With millions of California ballots still uncounted, political experts say early Republican momentum could fade as vote-by-mail returns are tallied—leaving Councilmember Nithya Raman’s hopes alive but heavily constrained. The same delayed-count dynamic is also
By Wednesday morning, the question in Los Angeles politics wasn’t just who would advance.
It was which votes would still show up.
Councilmember Nithya Raman—currently in third place behind reality TV personality Spencer Pratt and Mayor Karen Bass. who has secured a spot in the runoff—has watched the early vote count place her on the ropes. Yet as California’s primary results remain incomplete and millions of ballots wait to be counted. political experts say the remaining totals could shift in Democrats’ favor. especially as new vote-by-mail batches are added.
“Don’t count Nithya Raman out yet. ” Zev Yaroslavsky. director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin. said. pointing to a pattern he tracks closely in local elections. Raman is behind Pratt and would need to make up significant ground to reach him and secure a sizable portion of remaining votes.
Yaroslavsky said Pratt has an “edge,” but not one “free from doubt.” Pratt’s lead, he argued, could narrow as more ballots—particularly those cast later—enter the count.
Rob Stutzman, a longtime GOP strategist, agreed the remaining vote count will skew more strongly for Democrats, but said he isn’t convinced it will change Raman’s position much. “I don’t think you’re going to see a big swing,” Stutzman said.
In his view, Raman’s path depends on beating Bass considerably in the remaining count—an outcome he said does not seem likely. Still, he pointed to election night as proof that Republicans, long a minority in deep blue California, found an opening.
Pratt, a Republican, clearly broke through to a segment of Los Angeles, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. And in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, Steve Hilton—backed by President Trump and identified as a Fox News commentator—emerged as the leading vote-getter.
Experts said both campaigns have benefited from tapping dissatisfaction with the status quo in Democratic politics. But they also said the early advantage Republicans gained has often been tempered as the vote count becomes more complete—especially in California. where Democrats tend to be more comfortable voting by mail. a method that can stretch out final results.
This primary, with a Democratic push for voters to cast later ballots, increases the possibility of a “blue swing,” Yaroslavsky predicted—particularly in Los Angeles County.
He said Republicans “over-performed” in early tallies. Last primary, Bass initially trailed developer Rick Caruso in the mayoral race, only for Bass to continue gaining a lead as more ballots came in.
Those shifting early numbers are already visible statewide. As of Wednesday morning. a higher share—32%—of counted ballots came from registered Republicans across the state. compared with 29% during 2022’s primary at the same point in the count. Democrats, meanwhile, made up 47% of early vote counts this primary, compared with 51% in 2022. That gap is being tracked across ballot types that include early mailed-in and dropped-off ballots as well as votes cast at in-person polls.
The mechanics of how California counts votes make this kind of suspense possible. Ballots accepted in the state can be submitted up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked on or before election day. The official count can take up to 30 days.
Voting by mail—and drop boxes—has become the dominant method since universal vote-by-mail was implemented in 2021. More than 80% of ballots have come from absentee. or vote-by-mail ballots. according to the California Voter Foundation’s analysis of the last four vote counts in California. In the 2022 primary, the share was as high as 91%.
Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, said people should expect the first counted ballots to be less representative than the overall final mix.
“We need to accept the first ballots that are counted aren’t always those that are most representative,” Levinson said. She rejected the idea—promoted by some politicians—that slower counting is a sign of rigging or fraud.
“We allow people lots of different avenues to vote, and as a result it takes longer to count up all the votes,” Levinson said. “That’s how it should be. … It’s an argument in favor of making sure the process runs correctly — not quickly.”
The same delayed-count dynamics are also reaching into statewide politics. The top two vote-getters in California’s primary advance to the November election regardless of party. Experts said a late “blue swing” could affect some statewide contests, including the governor’s race.
As of Wednesday morning, the top three vote-getters—Hilton and Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer—were all within a few percentage points, though less than 60% of the expected vote had been counted.
Could Steyer, who trails, make it back into the second-place slot?. Stutzman said Hilton appears comfortable. “I think he’s fairly comfortable,” he said. For Steyer to overtake Becerra. Stutzman said. late ballots would have to dramatically rewrite the numbers—requiring Steyer to “resoundingly” beat Becerra in the late vote.
Hilton currently leads the contest by about 100,000 votes over Becerra, but has an edge of about 400,000 votes over Steyer. Pollsters expect Becerra to make the runoff.
For Raman, the suspense remains sharper. She is behind Pratt and Bass after early counts placed her third. But Yaroslavsky’s warning—“Don’t count [Councilmember] Nithya Raman out yet”—captures the core reality of this moment in California: when millions of ballots are still uncounted. the story isn’t finished. It’s just waiting.
California primary Nithya Raman Spencer Pratt Karen Bass vote-by-mail Los Angeles elections Steve Hilton Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Gavin Newsom Zev Yaroslavsky Rob Stutzman