CBO investigation – Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, and Chuck Schumer have asked the Congressional Budget Office to investigate a widening gulf between the Pentagon’s $29 billion Iran war cost estimate and outside projections that run tens of billions high
By the time the Pentagon’s number hit lawmakers’ desks, it was already out of sync with what many budget analysts were seeing.
On May 27, Senate Democrats sent a letter urging the Congressional Budget Office to scrutinize the gap between the administration’s public accounting for the Iran war and outside estimates that put the price tag up to tens of billions of dollars higher.
In the letter, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Jeff Merkley—top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee—and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asked the CBO to “take into consideration the significant divergence between the administration’s public estimates” for the Iran war’s cost and outside estimates drawn from media outlets and analysts. They said they were “concerned that the administration has not been fully truthful or transparent in its public accounting of the war’s costs so far.”.
Another 17 Democratic senators signed the request.
The CBO is the government agency tasked with providing nonpartisan analysis and information to lawmakers.
This pressure campaign is coming as lawmakers weigh how far the Pentagon may have to go next. The military has requested a record $1.5 trillion budget for next year. and Pentagon officials have said they would submit a supplemental request to Congress for additional funds for the Iran war. Pentagon officials have not said how much more they plan to request. though news reports have put the figure between $80 and $100 billion.
The underlying dispute is stark. The Pentagon’s most recent cost estimate is $29 billion, a $4 billion increase from $25 billion.
Jules Hurst. the Pentagon’s comptroller. told Congress during a May 12 budget hearing that the Iran war has cost taxpayers $29 billion—up from the $25 billion figure he gave lawmakers two weeks earlier. Hurst also said that total did not include the cost of damage to U.S. military bases and assets from Iran’s attacks, which the Pentagon had not yet fully tallied up.
That accounting hole is now at the center of the Senate Democrats’ demand for a CBO look.
Outside estimates have ranged from “slightly” higher to far higher than the Pentagon’s numbers. Mark Cancian. a senior defense adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. told USA TODAY earlier this month that the cost for the period covered by Hurst’s first estimate was likely closer to $32 billion to $35 billion. An analysis by the American Enterprise Institute also pegged the cost at up to $35 billion—from the start of the war through April 7. when the United States and Iran struck a temporary ceasefire deal.
A source familiar with congressional estimates previously told USA TODAY that battle damage could add another $15 billion to the total cost.
CBS and CNN, citing anonymous sources, reported last month that the total cost of the war was closer to $50 billion.
The Senate’s concern is not happening in a vacuum. The war began in late February with a massive bombing campaign by the United States and Israel, with the joint attack on Iran starting Feb. 28.
Since the ceasefire began seven weeks ago, the conflict has not returned to full-scale war. The U.S. military carried out what it called “self-defense” strikes on southern Iran on May 25. while Israel has continued operations in Lebanon that it described as a “deepening” campaign against Hezbollah. an ally of Iran.
At the same time, negotiations between the United States and Iran are ongoing over the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel that Iran choked off in retaliation for the war—an action that drove global oil prices higher.
The war’s human toll has been described in congressional and media reporting: 13 American service members and at least 3,000 Iranians have been killed.
Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, asked the CBO in early March to investigate the cost of the Iran war.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
As the administration weighs potential supplemental funding—and as outside estimates continue to diverge—the Senate Democrats are pushing for a single, clearer accounting baseline from the CBO, hoping lawmakers will not have to choose between competing numbers for the war’s price.
Senate Democrats Congressional Budget Office CBO Pentagon Iran war costs Jules Hurst Elizabeth Warren Jeff Merkley Chuck Schumer Brendan Boyle federal budget supplemental request defense spending Strait of Hormuz oil prices
So they’re just now noticing the Pentagon math is off?
I don’t get it, aren’t outside estimates supposed to be less accurate? Like media can guess higher and then everyone panics. Sounds like politics tbh.
Wait… the war is “$29 billion” but reports say $80 to $100 billion? That means somebody lied somewhere. But also maybe the CBO is gonna take forever and meanwhile they’ll approve more money anyway.
Warren and Schumer demanding a CBO probe sounds good but it’s like… isn’t the Pentagon always “requesting supplemental funds”? I saw another headline that said it’s because they don’t count equipment properly or whatever. Also 1.5 trillion budget next year is insane, like how is this even allowed if the costs are that different.