeting on June 5, 2024.
Other Dodgers bats have also left their fingerprint on this matchup. Mookie Betts is 0-for-9 off Skenes, and Freddie Freeman has two hits in 12 at-bats.
There’s also the question of whether the streaky feel around Skenes is real—or just noise around an elite baseline. His 2.83 ERA is excellent. but it sits almost a full run higher than his ERA from either of his first two seasons—1.96 in 2024 and 1.97 in 2025. The advanced numbers tell a similar story with a different tone: Baseball Savant’s expected ERA is 2.30. which is lower than his expected ERA from his previous two seasons (2.50 in 2024 and 2.65 in 2025).
The profile gets even sharper when control and results are lined up. Skenes’ walk percentage is at a career low of 4.7%, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is at a career-low .241. In other words, the elite foundation is still there, even if the surface-level results don’t match his earliest-year dominance.
The numbers built from his expected statistics suggest his performance is still tracking in line with his first two campaigns, and Skenes—24 years old—shows few signs of slowing down his dominant pace as he reaches his 14th start of 2026.
And for the Dodgers, it’s a reminder that the opener won’t just be another start on the calendar. It’s Skenes delivering the first pitch to Ohtani. a matchup shaped by past at-bats. a bullpen-tested tension from his last uneven stretch. and a pitcher with both a slightly higher ERA than his early ceiling and a statistical case that the swing is still controlled.
Paul Skenes Shohei Ohtani Dodgers Pirates PNC Park 2026 All-Star Game Cy Young NL MVP MLB.TV expected ERA xwOBA