Protein cravings collide with whey shortages and price spikes

As Americans and global consumers push for more protein in everyday foods, the dairy industry is struggling to keep up. Tight supplies of whey protein—boosted by the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs—have driven record prices and reshaped exports, pushing costs

By the time shoppers realize whey protein is missing from a product lineup or costs more than it did last year, the strain has already traveled a long way—from cheese vats to food manufacturing plants, and then into grocery carts.

Whey protein concentrate and isolate have become a go-to ingredient for athletes, older adults and food companies chasing protein-focused demand. In the U.S. the average supermarket now carries 38. 708 products advertising their protein content. according to NielsenIQ. a market research company. But the same eagerness to add protein has exposed a supply problem: food-grade whey protein is in short supply. and prices have climbed to new records.

“The demand is very firm and seemingly outpacing supply for right now,” said Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of Ever.Ag Insights, a data provider and consulting company for the agriculture industry.

Wholesale prices for whey protein began rising in 2024. The pace accelerated last year and continued into the first part of this year, Wolfley said. Whey protein concentrate with 80% protein—used by food makers and supplement companies—was trading on the dairy commodities market at more than $13 per pound in the U.S. up 250% from a year ago. according to Ever.Ag. Whey protein isolate, the more refined version containing at least 90% protein, was 150% more expensive than last year, the company said.

Retail prices have followed. Over the past year, U.S. prices for whey protein concentrate powder increased by around 15%, while more premium whey isolate powder saw steeper gains, according to Datasembly, a price-tracking company.

A similar squeeze is unfolding in Europe. In late May, 80% whey protein concentrate hit a new record average of 26,450 euros ($30,518) per metric ton—more than double from less than a year earlier—according to DCA Market Intelligence, a Netherlands-based commodity pricing firm.

What ties these spikes together is an old product in a new role: whey used to be widely exported when the U.S. produced more than it needed. Now, domestic demand is absorbing more of it.

During cheese-making, milk’s two main proteins—casein and whey—are separated. Casein forms solid curds; whey is dried to form powder. Every pound of cheese yields nine pounds of whey, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

U.S. milk consumption has fallen for decades as Americans shifted to beverages like sodas. Cheese, however, stayed popular, Wolfley said. That cheese appetite generated a lot of whey protein, and some of the excess was exported to China and other countries.

Now, the domestic appetite for high-protein snacks and meals is keeping more whey protein in the U.S. for use as a food additive or a nutritional supplement. Exports of 80% whey protein concentrate and whey protein isolate to China fell 47% from January through April compared with the same four-month period a year ago. according to Vesper. an Amsterdam-based company that tracks commodity prices.

“There simply isn’t enough product for the U.S. customer, and exports have therefore been paused as much as possible,” said Jasper Endlich, a Vesper dairy analyst. He said China is seeking more whey protein from Europe, which is also seeing shortages thanks to reduced U.S. exports.

One more pressure point has tightened the market further: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.

The use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is one factor that has supercharged demand for whey protein concentrate, Wolfley said. Drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound are designed to suppress appetites. Experts say the foods patients do eat need to be nutritionally dense. GLP-1 users are often advised to consume enough protein to feel full longer and to retain muscle mass as they lose weight.

Morgan Stanley estimated that around 6% of obese and diabetic patients in the U.S. and 2% of obese and diabetic patients worldwide were using GLP-1 drugs last year. Some estimates have put GLP-1 use as high as 12% of the U.S. adult population, since not everyone on GLP-1 drugs is obese or diabetic.

Food and nutrition companies have responded by creating added-protein products aimed at these consumers and at people who believe replacing meals with protein shakes can help them lose weight.

For manufacturers, the result is a familiar scramble: when whey costs rise faster than other inputs, pricing power becomes difficult—and consumers feel it at the shelf.

Now Foods. an Illinois-based maker of health foods and nutritional supplements. said tubs of whey protein powder are consistently its biggest seller in its sports nutrition category. But after two years of paying more for raw ingredients. the company raised the price of its own whey protein products earlier this year.

Bryan Morin. the sports brand manager at Now. said the company doesn’t anticipate further price increases on whey protein powder this year. To manage costs, it is trying to absorb some of its increased costs by cutting back on discounts. Now Foods is also considering expanding its portfolio to include products made with milk protein concentrate. a powder that contains less whey and is cheaper.

“From our perspective, broader market dynamics continue to indicate a tight and evolving protein landscape,” Morin said.

Some relief may be coming, but not on a timeline that helps anyone shopping right now.

Wolfley said manufacturers are investing in whey protein production, which should eventually improve supplies. But the relief won’t be immediate.

Glanbia. an Irish nutrition company. said in November that it planned to increase whey protein isolate production in New Mexico. with additional capacity not in place until 2027. In February. Canadian dairy company Agropur said it intended to increase whey protein manufacturing at plants in Quebec. Nova Scotia. South Dakota and Wisconsin.

In the meantime, higher prices could change buying habits. Wolfley said some consumers may stop buying whey protein powders, especially as groceries get more expensive overall. Reduced retail demand could also ease shortages at the wholesale level, but it may take time.

“The supply-demand dynamics could start to improve, but I don’t know if that’s a tomorrow dynamic or within a year. Some of these things are going to take time,” Wolfley said.

The market is tightening under the weight of a simple mismatch: consumers want more protein in more places, and the whey that makes it possible is still struggling to catch up.

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