Scheffler chases history as U.S. Open turns wild

Scottie Scheffler arrives at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills as the overwhelming favorite, but recent champions, brutal course setups, and long-odds names with specific strengths make this edition feel anything but predictable.

Scottie Scheffler went in-depth about how to handle expectations ahead of the 2026 U.S. Open—and the weight of that “first” is impossible to ignore.

His first attempt at completing golf’s career Grand Slam arrives this week at the 2026 U.S. Open. Scheffler has already won The Open Championship and the PGA Championship in 2025, leaving only the U.S. Open among golf’s major trophies he’s yet to secure.

There’s a reason that matters. The U.S. Open has a history of producing unexpected champions, and that’s been especially true in recent years: J.J. Spaun became one last year. Wyndham Clark won his first major at the U.S. Open in 2023. Matt Fitzpatrick did the same in 2022. Gary Woodland was a first-time major winner in 2019.

Now the U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton. New York. and the venue’s reputation is baked into every betting ticket and every player’s routine. The USGA is known for brutal course layouts and conditions. and that combination—Scheffler’s spotlight plus Shinnecock’s temperament—has created real room for surprises.

Betting odds set the tone. Brooks Koepka won the 2018 U.S. Open when it was last held here, and Scheffler remains an overwhelming favorite, according to pre-tournament odds. All odds are provided via BetMGM, as of Wednesday, June 17.

Scheffler’s road to favoritism runs through a crowded leaderboard of long shots. The top of the odds board lists Scheffler at +550. followed by Rory McIlroy at +1200. Jon Rahm at +1400. Xander Schauffele at +1800. Cameron Young at +2000. Matt Fitzpatrick at +2000. Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. Ludvig Åberg at +2200. Bryson DeChambeau at +3300. and Tyrrell Hatton at +3300.

And if you’re looking past the favorites, the question becomes how the event’s conditions might tilt the odds toward players with the right games for Shinnecock.

Russell Henley is one of the long-odds names being treated as a real threat. He’s listed at +3,500, and his case is built around expected wind. Henley is described as adept in windy conditions. with accuracy off the tee and with his irons suited for Shinnecock Hills. He also brings recent momentum: five top-10 finishes at majors since 2024. including third place at The Masters this year. and a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge last month.

Patrick Reed’s odds sit at +4,000. The storyline here is tied to familiarity with the moment—he’s in the midst of returning to the PGA Tour after leaving for LIV Golf. The source of the hope is performance: Reed was in contention at various times during the first majors of the 2026 season.

Chris Gotterup follows at +4,500. He’s No. 11 in the world golf rankings entering the U.S. Open and has reached as high as No. 5 earlier this year. The angle being floated is a “local major” feel: he grew up in New Jersey. and his skills off the tee should come in handy at Shinnecock Hills. Gotterup already has two top-10 finishes in six career major starts.

Joaquin Niemann is a bigger swing at +6,600. Nobody has won more tournaments on the LIV Golf tour than Niemann. who captured his eighth title earlier this month at LIV Golf Korea. But his major résumé is thinner: only one career top-10 finish. Still. he’s been considered a rising star. and the idea behind his value is blunt—his poor track record in the biggest tournaments is baked into the odds.

Aaron Rai is listed at +8,000. The broader setup here is that there are currently 32 golfers in the field with better odds than one ranked No. 5 in the world; Rai’s driving accuracy is the counterweight. He’s second on the PGA Tour this season, and that precision is expected to matter at Shinnecock Hills.

Jake Knapp rounds out the longer list at +10,000. He hasn’t played in a PGA Tour event since April due to injury. but the form being referenced is his ramp-up before that: five top-10 finishes in nine starts. during what was described as his best season as a pro leading up to his absence. Golfweek’s David Dusek wrote that Knapp “quietly blends the two most-important things that lead to success in a U.S. Open, great ballstriking and elite putting.”.

The schedule is straightforward, and the stakes land fast. The 2026 U.S. Open will be broadcast nationally on NBC, USA Network and NBCSN. Live streaming coverage is available on Peacock, Fubo, USOpen.com and the U.S. Open app.

All times Eastern: Round 1 is Thursday, June 18; Round 2 is Friday, June 19; Round 3 is Saturday, June 20; and the Final Round is Sunday, June 21.

For Scheffler, the only thing more demanding than the course is the expectation that he should finish a historical sweep. For everyone else, the math still leaves room for a different kind of outcome—one the U.S. Open has rewarded often enough to keep players chasing uncertainty right up to the first tee shot.

2026 U.S. Open Scottie Scheffler Shinnecock Hills BetMGM odds Russell Henley Patrick Reed Chris Gotterup Joaquin Niemann Aaron Rai Jake Knapp NBC Peacock Fubo