With the World Cup set to begin in a week, analysts and betting markets point to Spain, France, Argentina, England, Portugal and Brazil as the six teams most likely to win—yet the same story keeps repeating: at this tournament, even favorites can be knocked ou
When the World Cup begins, the distance between winning and going home won’t be measured in years—it’ll be measured in moments. Pressure will be at its peak, margins will be razor thin, and even a powerhouse can be knocked out long before anyone expects it.
A week before the tournament starts. six national teams are topping analysts’ lists and betting markets: Spain. France. Argentina. England. Portugal and Brazil. Only eight countries in history have ever won the trophy—meaning every favorite is carrying both the weight of expectation and the reality that history has a habit of surprising people.
Spain arrives as one of the top two favorites. In the four years since Qatar 2022. Spain has won the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League. Euro 2024 and the men’s soccer tournament at the Paris 2024 Olympics. In European qualifying, it advanced comfortably, finishing unbeaten atop its group. La Roja is ranked No. 2 in the global FIFA standings.
The way Spain plays is part of the pitch for the title. It’s a high-scoring. attack-minded team that has added speed and directness to the possession-based style that led it to the 2010 title. Its La Selección now plays faster and more aggressively. with strengths in one-on-one ability out wide and relentless pressing after losing the ball.
There’s a question mark attached to that intensity. Spain’s weaknesses include a squad that is perhaps too young and an attacking emphasis that can leave it exposed at the back.
Lamine Yamal is Spain’s standout star—an 18-year-old phenomenon whose record-breaking rise and Barcelona ties have already led many to frame him as the great Lionel Messi’s heir. Yamal, though, faces a race to recover from injury to be ready in time for Spain’s first group match.
Spain also leans on Nico Williams. whose speed lights up the left flank. and Pedri. the conductor of Spain’s midfield. Spain has depth across the field. but Fermín López—the Barça star—is set to miss the World Cup with a foot fracture suffered on May 17. Coach Luis de la Fuente has gotten the most out of the individual talent in this new golden generation.
Spain at a glance: Spain will face Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay in Group H. Key players: Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams and Pedri. Defending European champion. Best World Cup finish: Champion in 2010.
If Spain’s confidence comes from momentum. France’s case comes from its ability to reach the biggest stage again and again. The 2022 World Cup runner-up is the other leading contender. Les Bleus have reached the past two finals. beating Croatia at Russia 2018 and losing to Argentina in a penalty shootout at Qatar 2022. A third straight final would be something not seen since Korea/Japan 2002. when Brazil won the title after finishing runner-up in 1998 and champion in 1994—and West Germany also did it. reaching the finals in 1982. 1986 and 1990.
France has one of the tournament’s fearsome attacks. So much talent sits in reserve that it can even afford to leave Ousmane Dembélé. the current men’s Ballon d’Or. on the bench. Kylian Mbappé is untouchable in the frame of this tournament. He has been France’s leading star since Russia 2018. Mbappé scored a hattrick in the final at Qatar 2022 and is one of Real Madrid’s top players.
Dembélé won back-to-back UEFA Champions League titles with Paris Saint-Germain. and while injuries in the second half of 2025 kept him out of European qualifying. he appears to have regained form. Michael Olise. Bayern Munich’s right winger. is one of France’s most dangerous options—often playing in a central attacking role behind Mbappé with the national team.
France isn’t built only around possession. The team is often comfortable on the counterattack, using the blistering speed of its forwards. It also has a dynamic midfield and a top-level defense—an important blend when knockout games tighten and every mistake costs.
A big part of France’s claim is how it handles pressure: experience alongside youth. Having played all 14 matches across the past two World Cups gives it an edge when the knockout rounds begin. and it has been coached—by Didier Deschamps—through that pressure before. Deschamps captained France to the 1998 title, led it to the championship as coach in 2018 and to a runner-up finish in 2022. He has already announced this will be his final tournament in charge.
France at a glance: France will face Senegal, Iraq and Norway in Group I. Key players: Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise. Reached back-to-back World Cup finals: Champion in 2018 and runner-up in 2022. Best World Cup finish: Champion in 1998 and 2018.
Argentina enters with the burden of a rare achievement in view. The defending world champion is another top contender, and it will try to accomplish something only Italy (1934-1938) and Brazil (1958-1962) have done: win back-to-back World Cups.
Since lifting the trophy in Qatar, the Albiceleste has shown it is still hungry for more. It won the 2024 Copa América—also played in the United States—and dominated South American qualifying from start to finish.
The team’s defining trait remains intensity across the whole pitch. It presses after losing the ball and plays forward quickly when it wins it back. Argentina’s greatest strength may be something unusual: its players often perform even better with the national team than they do for their clubs.
Lionel Messi is still the team’s leading star. The Argentine No. 10—considered by many the greatest player in history—has repeatedly answered doubts about his age whenever he puts on his national jersey. The 38-year-old is coming off another Copa América title and finished as the top scorer in qualifying.
The spine of the team is very solid: goalkeeper Emiliano “Dibu” Martínez is described as a safe pair of hands. the center-backs consistently perform at a high level—especially Cristian Romero—and the midfield retains its identity even as names change. Up top, either Julián Álvarez or Lautaro Martínez can provide additional goals.
