Republicans get fresh odds of flipping Michigan as progressive Dem Abdul El-Sayed wins Senate primary, paving way for toss-up race against Mike Rogers
Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, setting up a general election matchup against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in a race both parties view as pivotal to control of the U.S. Senate in 2026.
The Associated Press called the race for El-Sayed after he led Rep. Haley Stevens by one percentage point with 99 percent of ballots counted. NBC News also projected El-Sayed as the winner, with correspondent Henry J. Gomez writing that his victory established “a Midwest beachhead for a progressive left on the march this midterm cycle.”
El-Sayed will face Rogers, a former House Intelligence Committee chairman who ran unopposed for the Republican nomination, in November. Rogers is seeking the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. ABC News noted that the race could help determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress.
El-Sayed overcame heavy outside spending
El-Sayed’s victory came despite what NBC News described as nearly $65 million in outside spending against him and strong establishment support for Stevens. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Stevens late last month in what was seen as a last-ditch effort to stop El-Sayed’s rise.
Much of the outside spending came from pro-Israel groups. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee and affiliated organizations spent roughly $30 million opposing El-Sayed, according to the Associated Press, citing his criticism of the Israeli government.
Despite the spending, El-Sayed led most late polls of likely primary voters. Bridge Michigan suggested the results indicated many Democratic voters had tuned out or rejected the advertising campaign against him.
Detroit resident Mary Spencer, 29, told Bridge Michigan she was “happy” to support El-Sayed because of his positions on universal health care and keeping taxpayer money in Michigan. Alpena restaurant worker Lucas Moquin, 33, said Stevens’ establishment backing worked against her.
“Stevens is more of a career politician and we’re long overdue for a changeup, generally,” Moquin told the outlet.
Some Republicans also appeared to view El-Sayed as the weaker general-election opponent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee produced a digital ad highlighting his progressive credentials and endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, which NBC News reported was viewed by some as an effort to help push him into the general election.
Stevens concedes as Democrats rally behind El-Sayed
Stevens called El-Sayed to concede shortly after the race was called, according to a campaign spokesperson cited by ABC News. She later issued a statement supporting him in November.
Whitmer, Sen. Elissa Slotkin and other prominent Michigan Democrats also backed El-Sayed, quickly turning the party’s focus toward defeating Rogers.
In his victory remarks, El-Sayed framed the primary as a test of Democratic unity.
“Donald Trump and Mike Rogers want us to come out of this primary tired and divided, so their billionaire backers can come in and let multimillionaire Mike Rogers walk away with this Senate seat,” El-Sayed said, according to ABC News. He added that he did not intend to let that happen.
Trump attacks El-Sayed after primary win
President Donald Trump responded with a series of attacks on El-Sayed on social media and at a public event.
On Truth Social, Trump baselessly suggested that vote counting in Wayne County could be manipulated and urged Michigan voters to support Rogers to make the state “too big to rig.” He separately called El-Sayed’s victory “great news for the Republican Party” and described him as a “Communist loser.”
Trump escalated his rhetoric later that day at a campaign-style event in Las Vegas that was officially focused on a tax provision in his signature legislation.
According to TIME, Trump called El-Sayed “a man of hate” who was “full of sh–t,” and claimed without evidence that “he hates Jews and he hates Israel.” Yahoo News reported that Trump also said El-Sayed hates Jewish people and Israel “with a burning passion in his heart.”
El-Sayed responded during a CNN interview with anchor Kaitlan Collins.
“I’m glad he thinks I’m a lovely gentleman. A lot of people think so,” El-Sayed said, referring to Trump’s remarks.
He argued that Trump’s attacks had shifted the discussion away from policy. El-Sayed separately told CNN that he opposed unconditional military aid to any country, including Israel and believed taxpayer money should instead fund health care, schools and roads.
Race rated a toss-up as polling tightens
Several nonpartisan forecasters currently view the general election as a toss-up.
RealClearPolling’s average shows Rogers with a 0.3-point advantage over El-Sayed, 44.3 percent to 44 percent. Polymarket odds tracked by the site give Democrats a 60 percent chance of retaining the seat.
Earlier polling offered a mixed picture. A Michigan Education survey by the Glengariff Group conducted about a week before the primary showed Rogers leading El-Sayed by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup, with 11 percent undecided. The same poll showed Stevens essentially tied with Rogers.
An EPIC-MRA survey conducted July 24-31 found Rogers leading Stevens 44 percent to 42 percent and also holding an advantage over El-Sayed.
A Rogers victory would make him the first Republican to represent Michigan in the Senate since Spencer Abraham, who served from 1995 to 2001. El-Sayed would become the first Muslim American elected to the U.S. Senate, a milestone TIME noted in its coverage.
Benson and James advance to November
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James also won their respective gubernatorial primaries, setting up a November contest to succeed term-limited Gov. Whitmer.
ABC News noted that a James victory would make him Michigan’s first elected Black Republican governor.
Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the governor’s race as Lean Democratic. The contest shifted from toss-up status after former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ended his independent campaign, allowing Benson to consolidate Democratic-leaning support.
Israel policy divides Democratic primary
The Democratic primary between El-Sayed and Stevens became increasingly contentious in its final weeks, with Israel policy emerging as a major dividing line.
Stevens supported continued U.S. aid to Israel, while El-Sayed campaigned as a vocal critic of the Israeli government’s conduct in Gaza.
El-Sayed also faced criticism for appearing alongside left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has drawn backlash over past remarks concerning the September 11 attacks and the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
Appearing on Fox & Friends in April, El-Sayed said, “Of course I oppose rape. Of course I don’t think 9/11 was justified,” while defending his decision to campaign with Piker. El-Sayed argued that appearing with someone does not mean endorsing all of their views.
Stevens criticized the appearance, saying in a statement reported by Fox News that “it is unacceptable for a candidate wanting to represent all Michiganders to campaign with Hasan Piker, a person who is unapologetic about a career of making hurtful and anti-Semitic comments.”
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow separately told Jewish Insider that Piker was “somebody who says extremely offensive things in order to generate clicks.”
El-Sayed also faced backlash after leaked audio surfaced in which he declined to say whether the world was better off following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, citing sadness within Dearborn’s community.
Rogers’ campaign communications director, Alyssa Brouillet, told Fox News Digital that “you would think sympathizing with a terrorist regime would be disqualifying, but apparently, for Democrats, it’s a fast pass to the front of the primary,” adding that “no amount of Abdul’s attempts to distract or deflect will be enough to hide how dangerous he and the Democrat party really are for Michigan.”