With the 151st Preakness Stakes set for Saturday, May 16 at Laurel Park, Iron Honor enters as the 9-2 favorite. But elite handicapper Michelle Yu says the Gotham Stakes winner may be the wrong bet, pointing instead to Taj Mahal’s Laurel Park record and flaggin
A week after Golden Tempo captured the Kentucky Derby, racing fans turn to Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16 for the 151st running of the Preakness Stakes, with renovations still ongoing at Pimlico Race Course.
The stakes are practical as well as sporting.. Post time is approximately 6:50 p.m.. ET. attendance is expected to be around 5. 000 fans at the smaller venue. and the betting picture is already shaping up around Iron Honor. listed at 9-2 in the latest Preakness Stakes 2026 odds.. Yet even with the betting favorite in place and a two-time Preakness-winning trainer. Chad Brown. overseeing him. one prominent handicapper isn’t buying the top choice.
Iron Honor leads the board at 9-2, but Taj Mahal, Chip Honcho and Incredibolt are grouped among the top contenders at 5-1. Ocelli sits slightly behind them at 6-1, while Golden Tempo, the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, will not compete in Saturday’s race.
For Michelle Yu, the key tension is whether the favorite is paying off—or whether the better play is hiding elsewhere in the field. Yu is especially interested in Taj Mahal, calling it a “surprise” pick this week. Her case is grounded in a simple stat: the horse is 3 for 3 at Laurel Park.
Even with Iron Honor as the betting favorite, Yu said she isn’t convinced he’s worth backing in the Preakness.
“The Gotham Stakes winner really faltered when stretching out to nine furlongs in his last start,” Yu said.
She added that Iron Honor might not have shown his best self in that outing, suggesting the trip could have interfered with his performance.
“Lightly raced, he might have been hindered by the trip in that effort as well.”
Still, Yu doesn’t treat Iron Honor’s recent form as a blank check. While she acknowledged he’s a Gotham Stakes winner and noted the trainer setup, she pointed to what she sees as a mismatch between the horse’s profile and the realities of this race length and preparation.
Taj Mahal’s recent momentum also plays into her thinking. The Brittany Russell-trained colt is coming off an 8¼-length victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes, and Yu described the way he’s winning rather than just the final margins.
“He isn’t inching out these wins,” Yu said. “He’s winning going away.”
Yu also raised a broader, social angle tied to who’s getting opportunities to land the biggest prizes. After pointing to Cherie DeVaux making history by leading Golden Tempo to the Derby victory two weeks ago, Yu said another female trainer could be in position to break new ground.
“She was the first woman to win the Derby, and no female trainer has won the Preakness Stakes.”
That belief doesn’t come only from symbolism, Yu’s comments suggest—it’s tied to her confidence in specific runners and how she expects them to handle Saturday’s circumstances.
Her stance on Iron Honor is blunt: Yu said she is not taking him as her top win contender, describing the Gotham Stakes performance as “really faltered.” And she questioned whether the Preakness distance will play to his strengths.
In Yu’s view. the better value is elsewhere—starting with Taj Mahal. and extending to another part of her bigger betting plan that includes both a longshot and a separate “top pick” description she framed as being in “super shape.” She also said she’s high on a “massive double-digit longshot” that she called “sneaky. ” while she shares her full approach and wagers through her Preakness picks.
The Preakness Stakes is scheduled for Saturday, May 16 at Laurel Park, with a post time of approximately 6:50 p.m.. ET, and a field that is headed by Iron Honor at 9-2.. But as Yu’s comments make clear. the night’s biggest fight may not be between the headline favorite and the challengers—it may be over who deserves the trust when the race finally breaks from the gate.
Preakness Stakes 2026 Iron Honor odds Taj Mahal Chad Brown Michelle Yu Laurel Park Golden Tempo will not run betting picks