Secretary of State Marco Rubio outperformed Vice President J.D. Vance in four of five hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups against Democratic contenders, according to a new Emerson College Polling and The Hill survey.
The results give Rubio an advantage in hypothetical general-election contests even as he and Vance remain nearly tied in Republican primary polling.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the only Democrat to hold the same 5-point advantage over both Republicans, beating each by identical margins. In every other matchup, Rubio performed better than Vance.
Sen. Jon Ossoff and California Gov. Gavin Newsom each led Vance by 5 points, but their advantages over Rubio narrowed to 3 points and 2 points, respectively. Former Vice President Kamala Harris led Vance 49%-45%, while Rubio led Harris by 5 points. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trailed Vance by 2 points but Rubio by 5 points, matching Buttigieg’s margin. She was the only Democrat tested to trail both Republicans.
At least 6% of respondents were undecided in every matchup, with the share reaching 11% in the Vance-Ocasio-Cortez matchup. The survey of 1,000 respondents had a 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Neither man has declared, but both lead the GOP field
Neither Vance nor Rubio has said whether he will seek the presidency in 2028, but both have emerged as the top two choices among likely Republican primary voters.
An Emerson College survey conducted May 24-25 found Vance and Rubio nearly tied, with 36% of Republican primary voters supporting Vance and 35% backing Rubio. That marked a sharp shift from Emerson’s February survey, when Vance led Rubio 52%-20%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each had 5% support in the May poll.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said the Republican primary had shifted significantly since February.
Rubio held an edge among Republican voters over age 50, with 41% support compared with 35% for Vance.
Rubio, who finished third in the 2016 Republican presidential primary behind President Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, told Vanity Fair last year that he would defer to Vance if the vice president seeks the 2028 nomination.
Vance says he’ll weigh a run after the midterms
Vance said in June that he plans to discuss a potential presidential run with his wife after the November midterm elections.
“The way I make decisions is, I try not to make them until I absolutely must,” Vance told Robert Costa on CBS’ Sunday Morning.
The 2028 Republican primary will be the first since 2012 without Trump as a candidate because he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
Trump has floated a Vance-Rubio ticket
Trump has not publicly endorsed either Vance or Rubio, though The Washington Post reported earlier this month that he told donors in the Oval Office, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD.” Trump later said Vance is “great” but that it is “way too early to even be thinking about that.”
Trump has also floated the possibility of a joint Vance-Rubio ticket. In June, he said the populist Vance and traditionally conservative Rubio would make “a great team.” “I don’t know how you beat them if they’re together,” he told Miranda Devine on the New York Post‘s “Pod Force One” podcast.
Rubio’s 2028 prospects rise with expanded role
Rubio’s improved standing in GOP primary polling comes as he has taken on a higher-profile role as secretary of state, including involvement in the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the campaign of strikes against Iran.
At the Conservative Political Action Conference earlier this year, Rubio placed second in the group’s 2028 presidential straw poll with 35% support, up from 3% a year earlier. Vance won the poll with 53%.
Democratic field remains fluid
Buttigieg and Newsom have ranked at or near the top of Emerson’s Democratic primary polling this year, with Harris and Ocasio-Cortez also drawing significant support.
Ocasio-Cortez has separately highlighted a December 2025 Argument/Verasight poll showing her leading Vance 51%-49% in a hypothetical matchup. She responded to the result on social media with a single word, “Bloop!”
The 2028 race remains more than two years away, and both parties’ fields could shift significantly depending on the November midterm results and which potential candidates decide to run.