California governor – Ahead of the June 2 California jungle primary, polls show Xavier Becerra holding a narrow lead over Steve Hilton, with Tom Steyer close behind. The outcome could hinge on low turnout, large numbers of undecided voters, and a crowded ballot where two top finish
On the morning after another round of debates, California voters were left with the same question they’ve been carrying for weeks: with 61 gubernatorial candidates on the June 2 “jungle” primary ballot, who exactly is ready to lead— and who is just loud enough to be noticed?
Analysts say the top two vote-getters—regardless of party—advance to the November general election. With polls showing a tight three-way contest. the difference between winning and missing the cut may come down less to certainty than to timing: whether undecided voters finally pick one lane. and whether turnout lands below expectations.
Becerra leads in the latest snapshots, Hilton nipping at his heels
Recent polls show Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, slightly ahead of Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor endorsed by President Donald Trump. Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer trails close behind.
In a Public Policy Institute of California poll released May 27, Becerra leads the field at 23%, followed by Hilton at 20%, with Steyer third at 15%.
A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll on May 29 puts Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer within striking distance at 19%.
A third poll—the Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics release on the next day—shows Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton a close third at 21%. That result introduces the possibility of two Democrats reaching the general election if Steyer can surpass Hilton.
Nearly 1 in 4 voters remain undecided, according to polls, and that uncertainty is helping keep Steyer alive. Paul Mitchell. vice president of Political Data Inc. a Sacramento-based bipartisan voter data firm. said. “I think Steyer has more than a shot of winning a spot. ” adding. “I don’t think this race is over by any stretch.”.
David McCuan, a longtime political science professor at Sonoma State University, sees Steyer “nipping at their heels,” but warns, “he might not get enough votes to push through.”
The jungle primary mechanics are built for volatility
California elections can be complicated, and the June 2 primary is built to magnify that. Voters will see 61 gubernatorial candidates on their ballots. The two leading vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November general election.
Analysts believe about 15% of the vote may be needed for the top two candidates to advance, a threshold that underscores how quickly a crowded field can change the math.
Low voter turnout—already a chronic feature of California primaries—could make the difference even sharper this year. Fewer than 40% of the state’s 23 million registered voters are expected to participate on June 2, Mitchell told the outlet.
Mitchell said Democratic voters. especially women. are returning ballots at lower rates compared with the state’s last midterm election in 2022. reflecting uncertainty about their options. Using Political Data insights. he pointed to a slower return rate among Democrats: 44% of the ballots returned through May 27 have come from registered Democrats. compared with 53% at the same point four years ago. Republicans have accounted for 35% of ballots returned, up from their 26% share in 2022.
With so many Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Mitchell said voters are holding on to their ballots longer. waiting to get clearer signals from top state lawmakers on whom to back. He compared the dynamic to Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Joe Biden before the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary. described as a turning point for that presidential race.
Sobel, a veteran political analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area, put it more bluntly. “The California electorate has not embraced this race, so this could be a vote for the lesser of two evils,” he said. “This is a big field, and voters are not really thrilled with anybody.”
That lack of enthusiasm is exactly the kind of fuel that keeps undecided voters in play.
The winner would inherit a heavy ledger: debt, housing, wildfire, Medicaid
Whoever reaches the November general election will take over a state with a roughly $4 trillion economy, the world’s fourth-largest. They will also inherit the responsibilities of managing California’s multibillion-dollar debt. Medicaid access amid federal spending cuts. high housing costs and homelessness. and a persistent wildfire prevention and recovery crisis.
One in 8 Americans lives in California. Nearly half of its registered voters are Democrats; a quarter identify as Republicans, with the remainder calling themselves independents or having “no party preference,” according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
California’s national influence is enormous—yet its gubernatorial race hasn’t landed an endorsement from the biggest names with direct ties
Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon both came from there. and the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. former Vice President Kamala Harris. is also linked to the state. Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom are seen by polls and pundits as presumptive leading contenders for the 2028 Democratic nomination. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also hails from San Francisco.
Still, none of those national figures with California ties have endorsed anyone in the governor’s race.
Two notable endorsements did come from other corners: former influential San Francisco Mayor and longtime California State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown endorsed Steyer. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, endorsed former Congresswoman Katie Porter, her protege in the U.S. House of Representatives and her former student at Harvard Law School.
Democratic strategists worried about a Republican general election are recalibrating
For months. Democratic state leaders—including California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks—worried that a split field on their side could produce an all-Republican general election. Those concerns eased after former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell departed from the race in April over allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which he denies.
After the last state Democratic Party-sponsored poll was released May 19. Hicks told reporters. “We are clearly in a different place today than we were two months ago. Some candidates are surging and consolidating, others are following behind.” That May 19 poll showed Hilton ahead of Becerra by just 1%.
On the Republican side. Craig DeLuz. director of communications for the California Republican Assembly. previously told the outlet he hoped for an all-GOP general election with Democratic candidates splitting the vote. Now his focus has shifted toward making sure Hilton grabs one of the top two spots—especially after intense sparring with fading Republican candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
DeLuz said, “My question is, after all of the nastiness, can we come behind one candidate?” He added, “And if we don’t, the Democratic candidate is sure to win.”