Lionel Scaloni has managed to keep a group that has won everything motivated. and he has been smart about integrating new players into the world champion squad. He has given Argentina a rare trait among elite teams: it can change shape depending on the opponent and still maintain its level. The way it reads matches before kickoff and during the 90 minutes. along with substitutions that often raise the team’s level. is central to that claim.
Argentina at a glance: Argentina will face Algeria, Austria and Jordan in Group J. Key players: Lionel Messi, Emiliano Martínez, Cristian Romero, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez. Has won three straight major titles: Copa América 2021, World Cup 2022 and Copa América 2024. Best World Cup finish: Champion in 1978, 1986 and 2022.
Portugal is another favorite, but its story is tied to timing. Soccer owes Portugal a major debt—it is one of the nations that has produced the most talent in the world—and this World Cup in North America may be its chance to finally cash in. The Seleção has found a highly polished style of play that carried it to the 2025 UEFA Nations League title. It qualified for the World Cup comfortably atop its European group and has one of the most complete squads in the tournament.
In any conversation about Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo’s name is impossible to sidestep. even if he is no longer at his peak. Ronaldo—CR7—still has the talent and competitive fire to be decisive. and there is little doubt he will empty the tank at age 41 in pursuit of the one major trophy missing from his résumé. His continued relevance was clear in the UEFA Nations League final, when he scored a crucial goal against Spain.
Bruno Fernandes pulls the strings in the final third with the precision of his right foot. Paris Saint-Germain star Vitinha is described as essential in speeding up circulation in midfield and maintaining possession. while Bernardo Silva is decisive from the right wing. often popping up in unexpected spaces.
Another PSG player is crucial: Nuno Mendes. The left back is described as arguably the best in the world at his position. with speed and precision that can invite comparisons to soccer legend Roberto Carlos. His partnership with Rafael Leão is expected to give Portugal the fastest left flank in the world. At the back, Rúben Dias is the leader who organizes the defense.
Coach Roberto Martínez has imposed a style based on possession and control of the tempo. Portugal wants to press high, recover the ball in the opponent’s half, then spread play wide where it has game-breaking talent.
Portugal at a glance: Portugal will face DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia in Group K. Key players: Cristiano Ronaldo, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes and Bernardo Silva. Defending UEFA Nations League champion. Best World Cup finish: Third place in 1966.
England’s case is rooted in frustration and a new kind of certainty. The country that invented the Beautiful Game wants to end a frustrating 60-year title drought. England is always mentioned as a contender before a World Cup. but it rarely translates individual talent into a dominant collective identity.
This year, it enters with eye-catching numbers from European qualifying: eight wins in eight matches and not a single goal conceded.
Harry Kane is England’s main star—captain and the team’s all-time leading scorer. The Bayern Munich striker ended his long-running “curse” of not winning a major title last year when the Bavarians won the 2024-25 Bundesliga—and they just repeated that feat. At 32, Kane enters the tournament in excellent form, with touch, vision and an extensive finishing repertoire described as lethal. Bukayo Saka is another key piece on the right wing. arriving on a roll after his goal sent Arsenal into the UEFA Champions League final. Real Madrid star Jude Bellingham brings energy and an eye for goal from midfield.
England also has a secret weapon: aerial play. Whether from set pieces or open play, its accurate delivery pairs with high-level headers.
Coach Thomas Tuchel has built a settled team around Kane. England’s problem may be its dependence on its star and the need to find alternatives if he is unavailable or neutralized.
England at a glance: England will face Croatia, Ghana and Panama in Group L. Key players: Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice. Runner-up in the past two European Championships. Best World Cup finish: Champion in 1966.
Brazil sits a step below the others in this lineup, despite its football gravity. It finished fifth in South American qualifying—a highly unusual occurrence for the historically great soccer nation.
Since the end of Qatar 2022. Brazil has had four coaches: two interim managers. including one who lasted a little more than a year. followed by the surprise appointment of Carlo Ancelotti. The serial winner with Real Madrid is the first foreign coach in history to lead the Seleção. Four coaches in four years helps explain an identity crisis around Brazil.
This is an unusual Brazil team, too. It does not have as many stars as past eras and has more options in central defense than in attack. Vinícius Júnior is described as unquestionably Brazil’s main star and hope. Real Madrid’s No. 7 brings one-on-one ability, assists and goals from the left wing. Barça star Raphinha contributes from the opposite side. though Brazil still has not found an undisputed center forward—however. the call-up of young prodigy Endrick could be the answer.
In midfield, the team is combative and has tried to become more organized to avoid suffering defensively. Ancelotti has prioritized structure first, then attack.
The biggest question mark is Neymar’s role. Neymar—Brazil icon and 34-year-old—is still far from his best form. Ancelotti has repeatedly stressed that Neymar must improve his condition if he seriously wants to contribute to success in North America, but Neymar has been named in the squad.
Even without the overwhelming talent of past generations, there’s the reminder that Brazil is a five-time world champion.
Brazil at a glance: Brazil will face Morocco, Haiti and Scotland in Group C. Key players: Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Marquinhos. Has had four coaches in the past four years. Best World Cup finish: Champion in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 and 2002.
Correction: This story has been updated as Cole Palmer was not named to the England squad.
World Cup favorites Spain France Argentina England Portugal Brazil Lamine Yamal Kylian Mbappé Lionel Messi Harry Kane Cristiano Ronaldo Carlo Ancelotti