A 23-year-old prospect once billed as a future centerpiece is struggling in his early 2026 big-league starts. Bubba Chandler has made nine starts and totaled just 42 innings, with inconsistent command and efficiency that has led to painful outings—most recentl
The expectations were supposed to arrive with Bubba Chandler. Not perfection—no 23-year-old would be ready for that—but something close to a top-of-the-rotation projection as the 2026 season got rolling.
Instead, the Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the early part of the year waiting for the version of Chandler they believed they were acquiring. He has made nine starts and logged just 42 innings. He has gone past five innings in only two of those starts, and reached exactly six innings only once.
His last start, May 16 against the Philadelphia Phillies, offered a snapshot of what the Pirates can’t keep absorbing. In only three innings, Chandler allowed five runs—four earned—while issuing four walks and surrendering three hits. Bryce Harper capped the damage with a 457-foot home run.
Don Kelly pointed directly to the mechanics of the problem as much as the result. “It was a tough start there in the first couple of innings, throwing 60-some pitches in two innings,” Kelly said. “To get him out after the third. it was just pitch count and volume. and he slipped on the mound there. Just didn’t want to push it there any further. We had enough to get through the game in the bullpen.”.
The Pirates are at the stage where “development” has started to cost real innings. Chandler’s struggles are showing up as inefficiency, but the inefficiency isn’t the root issue so much as the evidence.
Command is the central question. Chandler’s blazing heater and impressive secondaries can still make hitters uncomfortable, but they don’t do it often enough. His 42nd percentile whiff rate and 29th percentile chase rate reflect a starter who. too frequently. is failing to fool hitters when he needs to most.
The data on waste tells the story. FanGraphs has Chandler’s waste-zone percentage at 10%, meaning he throws pitches so far outside the zone they aren’t a real threat to the hitter. That ranks 67th out of 97 starters who have thrown at least 40 innings this year.
It’s the kind of miss that turns innings into uphill climbs. Chandler’s 16.4% walk rate for the season so far is the consequence of being that far off that often. And when he does miss while still in the zone, the ball doesn’t just “get away”—it travels. The Harper home run is one example of how the same issues can become damage in a hurry.
Chandler’s self-awareness is there, even if the results aren’t. After the Phillies start. he said of Trea Turner. Kyle Schwarber. and Harper—three hitters who repeatedly “gave him fits”—“They’re good players. I’ve watched them play for the last decade, and they’re all three really good. Just soft, pitching away, just not being who I am.”.
He also acknowledged the problem with the way hitters are able to work at-bats when the pitcher isn’t landing where he needs to land. Those three players weren’t only patient or opportunistic with their walks; they also drove big swings that did damage. That’s consistent with the season-long pattern that has followed Chandler from start to start.
The Pirates’ path forward is now clear, if not comfortable. The solution being discussed is a send-down to Indianapolis for a period of work on command and confidence. That wouldn’t be presented as punishment; it would be a reset—more reps. sharper focus. and the chance to regain conviction in his stuff.
The larger worry for Pittsburgh is time. If the Pirates want to compete. they can’t keep letting Chandler muddle through at the big-league level while his command wobbles and his execution forces the bullpen into earlier and earlier roles. It’s a hard call. but a necessary one—one that could protect both the pitcher and the club as the season moves beyond the point where patience alone can substitute for results.
For now, the Pirates are facing the same uncomfortable reality: a prospect ranked as the No. 3 right-handed pitching prospect by Baseball America going into 2026 can’t be treated like a promise indefinitely. The work has to show up on the mound—on innings. on efficiency. and on pitches that land where they’re supposed to.
Pittsburgh Pirates Bubba Chandler 2026 MLB season Indianapolis Baseball America Bryce Harper Trea Turner Kyle Schwarber pitching prospects