Rays vs. – The Tampa Bay Rays open a three-game series at Baltimore’s Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Monday, May 25 with a Memorial Day matinee set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Shane McClanahan goes for the Rays, Kyle Bradish for the Orioles, with Tampa Bay favored on the money lin
For the third straight day in Baltimore—or at least the third straight game coming up—Orioles fans will be watching the same question hang in the air: can this team flip the momentum back in its favor?
On Monday, May 25, the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays for a Memorial Day matinee to begin a three-game series between the AL East counterparts. First pitch at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 1:35 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay arrives rolling. The Rays (34-16, 15-11 Away) are bringing a five-game winning streak into Baltimore and are first in the AL East. The Orioles (23-30, 14-13 Home) are currently fourth in the AL East and are coming off a loss to the Detroit Tigers.
On the mound, the matchup pairs Shane McClanahan for the Rays against Kyle Bradish for Baltimore. McClanahan’s season line is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, along with 47 strikeouts. Bradish counters at 2-6 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, plus 58 strikeouts.
The betting lines reflect how tilted the weekend’s equation currently looks. Tampa Bay is listed as a slight -119 favorite on the money line (risk $119 to win $100). while Baltimore is at -104 in the latest Rays vs. Orioles odds. The over/under for total runs is 7.5. On the run line, the Rays are set at -1.5 (+142).
There’s also a clear theme in the projections. After 10,000 simulations of Rays vs. Orioles, the model is going Over 7.5 combined runs. For over/under betting. the Over has hit in two of the last three games for the Tampa Bay Rays. and Shane McClanahan’s last two starts have gone over the total. The projection also points to batting contributions across both lineups: the model projects 1.6 total bases or more for the Rays’ Junior Caminero. Chandler Simpson. Jonathan Aranda. and Yandy Diaz. For Baltimore, it projects over 1.5 total bases or more from Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Pete Alonso.
The same simulation math produces a combined-runs storyline that favors fireworks. The model projects 9.7 combined runs with the Over hitting in 69% of simulations.
The money line pick is framed as the more decisive side. After simulating every pitch of Orioles vs. Rays 10,000 times, the model says one side of the money line has all the value, and that pick is available through its Rays vs. Orioles money-line selection.
By the time the teams take the field on Monday afternoon, all of it boils down to the same basic ledger: Tampa Bay’s momentum and pitching edge against Baltimore’s home turnaround hopes, with 1:35 p.m. ET the moment when the matchup’s numbers become something tangible.
Rays vs. Orioles May 25 Shane McClanahan Kyle Bradish AL East MLB odds 7.5 over under Orioles home Rays money line
Rays are favored again… shocker. Hopefully McClanahan doesn’t implode like usual 😒
Is this the game where the Rays always win by like 3 runs? I saw something about -119 and I don’t even know what that means, but it feels like Baltimore’s doomed. Also 1:35 is such a weird time for Memorial Day.
They’re saying Over 7.5 a lot right? I mean Orioles pitchers are trash lately but then again Camden Yards is Camden Yards so maybe it turns into a home run derby. Bradish ERA 4.13 sounds bad though, so I’d lean Rays… unless Tampa’s bullpen is cooked again.
Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz getting “1.6 total bases” or whatever is cute but I swear simulations don’t mean anything. Like the Orioles are fourth in the AL East? That’s wild, Detroit just beat them so everyone’s gonna be like “momentum” but momentum is fake. Also I thought Memorial Day games always start at like 7pm not 1:35.