Paxton-Cornyn runoff – A bitter Texas U.S. Senate primary runoff on May 26 pits longtime establishment Sen. John Cornyn against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a MAGA-aligned firebrand whose momentum came only after President Donald Trump endorsed him at the 11th hour. With polls
By the time Texans wake up for the next step of this race, the GOP’s identity fight will already be on the ballot.
On May 26, voters will choose between two Republicans seeking the same Texas Senate seat: Sen. John Cornyn. a longtime Washington insider. and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. a controversy-driven populist aligned with Trump’s MAGA wing. The stakes aren’t theoretical. Whoever wins the runoff must then face Democratic Rep. James Talarico, a rising candidate many Republicans view as more formidable than he appears.
Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Paxton added fuel to a contest that already feels like two different parties fighting over one name. Paxton said the endorsement gives him a “bit of momentum” as he tries to win the seat.
Republicans are effectively choosing between old-guard experience and a combative, take-no-prisoners style that has defined Paxton’s rise—and, for some GOP voters, complicated what “serious” leadership looks like.
Cornyn and Paxton share little beyond a long career in politics, and critics argue neither has improved politics’ reputation. Cornyn’s backers say he builds coalitions and raises money well. Paxton’s base sees him as a bulldog who takes on the establishment.
The polling picture is tight. A RealClearPolitics average shows Paxton leading Cornyn by three points.
Cornyn’s road has been shaped by his posture in Washington. including gun and community-safety legislation after the Uvalde school shooting and a push on Juneteenth. After the Uvalde school shooting. Cornyn helped pass the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. gun safety and mental health legislation that some conservatives believed undermined their Second Amendment rights. Cornyn also sponsored the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act. making Juneteenth a federal holiday—legislation some conservatives view as more performative than substantive.
Paxton’s record carries its own weight, and it has been marked by legal setbacks and a high-profile impeachment fight. Paxton is among the few Republicans to run for U.S. Senate after being both indicted and impeached. A state securities fraud indictment against him was dismissed after he reached a plea deal. Senate Republicans acquitted Paxton following a lengthy and expensive impeachment trial in 2023, where his extramarital affair became a central focus. His personal life also turned into a major political headline later: his wife. a state senator. filed for divorce in 2025 after 38 years of marriage.
Despite that troubled record—and some see it as part of why his supporters rally to him—Paxton remains popular among MAGA Texans. One reason cited for his staying power is his aggressively litigious approach toward the Biden administration; he has sued at least 100 times.
That’s the core tension shaping the runoff: for many voters, the decision isn’t purely about who they want—it’s about who they fear will lose.
The general-election challenge doesn’t make unity any easier. The likely Democratic opponent is Rep. James Talarico, described by Republicans as alarming and portrayed as a candidate whose moderation could be a cover for progressive priorities.
Talarico has a record that Republicans say they can’t ignore. He is pro-abortion rights and has suggested there is a basis in Christianity for it. He called the right’s push to protect women’s sports a “far-right conspiracy.” In 2020. he posted on social media that White people spread the “virus of racism.” On immigration. Talarico referred to undocumented migrants as his “constituents” and encouraged immigrants and Texans to “fight back” against Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Still, some polling data suggests Talarico could be holding his own. CNN data analyst Harry Enten posted on X that “Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. ” saying Talarico is polling better than any Democratic Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Enten also wrote that. unlike Robert “Beto” O’Rourke in 2018. Talarico is ahead now. and that Paxton is “much less popular” than Cruz was. He added that Trump is less popular now than in 2018.
A May Texas Southern University survey also suggested a competitive general election. In a hypothetical matchup between Cornyn and Talarico, 45% of likely voters supported Cornyn compared with 44% for Talarico. In a Paxton-Talarico matchup, the race was tied.
One additional complication has become part of the runoff’s story: the anger inside the GOP over Trump’s endorsement decision. Politico reported that Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Paxton over Cornyn angered some Senate Republicans. with the argument that Paxton would leave Texas more vulnerable to Democrats.
Trump defended the choice publicly on May 20, telling reporters that he believes Paxton will defeat Talarico because he is “a very defective candidate, a candidate that believes in six genders. … And he’s a vegan. He’s a vegan in Texas. And you can’t get elected as a vegan in Texas.”
Paxton, for his part, doesn’t appear to see the general election as a risk he needs to soften. He told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham that Republicans have been in control since 1994 and that “not a single Democrat statewide” has won. Paxton said he’s won three statewide races in a row and added: “I’m so convinced once people know his views on the issues. I don’t think there’s a place for him to get elected statewide here in Texas.”.
The runoff also sets up a test for the winner. After May 26, the nominee will need to rally Republicans who didn’t support him in the runoff to win in November.
Whatever happens. the choice Texans face on May 26 isn’t just about candidates—it’s about what kind of politics the Republican Party is willing to reward. With Paxton and Cornyn presenting starkly different visions. the identity battle is playing out in real time. on real ballots. under the pressure of a tough Democratic opponent and numbers that suggest Democrats may not be as far out of reach as Republicans assume.
In the end, voters aren’t simply deciding who should represent them in Washington. Many are deciding who they believe can keep a Democrat from taking the seat—sometimes, critics say, at the expense of backing the “best” Republican rather than the most likely to win.
Texas Senate runoff Ken Paxton John Cornyn Donald Trump endorsement James Talarico GOP identity crisis U.S. Senate race MAGA election polling Texas politics