Dolly no longer a tropical storm, Caribbean impacts still possible
Dolly has become disorganized and is no longer a tropical storm, but it still has beneficial Caribbean rains and a potential second chapter ahead.
The latest on Dolly
The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are quickly approaching the northeast Caribbean and will begin affecting the islands late this weekend.
Tropical Storm Dolly formed Thursday morning, becoming the fourth storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. By late Friday morning, observations showed that Dolly was an open tropical wave and no longer a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center still has the remnants of Dolly marked as an area of low development but have mentioned that the chance of Dolly redeveloping before impacting land is low.
The timing of the use of this name for a tropical storm is “purely coincidental,” according to the National Hurricane Center. The name “Dolly” was chosen in the early 1990s, has been on a rotating list of names since 1996 and was also used prior to the 1990s.
(MORE: A tropical storm is called ‘Dolly,’ but it’s not meant as a tribute)
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Dolly to bring better fortunes in the Caribbean
The moisture from ex-Dolly may actually be some good news for much of the Caribbean, which is in a building drought. That includes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which are in a rapidly developing drought.
The Caribbean gets a large amount of moisture from the tropical waves that pass through from east to west in July through September. During this El Niño, that moisture and many of those tropical waves have fizzled.
The forecast for September rainfall is pretty bleak, as you can see on the map below, but this doesn’t account for any tropical systems that may develop.
Climate model suggesting drier than average conditions are likely across the Caribbean in September.
(TropicalTidbits.com)
What’s left of Dolly is just east of the Leeward Islands and will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola during the next few days.
Most of this rainfall will be beneficial, but a few of these locally heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding in some areas, particularly in hilly or mountainous terrain.
A Dolly comeback in the works?
El Niño’s influence is often confined to the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, where the climate actor enhances storm-killing winds aloft, but if storms like Dolly can get far enough north, there is another chance of life.
(IN DEPTH: Super El Niños alter where hurricanes track)
This system will continue moving toward the west-northwest next week, and a few computer models suggest this system could have a chance of redeveloping later next week between the Gulf and the western Atlantic, shown below. Use this map not for specifics, but as a general idea that there’s a chance of development in those areas with some of Dolly’s DNA.
One run of the Google DeepMind ensemble model through the next 10 days showing that tropical redevelopment may be possible in the Gulf or western Atlantic.
Here’s how that could happen.
First, the system has a couple of hurdles over the next week:
- Dolly has already succumbed to strong winds aloft and will continue to deal with these winds through the early part of the week. You can see the tracks evaporate over the northeastern Caribbean for that reason. You can see the current wind shear map here.
- Whatever makes it through the fierce headwinds will next face land interaction. There isn’t a circulation to disrupt by the middle of next week, but friction from the mountains of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba will delay any attempts at development.
From there, Dolly’s DNA will need to find a new home that is hospitable for development. This area has gradually moved westward in the last few days from the Atlantic to the Gulf. Further shifts are expected.
What exactly this system looks like 7-10 days from now is unknowable. More moisture for the Southeast is possible.
It’s a reminder that while we expect a quieter hurricane season, you should have your hurricane safety plan ready to go and monitor forecasts throughout the season.
Area in Gulf too?
The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of low pressure in the Gulf. This area could bring scattered showers and storms along the Gulf as it moves to the West. Regardless of development, rounds of heavy rainfall could occur along the Gulf Coast through the weekend and potentially into early next week.
It only takes one storm to make a hurricane season impactful.
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