Misryoum reports seven OPEC+ countries have discussed raising June oil production targets, while real impact may be limited by shipping constraints.
A potential rise in OPEC+ oil output limits is taking shape, but market players are already questioning how much difference it will make.
According to Misryoum, seven OPEC+ member states have reached a preliminary understanding to increase the targeted ceiling for oil production by around 188,000 barrels per day in June. The adjustment would come after a larger move in May, with details tied to which countries are included.
The planned change is broadly similar to the May increase of 206,000 barrels per day, but with one part removed after the UAE decided to leave OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1.. One source speaking to Misryoum indicated the approach suggests the alliance is keeping its previous policy direction, even after losing a participant.
In this context, the key question is whether quota increases can translate into actual additional supply rather than just shifting numbers on paper.
Misryoum also notes that any increase could be more symbolic than practical because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf, remains constrained.. That constraint, highlighted in the reporting, may limit how quickly and how smoothly higher production ceilings affect deliveries to global markets.
A meeting of the seven countries is set for Sunday in an online format, where they plan to discuss June oil production levels. It is part of the ongoing monthly rhythm that helps countries align targets under the broader agreement.
OPEC+ members face not only the shared production quotas, but also additional restrictions for some participants. Misryoum reports that several nations, including the UAE in the past, had been gradually stepping away from voluntary limits and then meeting monthly to coordinate next-month plans.
Meanwhile, Misryoum says the UAE’s departure from OPEC and OPEC+ came with a rationale framed as strategic and linked to long-term economic considerations. The reporting also indicates that the organization was not informed in advance about the UAE’s intention to leave.
For markets, the difference between agreed output ceilings and deliverable volumes can matter as much as the headline figures.
At present, OPEC+ consists of seven countries, and the next step is the Sunday discussion on June levels. Whether that meeting results in meaningful changes for supply flows remains to be seen, especially as logistical limits continue to shape the real-world impact.