Campaign debates didn’t deliver a clear break
In a string of debates stretching over several weeks. as many as eight candidates—including low-polling Democrats such as San José Mayor Matt Mahan. former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond—took the stage. No single candidate produced a major breakthrough, and attacks between contenders frequently exceeded time limits and triggered disruptions.
Thad Kousser, a University of California, San Diego political science professor, described the moment voters have been in. “There’s no one that you could say really won the debates this year. ” he said. adding that voters are still getting to know the field and that “we just haven’t seen a single one emerge.”.
Becerra’s rise after Swalwell’s exit shifted the race’s center of gravity
Becerra’s position changed after Swalwell left. McCuan called Becerra the “Democrat by default” in April, noting that before then Becerra was polling in single digits and struggling.
From there, Becerra remained steady, leaned on experience, and climbed. His campaign focus includes lowering the cost of health care, housing, child care and utilities, and fighting Trump.
Hicks, the California Democratic Party chair, said Becerra has capitalized on loyal Democratic voters, Latinos and even those with no party preference.
McCuan called Becerra “a safe pick.” He pointed to Becerra as the first Latino to serve on the powerful Ways and Means Committee and as Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.
Sobel, however, said there’s also indifference toward Becerra. “People feel ok about the guy,” he said. “They’re not over the moon about him, and they don’t dislike him,” Sobel added. “That can’t be said about Tom Steyer; you either like him or you don’t. and that’s basically the same with Katie Porter. Becerra simply doesn’t draw that kind of emotional or visceral response.”.
Steyer’s effort to pull the left lane is working—yet attention may be a double-edged sword
Steyer’s support has grown around a progressive platform that includes a proposal to eliminate corporate tax loopholes.
McCuan said Steyer moved more to the left because he wanted to edge out Katie Porter, and that strategy “worked.”
Still, Steyer may face a risk familiar to modern political campaigns: overexposure. Sobel suggested Steyer could be hurt by the sheer volume of ads. “Maybe Steyer has been too present. even for those who really initially liked his message. until it became: ‘OK. Tom. I’ve heard it. I get it,’” he said. Sobel added. “When you see somebody’s face every three minutes. it’s like. ‘Hey. can you back off a bit?’ ”.
Sobel credited Steyer with getting Oscar-winning actress and longtime environmental advocate Jane Fonda to narrate one of his ads, and actor Jon Hamm in another spot to present “a softer approach.”
Hilton’s pitch: challenge Democratic one-party control
Hilton’s momentum has been buoyed by Trump’s endorsement. McCuan described Hilton’s approach as wanting to “end the one-party rule” of Democrats in California and reverse state policies on energy and crime.
McCuan also noted that Hilton emerged ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, saying, “Hilton and Bianco say the same thing, but he says it without Bianco’s histrionics.”
A record-breaking ad war has reshaped what voters see—and what they tune out
With California’s status as the biggest state in the country, campaign costs are unusually high. This year’s gubernatorial contest is already the most expensive governor’s race on record and the fifth-most expensive non-presidential race on record for ad spending. according to AdImpact. a media-tracking firm.
At nearly $316 million, Steyer has become the ad spending centerpiece. AdImpact reported that Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, has committed more than $200 million of his own money toward ads across various media platforms as of May 29.
Opponents have accused Steyer of trying to “buy the governor’s office,” AdImpact said. Still, about $32 million has also been spent in ads attacking Steyer.
Other candidates are drawing outside money as well. Mahan has seen about $35 million from outside groups, including several Silicon Valley tech investors who encouraged him to run. Becerra has benefited from outside contributions totaling about $24 million.
Steyer accused Becerra of taking corporate money, pointing to Chevron, PG&E and Meta
Steyer responded to spending and influence criticism by urging voters to pay attention to the corporations supporting Becerra. In a May 27 post on X. Steyer said. “The corporate money flowing into this election tells you all you need to know: Chevron. PG&E and Meta are supporting Xavier Becerra because he represents more of the same − promising change while taking money from the same people blocking it.”.
Becerra, meanwhile, has pushed back by emphasizing his background as the son of Mexican-American parents who came to California “with $12 in their pocket” in contrast to Steyer’s wealth.
Becerra, also a former California attorney general, said in a social media post, “Tom Steyer made his billions off oil and coal,” while adding, “I made my career taking them to court … and winning.”
In the race’s temperament, supporters see experience; opponents see a dull competitor
McCuan offered a way to describe how the race is behaving now. He compared Becerra to “a slow-moving tortoise” and Steyer to “the twitchy hare.” McCuan said Becerra is a known commodity with the California Democratic delegation and has “been plodding along for a long time.”
He argued that Steyer may be “an excellent issues candidate,” citing climate and affordability work, but that he “isn’t a guy who commands the room or works every rubber chicken dinner at every county Democratic feed, like Becerra.”
For voters looking at the crowded ballot, the deciding question remains whether that contrast—between familiarity and volatility, between experience and spectacle—will land on the right side of the vote threshold.
With roughly 15% widely seen as the potential entry ticket for the top two finishers, the June 2 primary is set up for a moment that feels less like choosing a leader and more like measuring a tipping point.
California governor primary June 2 jungle primary Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Tom Steyer Gavin Newsom undecided voters political polling campaign spending AdImpact